Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Competing against a formidable opponent on a condensed schedule is one of the most formidable challenges an NFL team encounters.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers find themselves in this exact predicament this week as they gear up for a significant clash.
I will explain my reasoning for believing that Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers face a daunting task ahead, as well as why I am placing my bet on the Denver Broncos to cover against the Chiefs in Kansas City.
Let’s delve into the details.
(All times ET)
SUNDAY, NOV. 10
49ers @ Buccaneers (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
This matchup presents a precarious situation for the Buccaneers.
Fresh off a grueling overtime battle against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Buccaneers’ defense was put through the ringer, tasked with defending against 83 offensive plays and conceding significant yardage during the Chiefs’ last three critical drives.
With depleted energy from that contest, the Bucs now face the daunting challenge of hosting the San Francisco 49ers, who are resting after a bye week.
Transitioning from defending against one powerful rushing offense to another in just six days amplifies the challenge, especially considering that after Monday night’s game, Tampa Bay ranks a dismal 28th in defensive yards allowed per rush.
Their defensive struggles culminate in allowing an alarming average of 27 points per game, placing them at the bottom tier in the NFL. The Buccaneers will need to find a way to tighten their defense quickly.
Given their recent struggles, I anticipate the 49ers will seize the opportunity to set the tone for the remainder of their season during Sunday’s game. I am confident in the 49ers to cover the spread in the first half.
PICK: 49ers -2.5 (at time of pick) first half
Ravens or Steelers: Who takes the AFC North crown?
Steelers @ Commanders (1 p.m., CBS)
The Commanders have exploded onto the scene with a 7-2 record and have successfully covered the spread in eight of their nine matchups so far this season.
Their offensive unit, under the guidance of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, has flourished. It exhibits a well-balanced attack, ranking impressively as the second-best in passing while also holding the eighth position in rushing.
While the Steelers boast a formidable defense, their scheduling this season has seen them face a mix of quarterbacks, including those like Daniel Jones and Aaron Rodgers. The differences in offensive prowess among their opponents raise questions about how they will fare against a fully functional team like the Commanders.
The Commanders, with their dynamic offense, may very well present the stiffest challenge the Steelers have faced all season. I foresee Daniels using both his arm and legs effectively to produce points against Pittsburgh’s defense.
While the Steelers have improved their offensive capabilities with quarterback Russell Wilson, they remain somewhat limited in their strategies, primarily focusing on the run game, play action pass, and deep throws. This predictable approach could play into the hands of the Commanders’ defense.
The addition of star defensive back Marshon Lattimore strengthens the secondary and enables them to better defend against wide receiver George Pickens, a key target for the Steelers. If Pickens is neutralized, the Steelers will have fewer options for deep passes. I firmly believe the Commanders will win and successfully cover the spread.
PICK: Commanders (-3) to win by more than 3 points
Can the Chiefs go undefeated?
Broncos @ Chiefs (1 p.m., CBS)
Historically, the Chiefs struggle with covering larger point spreads, and I believe they are in a tough spot similar to their opponents from Monday night.
While the Chiefs are likely to emerge victorious in their matchup, I anticipate they won’t be able to cover the spread.
Facing a short week means their quarterback, who is still nursing injuries, may not be at full strength. Though I am skeptical of ‘look-ahead’ games in the NFL, this Sunday night presents a perfect opportunity for such a mindset—looking beyond the Broncos to their upcoming game against Buffalo.
After facing an embarrassing loss to the Ravens, wagering on a competitive team returning from a setback is typically a wise bet. Denver is currently ranked 16th in team DVOA and 7th in defensive metrics, indicating they are capable of stifling the Chiefs’ offensive efforts.
Travis Kelce’s activity level after an exhaustive game leaves questions about his ability to impact this upcoming matchup. I find it challenging to be optimistic about the Chiefs’ performance in this game.
I favor the Broncos to cover the 8-point spread against the Chiefs.
PICK: Broncos (+8 at time of pick) to lose by fewer than 8 points, or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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Pable of putting up a fight. Given these factors, I expect the Chiefs to struggle to cover the spread, despite their strong home-field advantage.
PICK: Broncos +7.5
AAF and the NFL: What’s the impact?
Packers @ Vikings (1 p.m., FOX)
This matchup sees the Packers facing a tough division rival in the Vikings. Both teams have had their ups and downs this season, but the Vikings have shown a more consistent performance in recent weeks, making them a tough opponent at home.
While the Packers’ offense has struggled to find its rhythm, it’s crucial for them to rediscover their passing game against a Vikings secondary that has its vulnerabilities. If they can exploit those weaknesses, they stand a chance to make it competitive.
The Vikings, led by their star quarterback, possess the firepower to pour on the points, and they’ll look to do just that. Historically, home-field advantage in this matchup can’t be understated, and it may tip the scales in favor of Minnesota.
PICK: Vikings -4 to win by more than 4 points
Jaguars @ Texans (1 p.m., CBS)
Both teams are having solid seasons, but this AFC South clash could determine playoff positions. The Jaguars have been formidable, showcasing a balanced attack on both sides of the ball.
The Texans, buoyed by a solid season from their rookie quarterback, have developed some momentum, but they’ll need to step up defensively to stop the Jaguars’ offensive prowess.
I believe the Jaguars will take control of this game and capitalize on their experience, especially in crucial moments.
PICK: Jaguars -3 to win by more than 3 points
SUNDAY, NOV. 10, SUMMARY OF PICKS
- 49ers -2.5 (first half)
- Commanders -3
- Broncos +7.5
- Vikings -4
- Jaguars -3
With a full slate of games on Sunday, these matchups promise to be exciting and pivotal as teams jockey for playoff positioning. Make sure to tune in and catch all the action!
