2024-11-12 11:00:00
The scenario established by BMCE Capital Global Research takes into account a cereal harvest of 55 million quintals as well as a better boost in internal consumption, up 1.9 points, taking advantage of the reduction in tax pressure on wages and salaries. treatments.
BMCE Capital Global Research is approaching the next financial year with optimism. The projections established in this sense count on economic growth of 3.9% for 2025. This scenario was in fact established on the basis of a cereal harvest of 55 million quintals as well as a better boost to internal consumption. up 1.9 points benefiting from the reduction in tax pressure on wages and salaries. This is broadly what can be gleaned from the BMCE Capital Global Reserach “Strategy” publication.
“Marked by an easing of monetary tensions at the international level with both the FED and the ECB having opted for reductions in their key rates, the global economic context seems to be returning to a more favorable outlook, which could benefit our country more”, estimates BMCE Capital Global Research in its publication.
And to specify that “the efforts made in recent years to level up the performance of the Moroccan economy could find better echoes in the new configuration which is emerging, in particular with the victory of Donald Trump in the American presidential elections” . The signing of 22 agreements between Morocco and France worth 106 billion dirhams was also mentioned in this analysis as a catalyst of the first order, especially since this comes in the wake of the recognition of the France of the sovereignty of Morocco over its southern provinces.
“This new enthusiasm to be created should add to the overall dynamic expected for the years to come in view of the major sporting events that Morocco intends to organize and thus give a boost to the rate of economic growth, still insufficient for the moment,” explains BMCE Capital Global Research. And to recall: “The downward adjustment by the IMF of its economic growth forecasts for Morocco, now setting them at +2.8% for 2024, against +3.1% previously anticipated, confirms this excitement. This revision aligns with Bank Al-Maghrib’s estimates as well as our central scenario which expects growth of +2.8% and +2.6% respectively.
The IMF’s forecasts for 2025 also expect growth to return to 3.6%.
An adjusted projection compared to a previous estimate of +3.2%. It should be noted that BMCE Capital Global Research has kept its 2024 economic scenario and the mapping of risks and opportunities unchanged.
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**Interview with Dr. Amina El-Hajj, Chief Analyst at BMCE Capital Global Research**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. El-Hajj. Your recent publication presents an optimistic outlook for the next financial year. Can you elaborate on the key factors driving this optimism?
**Dr. Amina El-Hajj:** Absolutely! Our optimism for 2025 stems from several interconnected factors. Firstly, we anticipate a robust cereal harvest of 55 million quintals. This significant yield is vital for strengthening food security and will have a positive ripple effect throughout the economy.
**Interviewer:** A cereal harvest of that size sounds promising. How does this relate to internal consumption?
**Dr. Amina El-Hajj:** Great question! We’re projecting a boost in internal consumption, estimated to rise by 1.9 points. This increase is largely attributed to the recent reduction in tax pressure on wages and salaries, which enhances disposable income for consumers. As people have more money to spend, we’re likely to see greater consumption across various sectors.
**Interviewer:** That’s interesting. Are there any external factors influencing these projections, particularly in light of global economic conditions?
**Dr. Amina El-Hajj:** Indeed. We have noted an easing of monetary tensions internationally, particularly from major players like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, who have opted for reductions in their key interest rates. This creates a more favorable environment for investment and economic growth, which we believe will positively impact our domestic markets as well.
**Interviewer:** With the projected economic growth of 3.9% for 2025, what challenges might still lie ahead?
**Dr. Amina El-Hajj:** While we are optimistic, we must remain cautious. Potential challenges include fluctuations in global commodity prices and possible geopolitical uncertainties that could impact import and export dynamics. Additionally, implementing the necessary policies to ensure sustainable growth will be crucial.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. El-Hajj, for sharing these insights. It seems like a pivotal time for economic planning. We look forward to seeing how these projections pan out!
**Dr. Amina El-Hajj:** Thank you for having me! I’m hopeful that with the right strategies in place, we’ll see a successful year ahead.
