The most effective strategy for Japan and South Korea to cultivate security that is self-reliant and independent from U.S. influence is to fortify their bilateral relationship, ultimately aiming for a formalized alliance. Underpinning this effort is the subtle ambition of Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, who envisions an ‘Asian NATO’ as a means to foster deeper security ties with South Korea. For both nations, achieving genuine security autonomy is imperative to alleviate the security dilemma generated by their military dependence on the United States, particularly in light of escalating apprehensions about growing U.S. isolationism.
Ishiba’s profound background in national defense informs his pragmatic perspective on Japan’s security landscape. His principal drive for pursuing security autonomy is firmly rooted in the need to protect Japan’s geopolitical interests amidst escalating threats posed by China, North Korea, and Russia. This strategic approach is especially pertinent given increasing uncertainty surrounding U.S. commitment to Japan’s defense. Furthermore, Ishiba’s proposition to deploy Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF) in Guam represents a practical step toward amplifying Japan’s military operational capacity in the region.
Despite his ambitious vision, Ishiba recognizes that real military independence for Japan through an ‘Asian NATO’ cannot be achieved overnight. Still, his commitment to fostering a framework of collective security in Asia indicates a long-standing approach, with South Korea positioned as Japan’s most credible regional ally. This message was positively received by South Korea. In his inaugural conversation with Ishiba, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol voiced his support for enhanced security collaboration with Japan, underscoring the shared democratic values and common geopolitical stakes both nations have. Both countries face significant threats from North Korea, whose accelerating nuclear capabilities are rapidly becoming a pressing concern. Adding to the peril is North Korea’s recent transfer of military technology from Russia, coupled with deepening ties with China, which have further intensified regional tensions.
Although Tokyo and Seoul currently rely on Washington for defense, their geographical proximity renders them the most immediate partners in the event of a security crisis. South Korea’s Three Axis system, encompassing missile defense and counterstrike capabilities, emerges as geopolitically more imperative for Japan’s defense against regional threats compared to the uncertain level of U.S. support. Thus, reinforcing bilateral defense cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo represents a strategically sound move for both nations.
However, Japan’s pursuit of strengthened security ties with South Korea does not inherently signify the exclusion of the United States. The motivation driving both countries toward greater security independence from their key guarantor stems from the complex security environment created by significant American involvement in the Asia-Pacific region. For South Korea, the inherent asymmetry of its alliance with the U.S. has constrained its influence. Washington has historically limited South Korea’s access to advanced military technologies while simultaneously pressuring Seoul to increase its financial contributions to the alliance. This dynamic has exacerbated South Korea’s military burdens and complicated its relationship with North Korea, prompting Seoul to cautiously pursue greater security autonomy.
Japan grapples with a similarly intricate dilemma. As South Korea stands ready for an eventual conflict with North Korea, Japan faces strategic decisions of its own. Should conflict arise in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. would require Japan’s consent to utilize its military installations for deploying forces to defend Taiwan. This scenario positions Japan in a precarious situation: granting approval risks provoking Chinese retaliation, while denial threatens to jeopardize the U.S.-Japan alliance—the cornerstone of Japan’s security assurances.
For Japan, the essential aim of military enhancement is to bolster deterrence and self-defense capabilities rather than provoke aggression. While strong ties with the U.S. provide essential security assurances, they may also constrain Japan’s independence in pivotal security decision-making. Therefore, Japan is justified in its quest for security autonomy, echoing South Korea’s pursuit of similar objectives. Yet, considering the limited military capacities of both nations, realizing complete security independence individually is impractical. The most viable pathway lies in fostering closer collaborative efforts between each other.
Nevertheless, a tighter alliance between Japan and South Korea could potentially lead them to prioritize the interests of East Asia, thus inherently challenging U.S. power projection in the Asia-Pacific theatre. It is therefore unsurprising that Washington does not fully align with Ishiba’s vision of an ‘Asian NATO’. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Kritenbrink conveyed concern, stating that the conversation surrounding collective security in this context is “premature” and reiterated that the focus remains on “enhancing the existing formal security arrangements” while bolstering informal alliances. However, does the current U.S.-led architectural framework truly serve to heighten security for Japan and South Korea?
The answer is a resounding no. While U.S.-Japan and U.S.-ROK security treaties formalize their alliances with America, their connections with other U.S. allies in Asia—such as the Philippines and Indonesia—lack the robustness of military alliances. In effect, Washington wields significant influence over these nations’ decisions regarding military aid should Japan or South Korea encounter a security crisis. Consequently, Tokyo and Seoul remain in a perpetual state of proving themselves as reliable allies to Washington to secure future backing.
A recent instance of this dynamic is Japan and South Korea’s considerable economic and military support to Ukraine, intended to bolster ties with the U.S.-led NATO framework. However, this strategy risks heightening fears of encirclement by China and North Korea, thus intensifying regional instability. Moreover, it strains the military resources of both countries, potentially undermining their own defense enhancements. By aligning too closely with U.S. and European priorities, both Tokyo and Seoul risk hampering their ability to navigate their own security and economic interests effectively.
As the United States remains ensnared in regional conflicts such as those in Ukraine and Gaza, its sway in Asia is inevitably waning, offering a strategic moment for middle powers like Japan and South Korea to re-evaluate their defense tactics amidst an increasingly multifaceted geopolitical landscape. While unresolved historical grievances may momentarily obstruct deeper security cooperation between the two nations, the escalating security threats in the region underscore that a fortified Japan-South Korea alliance is the most viable path to safeguarding both nations’ security while gradually attaining greater autonomy from American influence.
Further Reading on E-International Relations
How can Japan and South Korea enhance their security collaboration while maintaining strategic autonomy in the face of regional threats?
T-align-their-security-interests-to-counter-a-common-threat” data-wpel-link=”external” target=”_blank” rel=”follow external noopener noreferrer” class=”ext-link”>diluting their strategic autonomy in the face of regional threats.
As such, both nations find themselves balancing the need for U.S. security guarantees with the desire to maintain agency over their defense strategies. The evolving geopolitical landscape, especially concerning North Korea’s escalating threats and its partnerships with Russia and China, underscores the urgency for Japan and South Korea to deepen their security collaboration without completely relying on U.S. oversight.
the path forward lies in enhancing bilateral defense initiatives that leverage their respective capabilities, allowing both nations to address regional security threats more effectively. This collaboration could empower Japan and South Korea to strike a sustainable balance between supporting U.S. interests and asserting their own security priorities in an increasingly multipolar world.