SINGAPORE – As United States President-elect Donald Trump prepares to embark on his second term, he has unleashed threats of imposing sweeping tariffs on imports. However, analysts warn that a more pressing concern for Southeast Asian nations may be the influx of inexpensive Chinese products, which have been excluded from the American market.
While consumers in the region could benefit from accessing these low-cost items, the implications for local economies are troubling; Southeast Asian exports may struggle to compete, potentially stunting economic growth and jeopardizing job security.
During his recent campaign, Trump vowed to impose tariffs as high as 60 percent on imports from China and a minimum of 10 percent on goods from other nations, raising alarms about trade relations and regional economic stability.
Additionally, he has issued threats to withdraw the United States from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, an initiative designed to bolster economic collaboration in the region, while signaling uncertainties regarding the U.S.’s military commitments to Asia.
If Trump acts on his tariff threats, Southeast Asia could see a significant surge in Chinese imports, which are priced much lower than local products due to China’s state subsidies and robust manufacturing capabilities.
Economists stress that regional countries aspiring for economic development must adopt strategic measures to effectively compete against the onslaught of low-cost Chinese goods. Ms. Trinh Nguyen, a senior economist at Natixis consultancy in Hong Kong, articulated the challenge succinctly, saying, “The real danger here is for these countries – if they have an ambition to industrialise – they are going to face a wall of Chinese goods that have very limited places to go.”
She asserts that China’s production will not wane; the country is steadfast in its industrial policies, believing that true economic development relies on manufacturing real goods rather than financial speculation. This commitment will lead to ongoing subsidies for production, according to Nguyen.
Such circumstances could stir increased trade tensions across the region. Ms. Priyanka Kishore, founder and principal economist of Asia Decoded consultancy, commented that Trump’s impending policies “do not bode well for South-east Asia overall”.
With investigations into Chinese dumping occurring in various ASEAN economies, Kishore notes that significant actions have yet to be implemented. As the flow of Chinese exports to ASEAN countries escalates amidst U.S. tariff impositions, regional frictions are likely to intensify. Yet, she also indicates that a severe trade war is improbable, as ASEAN leaders understand the necessity of regional integration in an increasingly fragmented global landscape.
As Trump 2.0 may embrace a more confrontational approach towards China, the expected escalation in tariffs and aggressive de-risking rhetoric could lead to a downturn in external demand and increased economic uncertainty among ASEAN economies.
Furthermore, Trump’s intermittent threats to curtail U.S. military assistance in the region amplify concerns, particularly given the deteriorating geopolitical climate in Asia, marked by rising tensions in the South China Sea.
Experts argue that Southeast Asian countries are likely to experience adverse effects from U.S. protectionist policies. Nations such as Vietnam and Thailand, which currently maintain significant trade surpluses with the U.S., may bear the brunt of these shifts.
Among ASEAN’s major economies, Vietnam is seen as particularly vulnerable to heightened tariffs under a second Trump administration, given its status as a primary exporter to the U.S. As of September, Vietnam recorded a substantial US$90 billion (S$119 billion) trade surplus with Washington, ranking fourth overall after China, the European Union, and Mexico. The industrial hub of Southeast Asia has profited from the elevated tariffs on Chinese goods imposed during Trump’s first term.
“The tariff imposition risks are most pronounced for Vietnam, which has become the third-largest contributor to the U.S. trade deficit. Its rising imports from China are also adding to the U.S.’s anxieties, raising concerns that Vietnam could be a backdoor for Chinese goods into U.S. markets under the heavy tariff regime,” Ms. Kishore elaborated.
In 2018, when Trump initiated a trade war with Beijing during his first term, it prompted numerous Chinese companies to relocate to Southeast Asia, causing U.S. concerns regarding the rerouting of trade from China to American markets through regional hubs.
**Interview with Ms. Trinh Nguyen, Senior Economist at Natixis Consultancy, on the Impacts of a Potential Trump Presidency on Southeast Asia**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Ms. Nguyen. As the political climate shifts with Donald Trump possibly entering his second term, how do you see Southeast Asian economies reacting to his proposed trade policies?
**Trinh Nguyen:** Thank you for having me. Southeast Asian nations are certainly on alert as we see potential changes in U.S. trade policy. Trump’s threats to impose tariffs—up to 60% on imports from China—might force these countries to grapple with a surge of cheaper Chinese goods that would flood their markets. On one hand, consumers might benefit from lower prices, but the local industries could suffer significantly.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned that Chinese products might flood the markets. What challenges do you think this poses for local manufacturers in Southeast Asia?
**Trinh Nguyen:** The primary challenge is competition. Southeast Asian countries that aim to industrialize and grow their manufacturing sectors will find it increasingly difficult to compete with the lower-priced Chinese goods, which are often heavily subsidized. If these nations want to thrive, they need to adopt innovative strategies to protect and promote their local productions.
**Interviewer:** Economic growth and job security are significant concerns. Do you believe there are long-term risks if these trends continue?
**Trinh Nguyen:** Absolutely. If Southeast Asia relies too heavily on imports of cheap Chinese goods, we could see stunted economic growth and job security issues in local manufacturing sectors. The risk is that one day these economies may find themselves unable to produce competitively, which could undermine their ambitions for sustainable development.
**Interviewer:** Amid these concerns, what do you think about the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity? How crucial is U.S. involvement for Southeast Asia’s future?
**Trinh Nguyen:** The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is vital for strengthening economic cooperation among nations in the region. If Trump were to withdraw from this initiative, it could leave a void in U.S. commitment to regional stability and growth, pushing Southeast Asian countries deeper into reliance on China. ASEAN leaders recognize the importance of integration in a fragmented global economy, but without U.S. support, achieving that could become much harder.
**Interviewer:** Lastly, we’ve seen some analysts suggesting that a severe trade war is improbable. What’s your take on this?
**Trinh Nguyen:** While trade tensions may rise, a complete trade war is unlikely because Southeast Asia understands the importance of maintaining strong regional ties and fostering integration. The countries would prefer to navigate these complexities rather than engage in open conflict with major economic partners like the U.S. and China. They have much to gain from collaborative strategies that can fortify their positions in a changing global landscape.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Ms. Nguyen, for sharing your insights on this important issue.
**Trinh Nguyen:** My pleasure. Thank you for having me.
