Meteorologists are on alert for the possibility that a low pressure area in the western Caribbean will evolve into a tropical cyclone in the coming days.
Hurricanes and other tropical systems that form in the Caribbean at this time of year tend to move north or northwest. Hence the importance for Cuba of this tropical wave with potential for cyclonic development.
Although the system has not yet organized enough to be classified as a tropical depression, the United States National Hurricane Center (NHC) has raised its development forecasts to 40% in the next 48 hours and to 80% in the future. of seven days.
The NHC notes that this disturbance, currently a tropical wave located in the center of the Caribbean Sea, is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
As it slowly moves westward, environmental conditions around it – such as high water temperatures and low wind shear – appear favorable for the system to gradually develop into a tropical depression towards the end of this week. From there, the system is expected to move towards the northwest or northinfluenced by high pressure patterns and the interaction with North American cold fronts.
Rubiera’s Warning
The renowned Cuban meteorologist, Dr. José Rubiera, has spoken about the situation in a recent video, in which he highlighted: “Although we still do not have a fully developed system, the conditions in the western Caribbean are conducive to the formation of a cyclone. tropical. We must closely monitor its evolution.”
Rubiera emphasized that, in November, although cyclones are less common, they can form and affect the region, recalling historical examples of cyclones at this time of year.
Potential trajectories and affected areas
Although it is early to establish a definitive track, typical patterns for systems in this area of the Caribbean in November suggest possible movement toward the northwest or north.
This direction could take the system towards the Gulf of Mexico, Cuba and the Southern United States, according to experts. Meteorological authorities in neighboring countries are on alert, and the NHC has urged communities in the Western Caribbean to monitor the evolution of the system in the coming days.
Furthermore, the recent experience with Hurricane Rafael, which impacted western Cuba, has left great sensitivity to possible additional meteorological events in the region.
Journalist Lázaro Manuel Alonso also reported through his social networks that the Cuban Institute of Meteorology (Insmet) is closely following this disturbance due to its current position and the favorable conditions for cyclonic development.
Recommendations and perspectives
Although a cyclone has not officially formed, the NHC and meteorological experts recommend residents in the region stay informed and prepared for any changes in the forecast. The hurricane season, which officially ends on November 30, may still feature active systems that could affect the region.
In conclusion, while conditions continue to favor cyclonic formation, the system continues to move slowly, and is likely to remain in the area through the weekend. Communities in the Western Caribbean should remain vigilant and follow updates from local and regional weather authorities.
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**Interview with Dr. José Rubiera, Renowned Cuban Meteorologist**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Rubiera. There’s increasing concern about the low pressure area in the western Caribbean. Can you provide us with an update on its potential development?
**Dr. Rubiera:** Thank you for having me. Yes, we’re closely monitoring this low pressure area. Although it hasn’t yet reached the status of a tropical depression, the National Hurricane Center has indicated a 40% chance of development in the next 48 hours, which could rise to 80% over the next week.
**Editor:** What makes this particular system noteworthy for Cuba and the Caribbean region?
**Dr. Rubiera:** Tropical systems that form in the Caribbean usually move north or northwest, which is particularly significant for us in Cuba. As this system develops, we must be vigilant, as it could have direct implications for weather patterns and safety in the region.
**Editor:** You mentioned favorable environmental conditions for development. Could you elaborate on what those conditions are?
**Dr. Rubiera:** Certainly. Currently, we have high water temperatures and low wind shear in the western Caribbean. These factors create an ideal environment for a tropical system to strengthen. We expect this system to slowly drift westward, and if conditions remain conducive, it could evolve into a tropical depression by the end of this week.
**Editor:** Historically, tropical cyclones can occur in November, even if they are less common. Could you shed some light on this?
**Dr. Rubiera:** Absolutely. While November is generally not peak hurricane season, it is not unusual for cyclones to form. History gives us numerous examples of late-season storms affecting our region, and we must remain prepared.
**Editor:** What steps should residents of Cuba take to prepare for any possible developments?
**Dr. Rubiera:** I advise residents to stay informed through reliable weather sources and prepare emergency plans and supplies, just as they would during the peak hurricane season. Monitoring updates from the National Hurricane Center will also be essential as the situation unfolds.
**Editor:** Thank you for your insights, Dr. Rubiera. We appreciate your expertise on this developing situation.
**Dr. Rubiera:** Thank you for having me. Let’s hope for the best while remaining cautious and prepared.
