WASHINGTON — As the United Nations (UN) climate conference COP29 begins on Monday in Baku, Azerbaijan, international delegates will be confronted with the ramifications of the re-election of former United States President Donald Trump. Countries attending the conference are desperate to carve out a path forward that bypasses Trump’s historically hostile stance toward emissions-cutting measures, amidst his announcement to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement once again.
While delegates arrive in Baku, discussions are already underway for COP30, which is set to take place in Brazil in 2025. This meeting is poised to mark a turning point, as it will be the first COP convened in the heart of the Amazon rainforest, introducing a new global climate framework where the United States could find itself sidelined and China potentially taking a more prominent role. The spotlight on Brazil creates immense responsibility for its leadership in addressing climate change.
“The challenge of leading COP30 next year, in the heart of the Amazon forest, is immense,” stated Marina Silva, Brazil’s environment minister and chief climate negotiator, during an event at the World Bank and IMF meetings in Washington, DC, in late October. Silva emphasized that the event is being referred to as “the green COP,” highlighting its anticipated focus on environmental issues.
For two consecutive years, COP has been hosted by oil-rich autocracies with climate plans deemed “critically insufficient,” according to the Climate Action Tracker research group. Brazil presents a notable contrast; although it ranks among the world’s top 10 oil exporters, it is also a global leader in the implementation of new wind and solar energy projects, and it has made substantial climate commitments. Observers are hopeful that Brazil’s leadership in the negotiations will facilitate more ambitious goal-setting. Without such advancements, the planet risks even deeper crisis.
The year 2025 also marks the 10-year anniversary of the Paris Agreement, which saw nearly 200 nations commit to curbing global warming to levels that would prevent catastrophic outcomes capable of reshaping the world map. However, countries are not on track to meet these targets. Global temperatures have already increased by 1.3 degrees Celsius since the preindustrial era. Despite advances in expanding green energy sources worldwide, fossil fuel consumption reached record highs last year, and greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise alarmingly, with the UN warning that such trends could lead to an “irreversible” rise in temperatures of up to 3.1°C.
Silva emphasized, “If we are ambitious about announcing goals, we have to be ambitious about implementing them.” She asserted that “Brazil’s COP must focus on CO2 emissions reduction.”
Marina Silva’s role in this critical timeframe is underscored by her humble beginnings. Born in poverty on a rubber plantation in northern Brazil, she did not learn to read or write until her teenage years. Rising from these circumstances, Silva emerged as a prominent activist and joined Lula’s government during his first term.
At 66 years old, Silva’s political ascent is marked not by sheer charisma but by a character described as “demure,” “genuine,” and “profoundly ethical,” according to colleagues. Her unwavering advocacy for the Amazon and its indigenous communities has earned her admiration both in Brazil and internationally. Silva’s influence has been pivotal in prompting President Lula to elevate climate issues on his agenda following his election victory in 2022. Last year, Brazil pledged approximately a 53% reduction in emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels and committed to halting deforestation by 2030.
Her advocacy has shifted Lula’s viewpoint regarding the importance of Amazon conservation and Brazil’s potential role as a leader in global environmental efforts, noted Steve Schwartzman, associate vice president for tropical forest policy at the Environmental Defence Fund. Silva continually reminds her colleagues that immediate action is essential to address the climate crisis, which André Corrêa do Lago, secretary for climate, energy, and environment at the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, corroborates.
As Brazil prepares to host COP29 and COP30, Silva’s credibility can serve as an asset in navigating complex discussions about fossil fuel usage, climate financing, and other divisive topics. However, it remains uncertain if these efforts will overcome the longstanding global political stalemate, particularly between developed and developing nations.
Lula and Silva’s relationship has evolved over decades, marked by periods of estrangement and renewed collaboration, having both been affiliated with Brazil’s Workers’ Party. In her twenties, Silva collaborated with activist Chico Mendes, who advocated for land rights for communities displaced by cattle ranching. Mendes’ assassination highlighted the Amazon’s deforestation issues, spurring Silva’s transformation into a leading Amazon activist and adept politician.
Upon Lula’s election in 2003, Silva was named environment minister, and under her leadership, Brazil launched its inaugural deforestation action plan, credited with reducing deforestation by over 80% between 2004 and 2012, all while agricultural production surged. This demonstrated that fostering agricultural growth does not necessitate extensive deforestation.
During Lula’s subsequent term, however, Silva resigned, weary of the continual backlash against environmental protections both within and outside the government, particularly regarding large-scale Amazon development endorsed by Lula. Silva bravely campaigned for presidency unsuccessfully in 2010, 2014, and 2018.
Then came Jair Bolsonaro, whose administration implemented significant rollbacks on forest protection policies, leading to soaring deforestation rates. Bolsonaro’s right-wing tactics ultimately reunited Silva and Lula, and her assistance in the 2022 elections was critical to Lula’s victory over Bolsonaro.
Brazil exemplifies the paradoxical nature of climate progress; while it generates around 90% of its electricity from renewable sources, it remains a major oil exporter. Interestingly, the primary contributor to its emissions stems from land use changes, prompting Silva to push for Brazil to achieve its goal of eliminating deforestation as early as 2030, an initiative that has gained traction despite the need to restore governmental authority against illegal deforestation after the Bolsonaro administration.
Official government data reports a 50% reduction in deforestation last year, with further significant progress this year, as Silva detailed in her interview with Bloomberg Green. By the conclusion of Lula’s term in 2026, she insists the framework for “zero deforestation by 2030” must be in place.
In the Amazon region, numerous impoverished families have resorted to clearing trees to cultivate cash crops like sugarcane and soybeans for survival. Ending deforestation would require alternatives to ensure that rainforest communities can maintain and enhance their quality of life.
Corrêa do Lago highlighted Silva’s awareness of the social dimensions tied to environmental matters. Beyond merely preserving ecosystems, Silva is committed to uplifting the livelihoods of people involved. She advocates for a balance between combating deforestation and enabling profitable conservation methods.
Lula’s administration has introduced a state-run carbon market initiative aimed at elevating conservation efforts, although this effort has stalled due to resistance from conservative lawmakers aligned with the cattle and agriculture sectors, which thrive on extensive tree-clearing practices.
The Amazon Fund, initially launched by Lula in 2008, attracted international donations aimed at combating deforestation while supporting communities and industries reliant on the forest. Financial support waned after 2019 as deforestation intensified under Bolsonaro, but Lula has since reignited the fund, increasing it to around 4 billion reais (approximately US$710 million).
However, Silva firmly asserts that mere donations will not suffice to achieve meaningful progress. At COP29, she aims to address climate financing while also advocating for a new Basel Accord — an international initiative targeting capital requirements for banks — in conjunction with the upcoming G20 meeting in Brazil. She seeks innovative financial instruments that promote conservation and sustainability.
Silva emphasized that Trump’s return to political power cannot be allowed to derail international efforts toward climate action. The United States bears substantial responsibility for emissions reductions: “We’re working hard, and obviously the world is going to ensure that no country regresses on what has already been attained.”
“We have transformed nature into a source of profit, and now we must pivot to investing in the preservation, restoration, and safeguarding of natural ecosystems,” Silva asserted, emphasizing the necessity for future economic viability to align with conservation efforts. “Anything else simply won’t suffice.”
Nonetheless, lingering tensions exist between Silva and Lula regarding energy policies, as the president has reignited proposals for expanding offshore drilling, arguing that resulting revenues could fund the transition to greener energy sources. Silva has consistently advocated an outright abandonment of fossil fuel reliance. While the two have not publicly opposed each other on this front, the issue may reach a critical juncture at COP30 or sooner.
The risk of rising emissions spells potential disaster for the Amazon, even if deforestation is halted, a troubling prospect overshadowing Silva’s mission. However, she remains undeterred: “I understand the magnitude of the responsibility and the monumental efforts required — and I feel an unwavering commitment to this cause.”
**Interview with Marina Silva: The Path Forward for Climate Action**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us, Minister Silva. As the UN climate conference COP29 begins in Baku, what are your primary concerns as a negotiator for Brazil?
**Marina Silva:** Thank you for having me. My primary concern is the urgent need for all countries, particularly developed ones, to commit to more substantial climate action. With former President Trump’s re-election, we may face setbacks in emissions reduction commitments from the U.S. This could undermine our shared global objectives. However, I believe we can still find ways to collaborate and hold each other accountable, especially as we approach COP30 in Brazil.
**Interviewer:** COP30 is set to take place in the Amazon in 2025, a significant venue for such discussions. What unique responsibility does Brazil have as the host?
**Marina Silva:** Hosting COP30 in the Amazon gives us an extraordinary platform to emphasize the importance of rainforest conservation in the fight against climate change. Brazil not only holds significant biodiversity but also has a unique story of resilience in climate action despite being an oil-exporting nation. Our leadership needs to reflect a strong commitment to reducing CO2 emissions and halting deforestation, not just as a host country but as a global leader.
**Interviewer:** In light of the challenges you mentioned, can you share more about Brazil’s recent climate commitments?
**Marina Silva:** Last year, Brazil pledged to cut emissions by approximately 53% by 2030 from 2005 levels and promised to achieve zero deforestation by 2030. These ambitious targets underscore our recognition that a sustainable future is only achievable through immediate and drastic action. It’s about more than just numbers; it’s about ensuring that the communities that depend on the Amazon can thrive without destroying it.
**Interviewer:** As you prepare for both COP29 and COP30, what will be your strategy to engage with international delegates, especially regarding financing and fossil fuel reduction?
**Marina Silva:** Engagement will be crucial. I plan to insist on incorporating more financing mechanisms that can support developing countries in their climate efforts, not just in terms of cash but also in technology transfer and capacity-building. We must create a platform where all nations can transparently commit to reducing fossil fuels and investing in renewable energy solutions. COP30 will especially focus on dialogue that promotes shared responsibility.
**Interviewer:** Your journey is incredibly inspiring, from humble beginnings to leading Brazil’s climate efforts. What message do you want to convey about personal stories in the climate movement?
**Marina Silva:** I believe that climate action is deeply personal. Each story, including my own, reflects the broader narrative of resilience and the fight for justice against environmental degradation. I want to inspire others that it’s possible to rise from difficult circumstances and advocate powerfully for our planet. It’s a collective struggle, and we must ensure that every voice is heard, particularly those from indigenous communities and disadvantaged groups who are often at the frontline of climate impacts.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Minister Silva. Your insights shed light on the vital crossroads at which we stand regarding climate action. We look forward to seeing how your efforts unfold at COP29 and beyond.
**Marina Silva:** Thank you for having me. Together, we can foster a future where both people and the planet thrive.
