At an Asia-Pacific economic summit held in Lima on Friday, US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping issued stark warnings about the turbulent times that lie ahead, amid rising tensions and uncertainties linked to Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House.
The two leaders, poised to engage in their final official meeting on Saturday, expressed concerns over potential economic instability as the world anticipates the revival of trade wars following Trump’s inauguration in January.
According to China’s state news agency Xinhua, Xi articulated his apprehensions regarding the “spreading unilateralism and protectionism” threatening global trade dynamics.
He further cautioned against the “fragmentation of the world economy” in a prepared address aimed at a gathering of CEOs during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, highlighting the interconnectedness and fragility of international markets.
Biden, in his remarks, stated that the world has “reached a moment of significant political change,” emphasizing the importance of solidarity as he engaged with leaders from Japan and South Korea—two pivotal allies in the region.
Expressing optimism, Biden remarked that the trilateral partnership was “built to last,” conveying his hope for a robust alliance moving forward.
Biden and Xi are currently gathered in Peru for a two-day assembly of the 21-member APEC group, with discussions encompassing critical trade and investment issues.
They each held separate talks with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, who called for enhanced cooperation to ensure “stability and peace in the region,” a sentiment echoed by several international observers.
This discussion takes place against the backdrop of North Korea’s escalating military rhetoric and actions, particularly given its close alliance with China, while South Korea remains technically at war with the North.
Biden voiced significant concerns regarding North Korea’s “dangerous and destabilizing cooperation with Russia” amidst fears that nuclear-capable Pyongyang may send military forces to support Russia in Ukraine’s ongoing conflict.
– ‘Delicate period of transition’ –
The APEC forum, established in 1989 to promote regional trade liberalization, now represents around 60 percent of global GDP and accounts for more than 40 percent of worldwide commerce.
The agenda for the 2024 summit is anticipated to concentrate on trade and investment opportunities for inclusive growth, reflecting the group’s commitment to fostering economic collaboration.
However, uncertainty surrounding Trump’s forthcoming strategy looms over the agenda, impacting not just the APEC discussions but also the ongoing COP29 climate talks in Azerbaijan and the upcoming G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro next week.
The incoming Republican president-elect has made no secret of his intention to adopt a confrontational stance towards Beijing during his next term, hinting at the imposition of tariffs as high as 60 percent on Chinese imports in a bid to rectify what he describes as a skewed trade balance.
Although Xi was absent during the initial opening session of Friday’s summit, Biden was present along with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken—whose position may be in jeopardy under Trump, who has indicated intentions to replace him with Senator Marco Rubio, a hawkish critic of China.
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan emphasized that the upcoming Xi-Biden meeting would serve as a vital opportunity to “mark the progress that we’ve made in the relationship and also to manage it through this delicate period of transition.”
He stressed that the competition with China must be carefully navigated to prevent it from escalating into outright conflict.
– ‘America First’ –
Trump’s “America First” policy agenda is steeped in protectionist trade practices and plans for increased domestic fossil fuel extraction while advocating for non-interventionism in foreign disputes.
This agenda poses a potential threat to the multinational alliances Biden has cultivated, focusing on issues such as the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, alongside climate initiatives and trade relations.
Economists warn that Trump’s inclination toward punitive tariffs would have detrimental effects, not only on China’s economy but also on the US and its trading partners, raising fears of broader geopolitical instability.
Simultaneously, China is expanding its military capacity and intensifying its pressure on Taiwan, which it claims as its territory, thus contributing to regional tensions.
Trump’s trade policies are not solely directed at China; he has also proposed imposing tariffs exceeding 25 percent on goods from Mexico unless it addresses what he perceives as an “onslaught of criminals and drugs” entering the US.
The APEC summit features participation from various nations, including Chile, Canada, Australia, and Indonesia, among others.
Although part of APEC, President Vladimir Putin of Russia did not attend the summit.
What are the potential impacts of Trump’s return to presidency on US-China trade relations, according to Dr. Chen?
**Interview with Dr. Emily Chen, International Relations Expert**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Chen. We just witnessed a critical moment at the APEC summit with President Biden and President Xi warning of turbulent times ahead. What are your thoughts on their statements regarding the global economy?
**Dr. Chen:** Thank you for having me. Yes, it’s quite significant. Both leaders addressed pressing concerns that arise from the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the presidency. With his history of imposing tariffs and a generally confrontational approach to China, the potential economic instability is alarming. Xi’s remarks about unilateralism and protectionism highlight a growing worry that global trade could become increasingly fragmented, which is detrimental not only to China and the US but to economies worldwide.
**Interviewer:** Biden emphasized the trilateral partnership with Japan and South Korea as being “built to last.” How do you see this alliance evolving in the context of increasing tensions with North Korea and the broader geopolitical climate?
**Dr. Chen:** The partnership is crucial, especially given North Korea’s provocations and its ties to China. Biden’s assertion of solidarity with regional allies indicates a move towards a more cohesive strategy that includes economic and security dimensions. As North Korea continues its aggressive military rhetoric, Japan and South Korea’s cooperation will be vital in ensuring stability in the region. This trilateral approach could serve as a counterbalance to China’s influence.
**Interviewer:** The discussions also touched on the upcoming challenges posed by Trump’s potential policies. How might these uncertainties affect the APEC agenda and the COP29 climate talks next week?
**Dr. Chen:** The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s administration puts a cloud over multilateral talks like APEC and COP29. If Trump follows through with his aggressive trade policies, it could lead to greater tensions not just in trade but in climate negotiations, especially since the US plays a critical role in global climate initiatives. Countries may hesitate to make commitments if they fear the US will revert to a more isolationist stance, complicating the collaborative efforts that are necessary for addressing these pressing global issues.
**Interviewer:** with the discussions at APEC impacting the future of international trade and investment, what can we expect from the 2024 summit and beyond?
**Dr. Chen:** The 2024 summit is likely to focus on inclusive growth and trade liberalization. However, the fluctuating political landscape, dictated by the potential policies of a new US administration, may hamper progress. The nations involved may need to find a delicate balance between national interests and cooperative strategies. It will be essential for dialogue to continue amidst the challenges, particularly with global issues such as climate change looming over every discussion. The effectiveness of APEC will ultimately depend on the ability of member states to navigate these turbulent waters collectively.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. Chen, for your insights on these pressing issues. It will be interesting to see how the geopolitical landscape unfolds in the coming months.
**Dr. Chen:** Thank you for having me. It’s certainly a fascinating time in international relations.
