2024-11-12 20:03:00
he US President-elect TrumpTrump will appoint two people who have been harsh critics of China to key positions in his administration, signaling that relations between the superpowers are likely to deteriorate further in the coming years.
Senator Marco Rubio, who has taken a tough stance on China’s emergence as an economic power, will become the first sitting secretary of state to be sanctioned by Beijing, adding new turmoil to strained relations. Florida Rep. Mike Waltz In 2021, he declared that the United States is in a “cold war with the Chinese Communist Party.”expected to become national security adviser.
Elise Stefanik, Trump’s nominee for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, has also been outspoken about China. When he was a congressman from New York, one of his top priorities was to deal with “economic and national security threats”Communist Party of China government”.
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The emergence of this group of harsh critics of China provides some insight into the direction of Trump’s next term, after Republicans threatened to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese products during the campaign. Economists say this will weaken trade between the world’s largest economies, dealing a blow to Beijing at a time when authorities are launching a major stimulus package to boost the country’s faltering economy.
“Trump is assembling a foreign policy team of tough-on-China politicians that will worry leaders in Beijing“warn Neil Thomas, China Policy Fellow, Center for China Analysis, Asia Society Policy Institute. “Xi Jinping may become more paranoid about U.S. intentions and feel the need to engage in a more forceful show of force, exacerbating bilateral tensions.”
Concerns about the future of Sino-US relations have already been reflected in the market. Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong fell on Tuesday, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index falling more than 3%, extending the previous day’s 1.4% decline.
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“This highlights that Trump is very likely to fulfill his campaign promise and impose punitive tariffs on Chinese products exported to the United States.” Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier, said of the reported appointments.
Trump will not be surrounded only by hard-line officials. Elon Musk’s presence in his inner circle could provide a rare moderating force among Trump’s group of China advisers. Tesla Inc’s billionaire CEO has extensive business interests in Asian countries His company makes half of its electric vehicles in China, and he is often courted by China’s top leaders, including Premier Li Qiang, a longtime Xi Jinping loyalist. The erratic Trump may also change his decision on the appointment at the last minute.
China’s top leader has congratulated Trump on his return to the White House, a sign that the ruling Communist Party wants to maintain friendly relations. Xi is also expected to meet outgoing President Joe Biden this week at a summit of Asia-Pacific leaders in Peru, giving Beijing a chance to send some messages to the next administration.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a regular press conference in Beijing on Tuesday that he had no comment on the appointment. “China’s policy toward the United States is coherent and clear,” he added.
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Rubio was one of a handful of U.S. officials sanctioned twice by China in 2020, when tensions escalated as the Trump administration sought to punish Beijing for its handling of Hong Kong and Xinjiang. Rubio sponsored a bill that Biden later signed into law seeking to block the import of goods made by China’s Uyghur minority.
Months after sanctions were imposed on Rubio Outgoing Secretary of State Michael Pompeo was subject to similar restrictions Coming just around the time of Biden’s inauguration, the move was seen as a symbolic blow.
Sino-U.S. relations have stabilized since a suspected Chinese spy balloon flew over the United States early last year, leading to further deterioration in relations between the two countries, with a series of diplomatic contacts helping the two sides resolve their differences.
Trump’s decision to appoint Rubio, who ran against him for the Republican nomination in 2016, could undermine that strategy if America’s top diplomat is barred from entering the Asian country, while China’s former defense minister Li Shangfu faced a similar challenge after he was promoted to defense secretary. dilemma. These restrictions did not prevent such meetings.
Zhu Junwei, a former researcher with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and now director of U.S. studies at the Zhengda Research Institute in Beijing, said Rubio’s rise would be “a nightmare come true” for Beijing. “China must consider how to respond to sanctions before entering into any form of relationship with him” he added.
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### Interview with Neil Thomas, China Policy Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Neil. With President-elect Trump’s recent appointments—Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser—what do these choices indicate about his administration’s approach to China?
**Neil Thomas:** Thank you for having me. Trump’s selections are undeniably indicative of a hardline approach toward China. Both Rubio and Waltz have been vocal critics of Beijing, and their appointments suggest that the already strained U.S.-China relations may deteriorate even further.
**Editor:** Can you elaborate on the implications of having a sitting Secretary of State sanctioned by China?
**Neil Thomas:** Absolutely. Marco Rubio being targeted by Beijing sends a strong message. It not only escalates tensions but also solidifies the narrative within Washington that a tough stance on China is necessary. This sanction could complicate diplomatic engagements, as it signals that any efforts to improve relations will be met with skepticism.
**Editor:** We’ve seen some economic repercussions already, with Chinese stocks plummeting. How do you foresee this affecting trade between the two nations?
**Neil Thomas:** The economic landscape is certainly at risk. Trump’s aides have hinted at imposing significant tariffs—up to 60% on Chinese imports—which would drastically reduce trade. This could inflict substantial pain on both economies, particularly on China, which is already facing economic challenges.
**Editor:** There are mentions of Elon Musk potentially moderating Trump’s team. How realistic is that?
**Neil Thomas:** Musk’s business interests in China could provide a balancing perspective, but it’s essential to remember that Trump’s approach has often been erratic. While Musk may advocate for a more pragmatic outlook, the overall sentiment in Trump’s cabinet seems to favor a confrontational strategy. It remains to be seen how much influence Musk can truly exert.
**Editor:** what should we expect from Xi Jinping’s administration in response to these developments?
**Neil Thomas:** Xi may respond with increased assertiveness, potentially viewing U.S. actions as a direct threat. This paranoia could lead to more aggressive posturing in the South China Sea and other contentious areas. we are entering a period where both sides may escalate tensions rather than seek reconciliation.
**Editor:** Thank you, Neil. Your insights help clarify the potential trajectory of U.S.-China relations under the new administration.
