2024-11-11 06:32:00
MEXICO CITY (AP) — Negotiating with a politician like Donald Trump is no easy task. Furthermore, things get complicated when the person doing this is a woman with a personality that has nothing to do with the Republican Party and is leading a country that is being harshly attacked by Americans.
“Trump is not going to negotiate in a way where everyone wins a little bit,” explained Martha Bárcena, Mexico’s ambassador to Washington from 2018 to 2021, when Republicans threatened to crack down on immigration if immigration was not stopped. She had to do this when Mexico imposed tariffs. “For him, negotiating and winning negotiations was about imposing his views on the other party.”
As Mexico faces a second term under Trump’s presidency, few countries can match its experience of being the target of Trump’s wrath: threatening to close borders, impose tariffs and send troops to fight cartels.
Not to mention his promise of mass deportations On the first day of his new term This would not only pose a humanitarian challenge to the Mexican government, but would also deal a very heavy blow to its economy, as the remittances Mexicans receive from relatives in the United States are one of the country’s main sources of income.
While Phase 2 may be similar to Phase 1, with tariffs avoided as the Mexican government quietly caved to U.S. immigration pressure, things have changed, and not necessarily for the better.
Trump’s speeches are now more aggressive than in the past, his party has greater support in Congress, and he does not have a leader with a similar personality in front of him like Andres Manuel López Obrador , but a policy, Claudia Sheinbaumwith whom it is more difficult to have a chemical reaction.
López Obrador, a charismatic and approachable former president who didn’t hesitate to call Trump a “friend,” shared a transactional political vision with Trump’s opponents: You give I I want, I give you what you want.
Yet López Obrador was forged in the reciprocal politics of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the hegemonic party for almost the entire 20th century, while the current president was born into a family of left-wing activists Growing up in 1989, he was politically forged in the radical student movement.
“Claudia is more ideological than López Obrador, so the thing is, I think she might respond to Trump’s policies in a more nationalistic and patriotic light, both in terms of organized Crime, immigration or tariffs,” said former President Arturo. He served as Mexico’s ambassador to the United States from 2007 to 2013.
Furthermore, he worries that the relationship could become complicated given Trump’s frequent use of misogynistic rhetoric.
Currently, Sheinbaum has achieved some favorable results and has become First world leaders to talk to Trump Congratulations to him after the win.
But during Thursday’s call, the American did two things that provide clues as to what the future of the relationship might look like: He made his priorities clear by raising “border issues,” but said nothing more. Details – According to Scheinbaum and with a greeting to López Obrador, the current president’s mentor, his speeches and promises were endorsed by Scheinbaum and some believe he will maintain them from the shadows that power.
Not everything is for the worse.
he Cross-border trade between Mexico and the United States It’s having its best moment, with more than $800 billion traded annually and U.S. companies relying on Mexican companies more than ever.
But the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada, is coming under review, and Mexico has made legal changes to its constitution that Trump could use to demand a renegotiation of parts of the deal.
Sheinbaum confirmed that “there is a strategy and there is dialogue with the United States and President Trump,” and assured that if there were disagreements, they would know how to resolve them. But he also said his government would not be intimidated.
“When problems arise, we will face them with dignity, pride and knowing who we represent, our great people,” he said.
Past experience has not served well.
A book by Mike Pompeo, the former secretary of state under Trump, describes how Mexico’s then-leading negotiator, former foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard, caved in late 2018 At his request, he accepted Asylum seekers in U.S. may be deported to Mexico (even if they are not Mexican) while waiting for the case to be resolved.
For former ambassador Bárcena, accepting the plan was a big mistake because “it sets a very dangerous legal precedent” in the face of the current situation. promise of deportation.
According to Pompeo, the only thing Ebrard asked for was that the deal not be made public, something the Mexicans denied, although he did say that through negotiations he avoided a worse deal: Mexico would be “safe Third countries, for migrants who cross their territory, must apply for asylum in Mexico, not the United States.
Now Ebrard is economy minister and is expected to lead a Mexican delegation in a review of the T-MEC, something Trump has derided. (“I’ve never seen anyone bent like this,” Americans said of Mexicans long ago).
Ebrard argued that border closures and tariffs would also harm the United States, making it necessary to negotiate “with cold blood and intelligence.”
“I’m optimistic, and I’m not saying it’s going to be easy … but the relationship with President Trump is going to be great,” he said Thursday. “What unites us? Well, what unites us.
Diplomats interviewed saw this optimism and threat minimization as dangerous.
Bárcena believes it is a mistake to approach certain issues from “economic rationality,” for example, arguing that Mexican immigrants are key to the U.S. economy, and that “Trump’s prevailing logic on immigration is the logic of national security and cultural identity.” .
Trump’s other key concerns, the restoration of U.S. jobs and growing competition with China, also passed through Mexico.
Foreign automakers have set up dozens of factories in Mexico, and some Americans worry that Chinese companies may follow suit and take advantage of existing trade rules to export to the United States.
Sheinbaum’s propaganda doesn’t help Constitutional amendment López Obrador proposed Recently approved judicial reforms According to the US government, this could end judicial independence, which is a requirement of the T-MEC.
Furthermore, “if they proceed with the elimination of independent regulators and autonomous organizations (a move in the parliamentary process), it will be a new violation of T-MEC,” Saruhan said. “And then that’s going to make things worse. Obviously, the biggest piece is going to be China and China’s footprint in Mexico.
Then there’s the fight against organized crime.
Scheinbaum took office on October 1 and, like his predecessors, would never accept independent U.S. military operations on Mexican soil.
However, he seems to have given up by default López Obrador’s strategy of not confronting drug cartels There are signs that the fight against drugs may require a greater effort, such as the recent seizure of more than 300,000 fentanyl pills, compared with just 50 grams requisitioned per week in 2020.
But Bárcena warned that “confidence in cooperation between Mexico and the United States has been lost when it comes to security,” citing the controversy that followed Mexico’s arrest as an example. Two key leaders of the Sinaloa drug cartel July. This is an area where Trump may “want to start almost from scratch,” he added.
While confirming that Trump has fulfilled all his promises, Saruhan firmly believed that “he will shout loudly and raise a big stick.”
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**Interview with Martha Bárcena, Former Mexican Ambassador to the U.S.**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Martha. As a former ambassador to the U.S. during the Trump administration, what are your thoughts on the impending challenges for Mexico with Trump potentially returning to the presidency?
**Martha Bárcena:** Thank you for having me. My concerns are significant. Negotiating with Trump is always complex, and it’s even more so with a new president in Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, who has a different ideological stance than Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Trump’s past approach was very much about imposing his viewpoint, and that hasn’t changed.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned Claudia Sheinbaum’s ideological differences. How do you think this will impact U.S.-Mexico relations compared to López Obrador’s more transactional relationship with Trump?
**Martha Bárcena:** López Obrador had a certain charm and a pragmatic approach, which allowed him to navigate some of the harshest negotiations. In contrast, Sheinbaum is expected to take a more nationalistic stance. This could lead to a less conciliatory approach, especially when addressing contentious issues like immigration and tariffs.
**Interviewer:** Given the historical context of trade and tariffs during Trump’s first term, what potential economic repercussions do you foresee for Mexico?
**Martha Bárcena:** The economic stakes are enormous. The remittances from Mexican workers in the U.S. are vital for our economy. If Trump follows through with threats of mass deportations or tariffs, it could severely impact Mexico’s financial well-being. Last time, the potential for trade disruption forced Mexico into unfavorable negotiations, and the current climate isn’t looking much better.
**Interviewer:** What do you think of Sheinbaum’s stance on engaging with Trump, as indicated by her recent conversations with him?
**Martha Bárcena:** While it’s promising that she is open to dialogue, it’s essential she approaches these discussions from a position of strength. Ignoring the historical context of Trump’s negotiating style could lead to significant pitfalls. It is not just about economic rationality; it’s about navigating a relationship heavily influenced by national security and cultural identity concerns in the U.S.
**Interviewer:** There are reports suggesting that Sheinbaum might not be intimidated by Trump’s aggressive rhetoric. How important is this posture in future negotiations?
**Martha Bárcena:** It’s crucial. However, it’s important to remember that standing firm does not mean ignoring the realities of power dynamics. Sheinbaum’s approach needs to blend assertiveness with strategic diplomacy, taking into account Trump’s unpredictability and the support he has in Congress.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Martha. Your insights into this highly dynamic relationship between Mexico and the U.S. are invaluable, especially within the context of a potential Trump presidency.
**Martha Bárcena:** Thank you for having me. It’s a pivotal moment for both nations, and I hope for a future where mutual respect can guide our negotiations.
