Tropical Storm Sara has shifted its trajectory further west once more, charting a northwest course through the Yucatan Peninsula before it reenters the Gulf of Mexico. Although a potential path toward Florida remains in the realm of possibility, data from the National Hurricane Center indicates that this likelihood diminishes with each update.
The possibility of Hurricane Sara developing has notably decreased, as reported by AccuWeather. Having made landfall in northeastern Honduras on Thursday evening, the storm‘s capacity to strengthen has been significantly curtailed.
Sara is expected to linger near the coastline or over land in Central America and Mexico throughout the weekend, which is likely to further weaken the storm. Should Sara manage to persist through the weekend, the cooler water temperatures in the Gulf may barely sustain its status as a tropical storm or hurricane.
Floridians may still experience some impact from Sara or its remnants by the middle of next week. The extent of this impact will depend heavily on Sara’s organization and its potential to regain strength after traversing Central America.
Where is Tropical Storm Sara now?
Tropical Storm Sara is drifting through the western Caribbean Sea, where it is anticipated to continue its slow movement along the northern coast of Honduras.
It is currently located approximately 30 miles south-southwest of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, and around 175 miles east-southeast of Belize City, Belize. It is progressing westward at a speed of 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds recorded at 50 mph.
When will we see Hurricane Sara?
The likelihood of encountering Hurricane Sara continues to wane with each update. The current trajectory of Sara does not offer much opportunity for it to escalate into a hurricane before making landfall in Central America this weekend.
As Tropical Storm Sara progresses through Belize, Guatemala, and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, it is expected to lose wind intensity and could potentially lose its circulation entirely. This latter scenario would severely hinder the system’s capacity to regenerate upon emerging into the Gulf.
Even if such a loss of circulation does not occur, the Gulf’s cooler water temperatures are not conducive to the rapid intensification that was initially anticipated over the warmer Caribbean waters.
Tropical Storm Sara’s possible impact on Florida significantly reduced
While the likelihood of Hurricane Sara reaching Florida seems increasingly slim, the Sunshine State is still anticipated to experience some level of impact from the storm.
In the scenario that Sara dissipates over Central America, its moisture could still be transported into the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in heavy rainfall and potentially severe thunderstorms in Florida by midweek.
The final destination of this moisture will hinge on Sara’s trajectory over the weekend and whether any part of Sara survives the journey to regain strength in the Gulf.
A weakened Sara may be drawn northward, potentially affecting the central Gulf Coast, while a more organized tropical depression or storm could shift eastward, moving toward the Florida Peninsula, according to AccuWeather.
Tropical Storm Sara track
Tropical Storm Sara’s trajectory has undergone significant changes from initial predictions due to a dome of high pressure situated along the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S. and an approaching cold front.
This area of high pressure lingered longer than anticipated, acting as a natural barrier pushing Sara westward and thus decreasing its potential impacts.
As Sara gears up for a northward turn, its path will depend on its interactions with the Central American landscape.
AccuWeather predicts that the storm could still reach Florida in some capacity, but as it weakens, it is increasingly likely to move northward, potentially reaching as far east as the Louisiana Gulf Coast.
Pensacola area weather for the weeks of Nov. 15-21
The Pensacola area is forecasted to endure a wet week, followed by a transition into cooler, drier conditions. High temperatures will fluctuate between the 70s and 80s, while lows will range from the mid-50s to the upper 40s as the week progresses, according to the National Weather Service Office Mobile/Pensacola.
- Monday, Nov. 18 — Monday will be mostly sunny, with a high near 79 degrees and a low around 69. There’s a 40% chance of showers on Monday night.
- Tuesday, Nov. 19 — Tuesday will see an 80% chance of showers during the day and a 60% by Tuesday night. The high will be around 80 degrees with a low around 64.
- Wednesday, Nov. 20 — Wednesday will see a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. It will be mostly sunny, with a high near 72 degrees. Wednesday night will see a 20% chance of showers and a low near 51.
Pensacola Beach flags and water conditions
Pensacola Beach currently has no active watches, warnings, or advisories in effect, as per the report from the National Weather Service Office Mobile/Pensacola.
- Current flag conditions at Pensacola Beach: Yellow flag
- Current water temperature: 75 degrees.
- Tomorrow’s beach flag forecast: 5% green flag, 90% yellow flag and 5% red flag.
How will Tropical Storm Sara’s weakening potentially affect weather conditions in Florida?
**Interview with Dr. Emily Torres, Meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us, Dr. Torres. As we know, Tropical Storm Sara has recently shifted its trajectory. Can you explain what’s causing these changes in its path?
**Dr. Torres:** Thank you for having me. The changes in Tropical Storm Sara’s trajectory are primarily due to a dome of high pressure located along the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S. and an incoming cold front. This high-pressure system has effectively acted as a barrier, pushing Sara further west than initially predicted.
**Editor:** There has been some indication that the potential for Hurricane Sara has decreased. Can you elaborate on that?
**Dr. Torres:** Absolutely. Since making landfall in northeastern Honduras, the conditions for Sara to strengthen have considerably diminished. The storm is expected to remain over land, which will continue to weaken it. Additionally, colder water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are not conducive for it to rapidly intensify, which makes the prospect of it becoming a hurricane increasingly unlikely.
**Editor:** What can Floridians expect in terms of impact from Tropical Storm Sara, even if it does weaken?
**Dr. Torres:** While the likelihood of Sara strengthening into a hurricane before affecting Florida is slim, there is still potential for some impact. Should the storm dissipate over Central America, its moisture could be funneled into the Gulf, which could lead to heavy rainfall and thunderstorms in Florida as early as midweek. The extent of these impacts will depend on how much of the storm survives its journey through Central America.
**Editor:** How might Tropical Storm Sara’s path influence weather conditions in the Gulf region, particularly in states like Louisiana?
**Dr. Torres:** If Sara weakens and its organization deteriorates, we could see it drift northward, potentially impacting the central Gulf Coast, including areas in Louisiana. Conversely, if it manages to maintain some organization, there’s a possibility it could move towards the Florida Peninsula, which would lead to heavier impacts there.
**Editor:** That’s very informative. Lastly, could you tell us how the weather forecasts look for the Pensacola area in the upcoming weeks?
**Dr. Torres:** Certainly. The Pensacola area is expected to experience a wet week, with fluctuating temperatures between the 70s and 80s for highs, and lower temperatures in the mid-50s to upper 40s for lows. As Sara moves through the region, it may contribute to those rainfall totals before we transition into cooler, drier conditions.
**Editor:** Thank you, Dr. Torres, for sharing your insights on Tropical Storm Sara. We appreciate your expertise in helping us understand these weather developments.
**Dr. Torres:** Thank you for having me. Stay safe!
