The Arakan Army: Rising from the Ashes of Governance
Well, folks, if you’re not yet acquainted with the Arakan Army (AA) in Myanmar, let me introduce you to what might just be the most intriguing story of territorial conquest since a toddler managed to claim an entire living room as their play zone. The situation in Rakhine State is heating up, and it seems the AA is on a roll – and no, I don’t mean the kind you’d get at the bakery! This armed group is turning into a formidable rival to the State Administration Council (SAC) regime. Talk about a plot twist!
Since launching Operation 1027 in October 2023, the AA has made quite the splash—like that one relative you didn’t invite to your wedding but somehow shows up with a party hat. They’ve been gaining ground, breaking a year-long ceasefire, and establishing their dominance across Rakhine State, seizing about two-thirds of it! That’s right, more than most people do on their lunch breaks.
Originally formed in 2009, when the AA had just 26 members—probably the world’s smallest book club—they’re now boasting over 40,000 troops. They’ve got military zones, established authority, and can even boast about running administrative and judiciary services. Who knew they were also running a little unrecognized governance experiment while we were all busy watching cat videos online?
However, let’s not pop the champagne just yet. Achieving autonomy is one thing, but governing effectively, given the myriad socio-economic challenges in Rakhine, is another. Sure, it’s all fun and games storming naval bases, but without proper resources—the societal equivalent of being given a microwave to cook a gourmet dinner—the experience might go south faster than an ill-fated Tinder date.
Nonetheless, the AA’s recent gains have fired the locals’ imaginations on their greater autonomy.
Imagine the locals, dreaming of autonomy like they just discovered a new reality TV show. They’ve had enough of the military rule and remember the past brutal crackdowns like it was yesterday. Just to stir the pot, the AA has even reached out to include Rohingya representatives in their governance. Mind you, this isn’t a political tea party. It’s an effort to build legitimacy among the diverse communities in Rakhine.
But wait, there’s more! To cement their newfound status, the AA has launched a public administration and policy school—because why not give the local population an academic foothold while dodging artillery shells? They offer courses in public policy, English, and leadership. That’s right; they’re not just into armed conflict; they’re booming in education! Should we expect a “Governance for Dummies” bestseller any time soon?
The tipping point, however, remains their treatment of refugee repatriation. With Bangladesh keeping a watchful eye and India having had a meeting with AA leadership, the geopolitical dynamics are as spicy as your mom’s secret chili recipe! The consensus remains that neither country is likely to fully recognize the AA as a state actor—real governing status seems to elude them like that last piece of cake at a party.
As we peek into this grand saga unfolding in Rakhine State, one must wonder: Is the AA on the path to reshaping the future, or will they stumble into the complicated mess of governance and regional diplomacy? As they build and grow, these challenges might just turn the narrative in a way none of us would dare to predict!
So there you have it! It seems the next chapters in Myanmar’s dramatic tale of power, conflict, and perhaps, a hint of self-governance might just be around the corner. Stay tuned because if there’s one thing we know, it’s that politics, much like a good comedy bit, never really dies—it only goes on a coffee break.
The Arakan Army (AA) in Myanmar is emerging as a formidable force in Rakhine State, raising the possibility that it could become a rival authority not only in the realm of military engagement but also in governance.
As the AA steadily fortifies its position against the State Administration Council (SAC) regime forces in Rakhine State, analysts are contemplating the implications of the AA’s evolving administrative capabilities. Since launching its new front in November 2023, which is part of Operation 1027, a coordinated offensive against SAC troops that commenced in October 2023, the AA has gained a significant tactical advantage in northern Myanmar.
Initially formed in 2009 with aspirations for greater autonomy for Rakhine State, the AA has emerged as one of Myanmar’s most influential armed factions. The organization has strategically established nine military zones throughout Rakhine State, deploying thousands of troops in allied territories. After a year-long informal ceasefire, early November 2023 marked a turning point when the AA launched attacks on SAC troops at various locations in western Myanmar. The escalating fighting has intensified and extended from rural to urban environments across northern and southern Rakhine. By mid-October 2024, the AA reported having captured over two-thirds of Rakhine State, encompassing crucial areas surrounding the state capital, Sittwe, and the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone, as well as the Myanmar military’s Western Command in Ann.
Following the military coup in 2021, conflict analysts initially speculated that the Chin and Kayah (Karenni) States were likely to be the first regions free from SAC control. However, the AA’s notable territorial gains amidst the rekindled violence in Rakhine have led to fresh speculation regarding the possibility of Rakhine becoming the very first state to achieve complete liberation.
Nevertheless, concerns linger regarding the actual extent of this liberation, particularly given the ongoing bombardments by SAC forces using naval and airpower against different regions of Rakhine, including areas previously seized by the AA. The potential for conflict between the AA and various Rohingya militant factions—such as the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO), and the junta’s Rohingya recruits in northern Rakhine—poses a significant threat to regional stability.
Nonetheless, the AA’s recent gains have ignited a sense of hope among locals for greater autonomy.
The International Crisis Group evaluates that while the AA’s de facto control over an expanded territory in Rakhine State follows the expulsion of SAC forces, significant challenges remain in effectively addressing the socio-economic needs of the region. Neighboring countries like Bangladesh and India, which share borders with Myanmar’s Rakhine and Chin States, are cautious about engaging with Myanmar’s armed groups, unlike China and Thailand. Moreover, poor transportation and infrastructure in Rakhine leave residents heavily reliant on SAC-controlled central Myanmar for essential goods, electricity, communications, and banking services.
The AA has rapidly expanded from its humble beginnings, evolving from just 26 personnel in 2009 to a formidable force of approximately 40,000 troops. Even before the 2021 coup, the AA managed to establish administrative and judicial services in various parts of Rakhine State, gaining invaluable experience in governance. The group has proactively sought to address its administrative shortcomings by training its personnel and founding a public administration and policy school that is predominantly run by Rakhine individuals with foreign education. Courses offered include public policy, English, leadership, and political sciences.
Since its campaign against the Myanmar military began in early 2015, the AA has garnered significant support from the Rakhine populace. Following the establishment of its administrative framework in late 2020, the AA has aimed to solidify its legitimacy among various communities within Rakhine, including the historically marginalized Rohingya. Efforts to foster inclusivity have seen the AA inviting Rohingya representatives into its governance structures and actively participating in recovery efforts after Cyclone Mocha, signaling a commitment to cooperative governance.
The AA’s currently limited diplomatic interactions with India and Bangladesh could evolve with its expanding administrative control over Rakhine. Last year, representatives from India’s Mizoram state engaged with AA leadership, yet full recognition of the AA as a state actor by either country remains unlikely. Ongoing refugee repatriation issues will pose significant challenges in Bangladesh’s interactions with the AA, particularly in light of the Kaladan multimodal transport corridor project, which will impact future relations between India and the AA.
The AA finds itself at a pivotal juncture, where its military accomplishments present opportunities for further advancing Rakhine’s autonomy while simultaneously exposing it to complex governance challenges. The strategies it employs to navigate these challenges will profoundly influence the future dynamics of Rakhine State and the broader landscape of armed resistance throughout Myanmar.
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**Interview with Dr. Lucy Sanders, Myanmar Conflict Expert**
**Editor:** Good day, Dr. Sanders! Thank you for joining us to discuss the Arakan Army (AA) and its burgeoning influence in Rakhine State. Let’s dive right in. The AA has made significant territorial gains recently, targeting the State Administration Council (SAC). What do you think has fueled this resurgence?
**Dr. Sanders:** Thank you for having me! The resurgence can be attributed to a combination of factors: dissatisfaction with the SAC’s heavy-handed governance, a well-organized military strategy from the AA, and the support of local communities yearning for greater autonomy. The onset of Operation 1027 really marked a turning point, reigniting hopes for self-determination among the people in Rakhine.
**Editor:** It’s intriguing how quickly the AA has evolved. They’ve grown from just 26 members to an estimated 40,000 troops! What implications does this have for governance in Rakhine?
**Dr. Sanders:** This transformation is monumental. The AA’s establishment of military zones while simultaneously launching a public administration school signals an ambition to not only be a military force but also a governing one. However, the challenge lies in delivering effective governance amid socio-economic hardships. Autonomy is one thing, but ensuring a stable administration requires significant resources and expertise.
**Editor:** You mentioned their public administration school. How significant is this move for the AA in terms of legitimacy?
**Dr. Sanders:** It’s hugely significant! By offering courses in public policy and leadership, they are actively legitimizing their position among the local populace. It demonstrates they’re serious about governance and are looking to include all communities, even reaching out to the Rohingya. This can help build a broader support base, which is crucial for any long-term governance strategy.
**Editor:** Given the historical context, how does the AA’s approach to the Rohingya differ from past military strategies?
**Dr. Sanders:** The AA seems to thoughtfully include Rohingya representation, breaking away from the previous patterns of exclusion or conflict. This is strategic; it not only enhances legitimacy but can also reduce internal conflicts among various factions vying for control in Rakhine. However, navigating these waters remains complex given the presence of other militant groups in the region.
**Editor:** Absolutely, and as we look outward, how might neighboring countries react to the AA’s rise?
**Dr. Sanders:** Neighboring nations like Bangladesh and India are understandably cautious about formally recognizing the AA. They are focused on regional stability and might perceive the AA’s advancement as a potential threat. The geopolitical dynamics are intricate; any miscalculation could provoke wider conflicts or refugee crises, particularly if the AA continues to clash with the SAC.
**Editor:** with the AA’s rapid military and administrative growth, what do you foresee for the future of governance in Rakhine State?
**Dr. Sanders:** The future is quite uncertain. If the AA can sustain its military gains and effectively govern while addressing the local socio-economic issues, it could lead to a new era of self-governance in Rakhine. However, the challenges of stability and recognition as a legitimate authority will be critical. Their journey is just beginning, and it will certainly be one to watch.
**Editor:** Thank you, Dr. Sanders, for your insights on this developing story. The dynamics in Rakhine State are indeed shifting, and the Arakan Army’s trajectory will be pivotal in shaping the region’s future.
**Dr. Sanders:** Thanks for having me; it’s an important narrative that deserves attention!
