The Climate COP Troika: Friends or Fossil Fuel Foes?
Ah, the climate COP meetings! Where countries gather not just to save the planet but to put their own spin on eco-friendly rhetoric. This spectacular theatre is brought to you by the “Troika” – Azerbaijan, the United Arab Emirates, and Brazil, who are kind of like the climate conference’s equivalent of a boy band. You know, all flashy suits and smooth talks, but when you look closely, you realize they’re still singing the same old tune: “Let’s invest in fossil fuels!”
Yes, they gathered under the grandiose banner of cooperation and decarbonization, post-COP28, to plan a roadmap for “mission 1.5.” I mean, if you squint, it looks a bit like they’re attempting to steer the ship away from climate disaster. But let’s not kid ourselves; these chaps are still revving their engines and investing in oil and gas infrastructure like they’re competing in a Formula 1 race, and we’re all going to end up in the nearest wall!
Fossil Fuel Olympics: All Medals, No Progress
According to a sobering report from Oil Change International, the “Troika” seem to be in a wrestling match with their commitments. While they stand on stage, waving flags for decarbonization and high-fiving the audience with promises, back at home, they’re planning significant increases in oil and gas production. Brazil’s upping its game by 36%, while the UAE and Azerbaijan aren’t far behind with increases of 34% and 14%, respectively. It’s like celebrating losing weight while stocking up on donuts! Classic case of ‘Do As I Say, Not As I Do’.
Now, here’s the kicker: combined, their production growth is projected to be around 32% by 2035, resulting in almost a third of the carbon emissions from new oil and gas projects for 2024. Yes, you heard that right. It’s like promising to cut down on sweets while sneaking midnight snacks in the kitchen.
Talk is Cheap, but Carbon is Priceless!
Now, let’s talk COP28. They had the audacity to mention fossil fuels in their final text for the first time—I’m telling you, a real “we’ve turned a corner” kind of moment! But then again, if you peer into the details, it’s all a bit underwhelming, like watching a magician pull a rabbit out of a hat but the rabbit is actually a sock puppet.
Romain Ioualalen of Oil Change International reminds us of the yawning gap between ministerial rhetoric—which is as rehearsed as a West End show—and actual ground-level actions. It’s a world where oil seems to be the magical elixir that nourishes economies, and until these countries can show a real commitment to cut fossil use, they’re not convincing anyone. And, let’s not forget—the rich countries bear a significant part of the blame, particularly those who have the financial and technical means to pull off a tantrum-free transition. But they seem to treat climate action like that one relative who always promises to show up for Thanksgiving dinner but never does!
Leading by Example: Will They or Won’t They?
But wait! There’s still hope! There’s a chance for our “Troika” to play it straight at COP29 and show the world what real change looks like. We’ve seen the likes of Colombia—who’s strutting its eco-stuff and promising no new oil, gas, or coal projects, despite the economic risks. Talk about a mic drop!
If Azerbaijan, the UAE, and Brazil can take notes from Colombia and actually lead by example, they could turn this whole ‘political theatre’ into a genuine movement. Otherwise, they’ll just continue to be the punchline of the climate change joke. Because if you can’t find a way to phase out fossil fuels while hosting a climate change conference, are you really hosting one at all?
So here’s to hoping the “Troika” finds their moral compass before throwing their next climate party! Because, at this point, it’s not just the planet that needs saving; it’s their credibility too.
The Troika, comprising Azerbaijan, the United Arab Emirates, and Brazil—hosting nations of past, present, and future climate COPs—recently convened under their collaborative banner. Yet, despite their vocal commitment to decarbonization, a damning report from Oil Change International highlights a stark contradiction: these nations are significantly investing in fossil fuel ventures.
Azerbaijan, the host for COP29 scheduled from November 11 to 22, 2024; the United Arab Emirates, which organized COP28 last year; and Brazil, set to host COP30 in 2025, united immediately after COP28 to forge a new roadmap aimed at achieving the climate target known as “mission 1.5.” This initiative seeks to maintain global average temperature increases below 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels.
While the official narrative surrounding this alliance purports to bolster inter-country cooperation and accelerate the decarbonization of their economies, aiming to adhere to the Paris Agreement, the reality reveals a contradictory approach. Despite their diplomatic role suggesting a commitment to phase out fossil fuels, evidence indicates that the Troika plans to expand its own oil and gas infrastructures significantly, as outlined in a critical report by Oil Change International.
Nearly a third of carbon emissions emitted by new oil and gas projects approved for 2024
COP28, held in Dubai, marked a notable advancement with discussions centered around fossil fuels incorporated into the COP textual framework for the first time. Romain Ioualalen, representing Oil Change International, characterized the inclusion of this compromise as a significant accomplishment—“a hard-fought victory aimed at establishing a clear framework for a necessary exit from fossil fuels.”
Despite this apparent political progress, the practicalities on the ground tell a profoundly different narrative. Ioualalen lamented the glaring disparity between the statements made by representatives at COP28 advocating for fossil fuel reduction and the actual policies being enacted within their borders. “What we are witnessing is a shocking disconnect between rhetoric and reality,” he asserted.
Brazil’s ambition to increase its oil and gas production by 36% by 2035 starkly contrasts the UAE’s projected growth of 34% and Azerbaijan’s plan for a 14% increase. According to Oil Change International, the Troika collectively indicates a projected 32% rise in production by 2035 compared to current levels, resulting in nearly one-third of the carbon emissions emerging from newly approved oil and gas projects for 2024.
Moreover, the overall carbon footprint of the Troika’s fossil fuel activities doubles when incorporating emissions generated from their exported oil and gas, an aspect not reflected in their national contributions to the United Nations, as highlighted by the NGO.
COP29: a marked lack of ambition in the world to reduce fossil energy production
The negativity surrounding the current policies is underscored by a warning from the NGO’s campaign manager: “A pressing concern is evident in every scientific report, from the International Energy Agency (IEA) to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), indicating that new oil, gas, and coal projects run counter to global greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets adopted by countries.” The IEA points out in its 2024 Energy Outlook that fossil fuel production must decrease by 55% from 2023 to 2035 to remain under the crucial 1.5°C threshold, demanding a 45% reduction in oil and gas, and a staggering 72% decrease in coal production.
Ioualalen articulates further concern regarding the apparent impotence of political action: “This lack of ambition poses a significant challenge to the credibility of climate policy.” He emphasizes that responsibility does not solely fall on the Troika, as countries such as the United States, Canada, and Australia bear a greater share of the blame for not transitioning away from fossil fuel dependence.
Lead by example at COP29
A critical component of enacting genuine change lies in these affluent nations leading by example. “As long as more economically stable countries fail to demonstrate a commitment to abandoning fossil fuels, persuading developing nations, which rely heavily on these industries, becomes an uphill battle,” he cautioned. Alarmingly, the United States, Canada, Australia, Norway, and the United Kingdom account for half of the global expansion in newly planned fossil fuel deposits projected through 2050, as reported by Oil Change International in another analysis.
Despite the troubling trends, the NGO maintains that there remains an opportunity for the Troika to shift their course at the upcoming COPs by revising their national decarbonization strategies. They point to Colombia’s recent pledge under President Gustavo Petro, wherein the nation declared an end to new oil, gas, or coal projects, despite these sectors constituting 10% of its GDP.
Illustration: Canva
Emperature increase. Yet the actions of these nations suggest a trajectory that disregards this fundamental requirement for climate stability.
The reality is stark: while the Troika engages in high-profile discussions about climate goals and decarbonization, their plans to ramp up fossil fuel production reveal competing priorities. It’s a classic case of lip service in the face of an undeniable crisis—a juggling act between economic interests and global responsibility that’s increasingly difficult to sustain.
As the world gears up for COP29, the spotlight will be firmly on Azerbaijan, the UAE, and Brazil to see if they can pivot from their current paths of contradiction to genuine leadership in the climate space. The challenge lies not only in managing domestic pressures and economic needs but also in restoring trust within the global community that their commitments are more than mere rhetoric.
In summation, the path forward requires these member nations of the “Troika” to shift from a focus on fossil fuels to a meaningful embrace of renewable energy and sustainable practices. Failure to do so risks leaving them as the punchline in the narrative of climate action—a cautionary tale of what happens when ambition is outpaced by contradictory actions. For their credibility and our planet’s future, let’s hope they choose wisely as they prepare for their next climate gathering.
