2024-11-08 05:48:00
(Ottawa) Donald Trump’s victory in key states like Wisconsin has just darkened the future of supply management in Canada. Already, the National Milk Producers Federation is preparing a new confrontation with a view to revising the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), scheduled for 2026. And in Canada, senators are trying to empty the draft of its substance. Bill C-282 which aims to protect this system.
Published at 12:48 a.m.
Updated at 5:00 a.m.
“I think this is going to make for a very interesting review of CUSMA,” says Shawna Morris, executive vice president of trade policy and global affairs for the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF), with a smile in her voice. ). The association represents two-thirds of the 28,000 commercial dairy producers in the United States.
Since the deal was made during Mr. Trump’s first term, she expects the same players to be part of his new administration. “I think this will make things even more difficult to resolve the sources of irritation,” she predicts.
PHOTO JABIN BOTSFORD, ARCHIVES THE WASHINGTON POST
Donald Trump on election night
And there are irritants for American milk producers. The same day as the presidential election, the NMPF published a press release to remind us that Canada had not kept its word. In a document recently submitted to Global Affairs Canada, the NMPF complains that “CUSMA fails to provide the dairy market access that the United States negotiated and expects.” She believes that trade barriers still exist in the form of unfair administrative procedures, a high number of quotas reserved for processors and non-existent access for retailers.
“We are not at all trying to dismantle supply management,” she insisted. We simply focus on the specific aspects of Canadian dairy policies that create trade problems. »
Regardless of the position of the NMPF, supply management will serve as a bargaining chip for the Americans, warns the former Minister of Industry and former president of the Business Council of Canada, John Manley, who recently compared the Canadian farm lobby to the American pro-gun lobby.
We know this is politically sensitive in the United States because of Wisconsin’s importance as a swing state in every presidential election.
John Manley, former Minister of Industry and former President of the Business Council of Canada
Wisconsin, won by Trump on Tuesday, is the second largest milk producer after California. Four other states where the dairy industry is a significant part of the economy voted for the Republican candidate, including Pennsylvania, another swing state.
“We know we are in their sights,” added Mr. Manley. We won’t be able to escape it. »
It builds on remarks made by Robert Lighthizer, the former US trade representative under the first Trump administration, to the Business Council of Canada in May. Rumors are circulating that the latter could still play an important role.
The Senate against the protection of supply management
Faced with this uncertainty, senators believe that Canada should not protect supply management during the review of CUSMA. A majority of them on the Senate Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Trade voted Wednesday to amend the Bloc Québécois’ Bill C-282, which would prohibit the Minister of International Trade from offering new concessions during negotiations trade agreements.
“I wanted to eliminate the risk that this legislation would have presented in the context of the new CUSMA negotiations,” argued progressive Senator Peter Harder, who presented this amendment, in an interview. This former deputy minister who has already been involved in trade negotiations maintains that Canada would not benefit from having its hands tied.
PHOTO SPENCER COLBY, THE CANADIAN PRESS
The leader of the Bloc Québécois, Yves-François Blanchet
This is “a stab in the back of agricultural producers in Quebec and Canada,” thundered Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet on Thursday.
The amendment renders the bill meaningless since it would not apply to the renegotiation of current treaties and those currently under negotiation.
This is a “violent” amendment, according to Mr. Blanchet, “which literally kills supply management” by telling “the people with whom Canada will be negotiating, whether in the United States, Mexico, Europe, the Pacific Rim or even Latin America, where supply management is on sale, help yourself! »
Senator Clément Gignac, of the Canadian Senators Group, believes on the contrary that “it is a good thing that the Senate has a careful second look” with the arrival of a new tenant at the White House, who has promised to impose customs tariffs of 10%. As the son of a farmer, he is in favor of supply management, but he believes that Bill C-282 risks provoking the United States, already unhappy with Canadian military spending.
“Do we really want to attract the attention of Americans? “, he asked in an interview. Especially since the United States Ambassador to Canada, David Cohen, has just “sent a signal” by telling Radio-Canada that Canada and the United States had “no need to throw bombs at each other “.
If the amended version of Bill C-282 is adopted by the Senate, it will be returned to the House of Commons. The government, which is committed to protecting supply management, will then have to decide whether to accept or reject this amendment. C-282 had obtained support from all parties in the Commons. Only 2 Liberal MPs and 49 Conservative MPs voted against, 262 for.
Read the article “Agricultural Lobby for Supply Management: “It’s Canada’s NRA””
What is supply management?
This system was established in the 1970s in response to unstable prices for poultry, eggs and milk. It consists of “coordinating production and demand” using a system of production quotas “while controlling imports” with a tariff quota. This means that a minimum volume of foreign products is allowed on the market. A “significant customs tariff” is imposed beyond this minimum.
Source: Library of Parliament
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united states-mexico-canada agreement
Ph “ style=””>Senator Gignac’s concerns highlight the delicate balancing act that Canada must navigate in its trade relations, particularly with the United States. The potential for increased tariffs under the new U.S. administration could pose a significant threat to Canadian industries, especially those reliant on supply management practices.
Additionally, the ongoing debates surrounding Bill C-282 further underscore the tensions within Canada’s agricultural sectors and the government’s approach to trade negotiations. As different factions within the Senate express varying levels of support and opposition to the protections afforded by supply management, the implications of these deliberations could have far-reaching consequences for Canadian farmers.
The complexities of trade negotiations also reveal the broader context in which they occur, including geopolitical relationships and economic pressures. As Canada weighs its options, the potential fallout of any trade concessions could reshape the agricultural landscape for years to come.
As discussions continue, all eyes will be on the government’s next steps and how they choose to navigate these challenging negotiations while balancing national interests and agricultural prosperity.
