Sanctions and Ghost Fleets: A Comedy of Errors
Ah, the “ghost fleet”! Sounds like a horror movie, doesn’t it? Something that’d make the scariest Russian development
since potatoes. But alas, it’s just a cadre of ships that have learned to dance around European sanctions
like they’re auditioning for “Dancing with the Stars”.
The European Parliament’s latest resolution is calling for tighter measures against these crafty vessels, suggesting that
ships sailing without insurance should be sanctioned. I mean, what’s next? Reporting them to the maritime equivalent of
the DMV?
Cat and Mouse, or Cats in Tuxedos?
Frédéric Dopagne, the international law guru, explains it’s a “game of cat and mouse.” Though I reckon
it’s more like Bill Murray in “Groundhog Day”—the same old routine, over and over again, with the same results.
Keep in mind, while the EU introduces sanctions faster than an over-caffeinated squirrel, Russia is outsmarting them
like a cartoon fox in a hen house. And when they say the Russian economy will grow by 3.2% in 2024…
That’s not resilience, folks, that’s a magic trick!
Sanctioned but Not Forgotten
It seems like every time Europe pulls a sanction, Russia turns on its charm and sells oil to two of the world’s best
customers—China and India. Really, are we shocked? You know what they say about friendship: it’s all about give and take.
If this was a relationship, Europe would be the one sitting home with a tub of ice cream scrolling through old photos
while Russia is out partying it up with new friends.
“There are fractures in the international community currently. We are either in one camp or another.”
Dueling Sanctions and the Orbán Factor
So, how do countries like the EU plan to deal with this? In a riveting plot twist, they’ve resolved to impose better
sanctions on Russian oil transported by sea! Hold onto your hats, everyone! But here’s a kicker—getting all EU
member states to agree is like herding cats. Ever tried? It’s frustrating and highly unproductive, yet entertaining!
And then there’s Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian Prime Minister, throwing tantrums akin to a child refusing to eat their
vegetables—every time a new set of sanctions is on the table.
Now, I can’t help but admire the resilience of sanctions. They’re like that friend who keeps showing up to your
house party long after you want them gone. Why not just kick them out? Because they look like they’re having
a good time! Yes, they’re meant to symbolize support for Ukraine, but let’s face it, sanctions have become
the ultimate example of political theatre.
Effective But Maybe Not?
Fortunately, Dopagne is optimistic. He claims that the very attempt of Russia to circumvent sanctions proves they’re
having some effect. It’s like successfully inconveniencing your neighbor just enough to make them rethink borrowing
your lawnmower for the fifth time! So, while the economic fallout may not reach the heights of expectation, at least
the EU is in the game—playing, losing, and laughing all the way.
In the grand scheme of international relations, sanctions are just a part of the circus theme park we call politics.
So, grab your popcorn, settle in, and enjoy the show. Remember, folks, if things get any more ridiculous, we might just
end up in a sitcom starring world leaders—and that could very well be the most entertaining thing since reality TV
made its debut!
This fleet represents a notable instance highlighting Russia’s adeptness at navigating around the European sanctions which were enacted following its comprehensive invasion of Ukraine. In a resolution ratified this Thursday, the European Parliament has called for more precise measures targeting these vessels in forthcoming rounds of European Union (EU) sanctions. For instance, it has been proposed that ships operating in European waters without documented insurance be subjected to systematic sanctions. Additionally, a total ban on the importation of Russian fossil fuels, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), within member states has also been advocated.
This “ghost” fleet exemplifies the evident vulnerabilities in the European sanctions framework. “It’s inevitable because you can’t predict everything in advance. It’s a bit of a game of cat and mouse. Obviously, the country which is subject to sanctions will always try to exploit the loopholes, to circumvent them in one way or another.” explains Frédéric Dopagne, Professor of international law at UCLouvain. Economic sanctions are not perfectly effective, nor are they immediately effective. The European Union is trying, as different sets of sanctions are introduced, to complete and refine their regulations by plugging the gaps. It’s a process.“
While the majority of sanctions were enacted nearly three years ago, the Russian economy continues to exhibit a surprising degree of resilience. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a growth rate of approximately 3.2% for 2024. The Russians are clearly capable of generating hundreds of billions of dollars each year to finance their military-industrial complex. confirms the Professor. We know that they have succeeded in bringing the entire economy into line, which is now a war economy.“
According to Frédéric Dopagne, the war effort is “happily financed” by hydrocarbon exports, primarily directed towards China, India and other nations in the Global South. “I think this is what saves the Russian economy, despite the very broad G7 sanctions.“
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There are fractures in the international community currently. We are either in one camp or in another.
The impact of European sanctions is therefore limited as long as other major powers continue to import Russian oil and gas. “The European Union, on its own, is not in a position to take diplomatic action with these countries to try to convince them to stop. There is nothing to do, we have intrinsic limits in terms of geopolitical situation. There are fractures in the international community currently. We are either in one camp or another.“
In its resolution, the European Parliament has invited the G7 countries to more effectively implement the price cap imposed on Russian oil transported by sea. Frédéric Dopagne proposes the idea of banning the importation of refined petroleum products into a third country. “Apparently, Russian crude oil products were refined in Türkiye. Russia therefore continues to indirectly export oil to Europe. Now, to ban it, there is a question of political will.“
Frédéric Dopagne emphasizes the continual challenges that the EU faces regarding sanctions. “Any restrictive measure is decided unanimously within the European Union. However, we know that Viktor Orbán [le Premier ministre hongrois, NdlR] each time makes its cinema before the adoption of a new set of sanctions. And then, we also need material and human resources to implement and control the sanctions. All this does not happen overnight, it takes time. We are progressing little by little.“
Frédéric Dopagne is optimistic: “All these sanctions are nevertheless unprecedented in their scale. Ultimately, the fact that Russia is trying to circumvent the sanctions by all means shows that it is not completely indifferent. There is therefore clearly an effectiveness, but perhaps not as great as that which the European Union expects.“
What challenges does the European Union face in maintaining a unified front regarding sanctions?
Ince their own energy supply. Without collective action from the international community, these sanctions will fall short of their intended goals,” Dopagne warns.
As for the European Union’s unified front, it sometimes seems more like a patchwork quilt than an impenetrable fortress. Each member state has its own interests, and getting them all to agree is as challenging as getting cats to march in a single file line. There’s Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s maverick leader, throwing spanners in the works with every new proposed sanction. At this rate, he could be the star of his own political drama, “As the Sanctions Turn.”
In this grand farce, sanctions are not merely punitive measures; they are a reflection of geopolitical relationships and alliances. They may serve as a reminder that while countries may impose sanctions on one another, friendships can be more flexible—a bit like wearing sweatpants instead of tailored suits. This flexibility is particularly apparent as Russia continues charming its way into the good graces of China and India, two nations eager to capitalize on discounted energy resources.
Ultimately, the perseverance of both the EU and Russia in this high-stakes tug of war is likely to play out over years, if not decades. It’s a slow burn, a melodrama that continuously captivates audiences worldwide. So, keep your popcorn close, because one thing is for sure: the show is far from over, and the twists and turns of international sanctions and diplomacy will only keep getting more intricate.