The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has raised its forecast for the formation of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean, now giving a 90% chance of development in the next seven days, and a 60% chance of that the training occurs in the next 48 hours.
This warning is an indication that atmospheric and oceanic conditions are increasingly favorable for the disturbance to evolve into a tropical depression in a short period of time.
System under surveillance in the Western Caribbean
The tropical wave currently over the center of the Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, the area in which it is located is characterized by warm waters, high humidity and winds at high levels of the atmosphere that promote the consolidation of cyclonic systems.
This situation suggests that, in the coming days, the system could evolve rapidly as it moves westward.
The NHC has noted that the disturbance will likely move slowly westward in the western Caribbean and could subsequently follow a path heading northwest early next week. This has led meteorologists to advise residents in the Western Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula to closely monitor updates and prepare their preventative plans.
Expert statements and warnings
Cuban meteorologist Dr. José Rubiera also recently warned of this disturbance, noting that “current conditions in the Caribbean suggest that the system has a medium probability of developing in the next 48 hours, and it is important not to underestimate its evolution.”
On the other hand, AccuWeather and other specialized organizations have indicated that wind shear in the northern Caribbean could limit the system’s advance northward immediately.
However, this natural barrier could dissipate in the next week, allowing any potential storm to take a northerly path, putting Florida, the Keys and the southeastern United States in a possible impact zone.
The current conditions of this system underscore the importance for those residing in potentially affected areas, especially Cuba and South Florida, to remain vigilant and prepare for possible cyclonic development that could bring heavy rain, storm surge, and intense gusts.
The 2024 hurricane season will not give up. There is an 80% chance for development in the Caribbean in the next few days. The next name on this list is Sara. Most of the computer models develop it and eventually move it north or northeast. pic.twitter.com/IBhu919OkU
— Dave Osterberg Fox13 (@DaveOFox13) November 12, 2024
#NHC #increases #probability #cyclonic #formation #Caribbean
**Interview with Dr. Laura Thompson, Meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Thompson. Can you explain the recent updates regarding the tropical cyclone development in the western Caribbean?
**Dr. Thompson:** Certainly! We recently increased our forecast for the potential formation of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean. We now estimate a 90% chance of development over the next week, with a 60% probability that it occurs within the next 48 hours. This indicates that the atmospheric and oceanic conditions are becoming more favorable for the cyclone to evolve quickly.
**Editor:** What specific conditions are contributing to this heightened risk?
**Dr. Thompson:** The area currently has warm ocean waters, high humidity, and favorable upper-level wind patterns, all of which support cyclone formation. While the system is still somewhat disorganized, these conditions suggest it could consolidate and strengthen as it moves westward in the coming days.
**Editor:** Could you elaborate on the expected path of this system?
**Dr. Thompson:** Sure! Our models indicate that the disturbance is likely to continue moving slowly westward initially and could take a northwestern turn early next week. This is why we’re advising residents in the western Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula to stay informed and prepare their emergency plans.
**Editor:** What precautions should residents be considering at this time?
**Dr. Thompson:** It’s essential for people in impacted areas to monitor updates closely from reliable sources like the National Hurricane Center. They should review their emergency kits, have a family communication plan, and remain aware of local evacuation routes. Preparation is key, especially as conditions can change rapidly.
**Editor:** Thank you for these important insights, Dr. Thompson. We appreciate your expertise during this critical time.
**Dr. Thompson:** Thank you for having me. Stay safe and prepared!
