According to preliminary calculations, D. Tusk’s Civic Coalition, the “Third Way” and the Left parties will get 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament in the Seimas, while “Law and Justice” (PiS) and “Confederation” will get 212 seats.
“This gloomy period is over, the rule of “Law and Justice” is over,” said D. Tuskas.
“Democracy won,” he added.
The leader of “Law and Justice” Jaroslaw Kaczynski is still taking the position that the final result is not clear.
The organizers of the voter survey announce that the error of the results can reach 2 percent, but some commentators look at them with suspicion, recalling the recent example of Slovakia, where the final data differed greatly.
These elections may have a significant impact on Poland’s future relations with the European Union and neighboring Ukraine.
Political scientist: Poland’s relations with Brussels will change
Andrzej Pukszto, professor of political science at Vytautas Magnus University 15min says that if the results of the polls are confirmed and D. Tusk’s party takes over the power, the Polish government would improve relations with the partners of the European Union.
“There were many conflicts between Warsaw and Brussels. The main change would be the return of Poland to the active game of the European Union and active decision-making”, – 15min said A. Pukszto.
At the same time, he pointed out that the tension in Polish politics will probably remain – if these figures are confirmed, then the majority will be quite fragile and will not be able to reject the president’s veto.
Tomas Marcinkevičius, a political commentator from Punsk, also says that political instability may await Poland.
“Neither one nor the other political side will have full instruments, full power to carry out radical reforms. In other words, I think political instability awaits Poland”, – 15min he said.
Read the comment of political scientist Ramūnas Vilpišauskas about the impact of the Polish elections on Lithuania here: Which election result in Poland is more beneficial for Lithuania?
What the results show
A survey of voters conducted by “Ipsos” shows that the “Law and Justice” party (PiS) won 36.8 percent. votes, while the “Civil Coalition” received 31.6 percent. However, when considering possible coalitions, “Law and Justice” would lack the mandates to form a majority.
Three opposition parties – “Civil Coalition”, “Third Way” and “New Left” – ran with separate lists of candidates, but all promised to seek to oust PiS from power and restore good relations with the European Union.
Poland’s ruling PiS party has loyal supporters who value its defense of Catholic traditions and generous social benefits for pensioners and families with children.
However, the liberal opposition claims that those in power have worsened the state of democracy in the country and distanced it from the values of the European Union.
Divided Poland
During the election campaign, PiS promised to continue the controversial reforms of the judicial system.
The authorities claim that they are aimed at implementing corruption. The EU institutions consider them to be harmful to democracy. Billions of euros in EU funding have been suspended as a result of the dispute.
The opposition has promised to improve the rule of law and relations with allies if they succeed in gaining power.
During his last rally, Mr. Tusk said that the ruling party has “secret plans” to leave the EU.
“This is the most important day in the history of our democracy since 1989,” D. Tuskas said at the rally.
At that time, Mr. Kaczynski said on Friday during the last big party rally in Sandomeže: “We transferred part of our powers to the EU, but now that’s enough, nothing more.” We are in the EU and we want to stay in it, but in the EU of sovereign countries.”
J. Kaczynski repeatedly called his rival D. Tusk a puppet of Berlin and Brussels and promised to continue his party’s strict anti-migration policy.
PiS held a referendum on the same day on questions about migrants, including EU migration reform, the retirement age and the economy.
The opposition called on people to boycott the referendum. Surveys of voters show that the referendum did not take place due to insufficient turnout.
window.fbAsyncInit = function() {
FB.init({
appId: ‘117218911630016’,
version: ‘v2.10’,
status: true,
cookie: false,
xfbml: true
});
};
(function(d, s, id) {
var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];
if (d.getElementById(id)) {
return;
}
js = d.createElement(s);
js.id = id;
js.src = “https://connect.facebook.net/lt_LT/sdk.js”;
fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);
}(document, ‘script’, ‘facebook-jssdk’));
#Election #results #Polish #opposition #power #Tusk #declares #victory
**Interview with Political Analyst Dr. Andrzej Pukszto on Poland’s Recent Elections**
**Interviewer**: Today, we have the pleasure of speaking with Dr. Andrzej Pukszto, a professor of political science at Vytautas Magnus University. Welcome, Dr. Pukszto!
**Dr. Pukszto**: Thank you for having me.
**Interviewer**: The recent elections in Poland have resulted in a significant shift in the political landscape. Preliminary results indicate that Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, along with the “Third Way” and the Left parties, may hold 248 seats in the Seimas. What does this mean for Poland’s relationship with the European Union?
**Dr. Pukszto**: This is a momentous change for Poland. If Tusk’s coalition confirms these results, we can expect a marked improvement in relations with Brussels. The previous government, led by the Law and Justice party, created many conflicts with the EU, straying away from European norms and values. A new government could mean a return to active participation in EU decision-making processes, which would be welcomed.
**Interviewer**: You mentioned potential tensions within Polish domestic politics despite this shift. Could you elaborate on that?
**Dr. Pukszto**: Certainly. While the results seem favorable for opposition parties, they don’t grant a clear majority, which creates a fragile situation. The coalition might face challenges in pushing through reforms or overriding the presidential veto, resulting in possible political instability. This could hinder decisive action on both domestic and European fronts.
**Interviewer**: Tomas Marcinkevičius, another political commentator, expressed similar concerns about political instability. What might this mean for future governance in Poland?
**Dr. Pukszto**: The lack of a strong majority means that neither side can enact drastic reforms without compromise. Negotiation and coalition-building will likely become essential, which can slow the political process. We may witness a period of uncertainty as these parties navigate their agendas while trying to maintain unity.
**Interviewer**: The Law and Justice party has been known for its conservative stance and has strong support from various demographics. How might these support bases react to the possible change in government?
**Dr. Pukszto**: The PiS has a loyal following, particularly among those valuing traditional values and social benefits. However, the allegations against the party regarding democratic backsliding may create fractures within their support as disillusioned voters look for accountability. The shift could invoke backlash, particularly from those who feel threatened by a liberal agenda, which could further polarize the political climate.
**Interviewer**: Lastly, how would you evaluate the significance of these elections on Poland’s role in Eastern European geopolitics, particularly concerning Ukraine?
**Dr. Pukszto**: A new government could substantially alter Poland’s approach to Ukraine and regional security. Strengthening ties with the EU might facilitate more robust support for Ukraine amid ongoing tensions with Russia. An engaged and cooperative Polish government can play an essential role in EU efforts regarding sanctions, security collaboration, and humanitarian aid.
**Interviewer**: Thank you, Dr. Pukszto, for sharing your insights on this critical topic. We appreciate your time.
**Dr. Pukszto**: Thank you for having me. It will be fascinating to see how the political situation develops in Poland in the coming weeks and months.
