According to preliminary calculations, D. Tusk’s Civic Coalition, the “Third Way” and the Left parties will get 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament in the Seimas, while “Law and Justice” (PiS) and “Confederation” will get 212 seats.
“This gloomy period is over, the rule of “Law and Justice” is over,” said D. Tuskas.
“Democracy won,” he added.
The leader of “Law and Justice” Jaroslaw Kaczynski is still taking the position that the final result is not clear.
The organizers of the voter survey announce that the error of the results can reach 2 percent, but some commentators look at them with suspicion, recalling the recent example of Slovakia, where the final data differed greatly.
These elections may have a significant impact on Poland’s future relations with the European Union and neighboring Ukraine.
Political scientist: Poland’s relations with Brussels will change
Andrzej Pukszto, professor of political science at Vytautas Magnus University 15min says that if the results of the polls are confirmed and D. Tusk’s party takes over the power, the Polish government would improve relations with the partners of the European Union.
“There were many conflicts between Warsaw and Brussels. The main change would be the return of Poland to the active game of the European Union and active decision-making”, – 15min said A. Pukszto.
At the same time, he pointed out that the tension in Polish politics will probably remain – if these figures are confirmed, then the majority will be quite fragile and will not be able to reject the president’s veto.
Tomas Marcinkevičius, a political commentator from Punsk, also says that political instability may await Poland.
“Neither one nor the other political side will have full instruments, full power to carry out radical reforms. In other words, I think political instability awaits Poland”, – 15min he said.
Read the comment of political scientist Ramūnas Vilpišauskas about the impact of the Polish elections on Lithuania here: Which election result in Poland is more beneficial for Lithuania?
What the results show
A survey of voters conducted by “Ipsos” shows that the “Law and Justice” party (PiS) won 36.8 percent. votes, while the “Civil Coalition” received 31.6 percent. However, when considering possible coalitions, “Law and Justice” would lack the mandates to form a majority.
Three opposition parties – “Civil Coalition”, “Third Way” and “New Left” – ran with separate lists of candidates, but all promised to seek to oust PiS from power and restore good relations with the European Union.
Poland’s ruling PiS party has loyal supporters who value its defense of Catholic traditions and generous social benefits for pensioners and families with children.
However, the liberal opposition claims that those in power have worsened the state of democracy in the country and distanced it from the values of the European Union.
Divided Poland
During the election campaign, PiS promised to continue the controversial reforms of the judicial system.
The authorities claim that they are aimed at implementing corruption. The EU institutions consider them to be harmful to democracy. Billions of euros in EU funding have been suspended as a result of the dispute.
The opposition has promised to improve the rule of law and relations with allies if they succeed in gaining power.
During his last rally, Mr. Tusk said that the ruling party has “secret plans” to leave the EU.
“This is the most important day in the history of our democracy since 1989,” D. Tuskas said at the rally.
At that time, Mr. Kaczynski said on Friday during the last big party rally in Sandomeže: “We transferred part of our powers to the EU, but now that’s enough, nothing more.” We are in the EU and we want to stay in it, but in the EU of sovereign countries.”
J. Kaczynski repeatedly called his rival D. Tusk a puppet of Berlin and Brussels and promised to continue his party’s strict anti-migration policy.
PiS held a referendum on the same day on questions about migrants, including EU migration reform, the retirement age and the economy.
The opposition called on people to boycott the referendum. Surveys of voters show that the referendum did not take place due to insufficient turnout.
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What type of government is Poland under
**Interview with Political Scientist Andrzej Pukszto on the Implications of Poland’s Recent Elections**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Professor Pukszto. Poland’s recent elections have dramatically shifted the political landscape. How significant is the victory of Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition and its partners?
**Andrzej Pukszto:** Thank you for having me. This victory is indeed significant. It marks the end of the Law and Justice party’s (PiS) rule and signals a shift in Poland’s political alignment towards greater cooperation with the European Union. Tusk and the opposition have a clear mandate to restore democratic norms and improve diplomatic relations.
**Editor:** Tusk stated, “This gloomy period is over, the rule of ‘Law and Justice’ is over.” What do you think he meant by that?
**Andrzej Pukszto:** Tusk’s comments highlight the frustrations many citizens felt under PiS’s governance. His victory represents a desire for change, a move away from the confrontational stance that characterized PiS’s time in power, particularly with Brussels. Many Poles are eager to return to a more integrationist approach within the EU.
**Editor:** There are concerns about political instability given the fragile majority. What does that mean for Poland’s governance moving forward?
**Andrzej Pukszto:** Political instability is a likely outcome. While Tusk’s coalition holds a numerical advantage, it lacks a strong majority, making it vulnerable to legislative challenges. The opposition will need to navigate relationships not only within the coalition but also with President Duda, who may veto key reforms. This could lead to a gridlocked government.
**Editor:** How do you foresee this election impacting Poland’s relations with neighboring countries, particularly Ukraine?
**Andrzej Pukszto:** A new government under Tusk should enhance Poland’s role as a supportive ally to Ukraine, especially in light of ongoing conflicts. Poland can take a more active, collaborative stance within the EU to address challenges related to security and humanitarian support for Ukraine.
**Editor:** In your opinion, what are the first priorities for Tusk’s new government?
**Andrzej Pukszto:** The immediate priorities should include restoring democratic institutions, addressing the rule of law, and re-establishing constructive dialogue with the European Union. Additionally, they’ll likely focus on economic recovery post-pandemic and addressing social inequalities that have been exacerbated during the last few years.
**Editor:** Thank you, Professor Pukszto, for sharing your insights on this pivotal moment for Poland.
**Andrzej Pukszto:** Thank you for having me; it’s a crucial time for Polish politics, and I look forward to seeing how these developments unfold.
