2024-11-11 12:30:00
While the official organizational chart sets out an action plan to tackle the 2025 budget, the outlook is starting to look darker as the countdown to the end of the parliamentary year progresses with just three weeks left. Are these due to force majeure or intentional actions by the government?
As the official work plan begins to address budget issues, the surprise The presentation of the project was made by the President and not by the Minister of Economyas usual. After the first trial, the plan did not leave much precision, treatment was postponed and discussions continued Aerolineas Argentinas privatization. The organizational chart provides that the Budget Committee meets weekly and is chaired by Jose Luis EspelteBut most never materialize, and when they do, they focus more on private negotiations with lawmakers than working on the bill.
A press conference was announced on October 30 and expected to provide more details, but was paused minutes before the scheduled time. The reason was reportedly due to discussions between pro-MPs and the government on the issue. Intends to cancel funds allocated to political parties.
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One of the assumptions is that we are getting new extensions to the Budget Act. (This will be the first time the government has done this for the second time) as the priority in the final weeks of parliament is to avoid setbacks.
It’s about the opposition party DNU 846 Through a project prepared by the Kirchnerist Senator Jose Maya. The statute allows the executive branch to renegotiate debt without going to Congress and grants “super power“For Caputo, this is a key part of his strategy to negotiate debt maturities next year, allowing him to avoid the demands financial management law. The opposition denounced this as making it possible to extend payment terms by raising interest rates,
what might mean Total debt has increased significantly. Milei government will face during 2025 The maturity amount is US$17.285 billion The relationship between capital and interest, 55% of which corresponds to public securities and 45% to obligations of multilateral organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank.
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On the other hand, although there are some outstanding issues such as the appointment Ariel Food As far as the Supreme Court is concerned, the ruling party achieved a number of legislative goals in its first year in power. The ratification of the Basic Law, albeit with some modifications, represented a first victory in a shipwreck that at times seemed destined to sink. Moreover, although justice left some provisions that had no impact on labor issues, Millais still managed to Keep DNU 70/23 in effectwhich allowed for the closure of Télam and progress towards adjustment and deregulation. On the other hand, the administration boasts that it has controlled inflation to around 3.5 points.
When contacted by Radio Colonia, Guillermo FrancosThe Chief of Staff reiterated that “No special meeting planned”. In addition, the official emphasized the fact that the 2025 budget must be approved: “We believe that Congress’s approval of the budget submitted by the executive branch will be a good institutional sign. But If you do not do this, we will continue with the current extension“, hold on.
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The government doesn’t seem to have much enthusiasm Risking a goal in the last 5 minutes of the game. What’s more, Argentina’s social humor tends to intensify in the face of December, given that the holidays are just around the corner.
Let us remember that one of the sensitive points is also university conflict. After two massive mobilizations (one in February and another in October) and a wave of takeovers of educational institutions After university funding was rejectedthe movement has entered deadlock Waiting for new events to awaken him again.
The government managed to calm the situation by negotiating with rectors, developing an operating cost budget and reaching a joint agreement of 6.8% for university teachers. However, one of the sensitive points remains the confirmation by university representatives that the 2025 budget project will cut the funding required for operations by half and foresee an allocation of 0.51% of GDP to public universities, which is the lowest level in recent years, even in 2024 ( 0.53%).
In the strategy of the Liberal Alliance Party, which has only 39 representatives and 6 senators, negotiating with members who focus on dialogue is the key to maintaining parliamentary initiative. Vetoing sensitive laws, such as university budgets or pension benefits reform, has been a method heavily criticized by the opposition, by creating a dynamic in which the government is able to maintain restrictions on sensitive industries with the support of less than a third of parliament. Harsh adjustment.
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Not approving next year’s budget is also seen as an attack on parliament because it gives the ruling party a degree of discretion to rigorously defend progress on its zero-deficit-focused economic plan.
The opposition is seeking approval of a bill that would restrict the DNU and prevent them from imposing themselves on parliament as a controversial minority. The project is unlikely to see the light of day this year, but DNU 846, which would give Caputo “superpowers,” is more likely to be rejected because while the House of Representatives may not approve it, the Senate will be empowered to do so in La Libertad Avanza. Difficult overview discuss it in. “Blocking both measures is more important than approving the budget” said a lawmaker from the ruling party, according to a note published on Parliamentary.com.
Committee debate on the budget has yet to resume. This Monday, the excuse could be the legislative Workers’ Day holiday. We’ll see if any news comes this week to clarify the situation.
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**Interview with Political Analyst Dr. Laura Castro on Argentina’s 2025 Budget Challenges**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us, Dr. Castro. There’s a lot of uncertainty regarding the 2025 budget in Argentina as we approach the end of the parliamentary year. What are your thoughts on the current situation?
**Dr. Castro:** Thank you for having me. Yes, the urgency surrounding the 2025 budget has intensified as we get closer to the deadline. The government’s approach, particularly the decision to have the President present the budget instead of the Minister of Economy, suggests a significant shift in how they want to communicate and manage this process. It raises questions about their strategy and intent.
**Interviewer:** Do you think the postponements and lack of clarity are a result of external factors or internal governmental actions?
**Dr. Castro:** It appears to be a mix of both. The ongoing negotiations within the government, as evidenced by the last-minute cancellation of a press conference, indicate a struggle with unity and direction. However, the focus on private negotiations with lawmakers instead of public discussions points to intentional tactics by the government, possibly to sidestep more significant scrutiny.
**Interviewer:** The potential for extending the Budget Act and the controversy surrounding DNU 846 are significant. What impact could these measures have?
**Dr. Castro:** Extending the Budget Act for a second time would be unprecedented and likely reflects the government’s desperation to avoid disruption. Meanwhile, DNU 846 gives sweeping powers to renegotiate debt, which critics argue could exacerbate Argentina’s already troubling debt situation. The potential for rising interest rates and deferred payments could place greater financial burdens on future administrations.
**Interviewer:** With the social tensions and the university funding crisis, what do you think will be the public response if the budget cuts continue?
**Dr. Castro:** Public sentiment is already tense, and the upcoming holiday season often exaggerates social frustrations. If the proposed cuts to university funding materialize, we may witness renewed protests, especially given the recent mobilizations against funding reductions. Education has become a vital concern for many, and cutting funding could lead to significant unrest.
**Interviewer:** Lastly, how do you see the government’s future strategy? Do they have sufficient support to navigate these challenges?
**Dr. Castro:** The government is at a critical juncture. They need to secure congressional support for the budget to maintain credibility. However, with their slim majority and divided opposition, it will be challenging. If they continue to face resistance, they may resort to more extreme measures, and that could lead to intensified conflicts, both politically and socially.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. Castro, for your insights. It seems Argentina’s budgetary process will continue to unfold with significant implications ahead.
**Dr. Castro:** Thank you for having me. It’s a critical time for Argentine politics, and we’ll be watching closely to see how it develops.
