When the Minnesota Wild made the decision to acquire Zach Bogosian early last season, it became apparent that they may have cast a seasoned player into a role that didn’t quite fit his capabilities. Imagine a director on the hunt for the perfect actor to portray the quintessential “Big Shutdown Defenseman,” and in walks Bogosian with his commanding presence—automatically, you’d see him as the embodiment of that character.
Bogosian’s impressive 6-foot-3 stature contributes significantly to his intimidating look, but let’s not overlook that iconic beard. The Bogo Beard has become a visual emblem synonymous with the phrase “Veteran Hockey Guy,” showcasing his years of experience in the league.
The irony lies in the fact that the label of “Big Shutdown Defenseman” may not accurately capture Bogosian’s true playing style. When he’s at the height of his performance, Bogosian transforms into a smooth-skating defenseman capable of making notable contributions in the offensive zone. However, his defensive skills have often raised eyebrows. In fact, even cherry-picking the most favorable three-year span of his career, statistics reveal that his defensive game remained firmly entrenched in the bottom third of the NHL.
Given this context, one must wonder: how would Bogosian fit into the Minnesota Wild’s strategy that aimed to utilize him as their designated Big Shutdown Defenseman?
Surprisingly well, it seems. The results have been remarkable. According to Evolving-Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement metric, Bogosian’s defensive performance ranked as the 14th-best among all NHL defensemen last season. He evolved from being merely a replacement-level player to one valued at 3.5 Standings Points Above Replacement—equivalent to the contributions of Jonas Brodin and even outpacing Brock Faber, who clocked in at 3.4 SPAR.
Recognizing this turnaround, the Wild extended Bogosian’s contract for two years at an average annual value of $1.25 million, positioning themselves for what could very well be an incredible bargain if he maintains his elevated level of play.
Yet, given Bogosian’s historic inconsistency, this raises a significant question: what happens if the bubble eventually bursts, and he reverts to the version of himself that stood out as a rare weak link on a previously Stanley Cup-winning Tampa Bay Lightning team?
Unfortunately, indications might emerge sooner than later in the 2024-25 season. Tuesday night’s game served as a disappointing reminder of Bogosian’s previous struggles. While he made an offensive contribution by scoring the opening goal, his defensive play left much to be desired.
On Warren Foegele’s goal that tied the game at 1-1, Bogosian failed to disrupt the zone entry. He subsequently lost track of Foegele, initiating his reaction only after Foegele capitalized on a rebound in an open net.
This defensive oversight contributed to a shaky showing for Bogosian, and it appears to be a concerning trend. Evolving-Hockey noted that he allowed 1.31 expected goals against at 5-on-5 on Tuesday alone, marking the fourth instance in just 12 games where he conceded over 1.00 xG in a single outing. By comparison, he only had five such occurrences across 61 games last year with the Wild.
These recurring defensive blunders are significant contributors to Bogosian’s current reputation as one of the league’s least effective defensemen. Of the 187 defensemen that have logged over 100 5-on-5 minutes, Bogosian’s 3.18 expected goals against per hour places him a troubling 162nd in the NHL. While it may be tempting to dismiss these numbers by saying “It’s still early in the season,” it’s important to recognize that we are already witnessing data that encompasses about 20% of Bogosian’s performance in Minnesota last season.
The troubling stats don’t appear to stem from a lack of decent line partners either. In 93 minutes spent on the second pairing next to the defensively sound Brodin, Bogosian still allowed 3.09 xG per hour. In the 53 minutes he’s played alongside Jon Merrill, that duo has conceded expected goals at an even higher rate of 3.31 xG per hour. Whenever Bogosian steps onto the ice, scoring chances for opponents seem to multiply.
This trend is particularly disconcerting given that Bogosian has struggled even in the context of an otherwise highly disciplined and structured Minnesota Wild team. Collectively, Minnesota concedes an impressive average of only 1.93 expected goals per hour. However, that figure escalates to 1.39 expected goals per hour when Bogosian is not on the ice. Remarkably, the Wild have surrendered more expected goals during the 30.6% of the 5-on-5 situations while Bogosian has been present (9.69 xGA) than during the nearly 70% of time when he has taken a seat on the bench.
While the situation hasn’t fully unraveled for the Wild—Bolstered by a narrow 8-to-7 advantage in actual goals with Bogosian on the ice—there’s a palpable sense that unless he promptly rediscovers the form he showcased last season, the day will swiftly arrive when he risks cementing his status as a liability for the Minnesota franchise.
All data via Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise noted.
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**Interview with Hockey Analyst Emily Richards on Zach Bogosian’s Re-signing with the Minnesota Wild**
**Interviewer:** Welcome, Emily! Thanks for joining us today.
**Emily Richards:** Thanks for having me!
**Interviewer:** So, the Minnesota Wild have re-signed Zach Bogosian to a two-year, $2.5 million deal. What are your initial thoughts on this move?
**Emily Richards:** I think it’s a fascinating decision. Bogosian has had a tumultuous career, but his performance last season in Minnesota was quite impressive. His ability to shift from a perceived liability to one of the top defensive performers is notable.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned that he evolved from a replacement-level player to ranking 14th among NHL defensemen last season. What do you think contributed to this turnaround?
**Emily Richards:** It seems his fit within the Wild’s system allowed him to thrive. They utilized him in a way that tapped into his strengths, particularly his smooth skating and offensive contributions, while minimizing exposure in scenarios where he struggled defensively.
**Interviewer:** Given his history of inconsistency, though, is it reasonable for fans to worry about a potential regression?
**Emily Richards:** Absolutely. That’s one of the key concerns here. While his recent performance has been commendable, the underlying metrics from this current season show that he may still be plagued by similar defensive issues that have affected him in the past.
**Interviewer:** For instance, in a recent game, he allowed significant expected goals against. Can you elaborate on that?
**Emily Richards:** Yes, in that game, he allowed 1.31 expected goals against at 5-on-5, which is concerning. It highlights the fact that despite his offensive contributions, his defensive lapses can hinder overall team performance. He’s been on the ice for too many scoring chances against, indicating a troubling trend.
**Interviewer:** How should the Wild approach managing Bogosian’s role moving forward, especially after seeing some of these defensive struggles?
**Emily Richards:** They’ll need to be strategic. Balancing his offensive capabilities with defensive responsibilities will be critical. It’s about finding the right pairings and situations where he can excel without being overly exposed.
**Interviewer:** So, if Bogosian can maintain this elevated level of play, this deal could indeed turn into a bargain for the Wild?
**Emily Richards:** Exactly. If he performs well, it not only strengthens the defensive core but also adds value without breaking the bank. That said, they’ll need contingency plans if the inconsistencies resurface.
**Interviewer:** Thanks for your insights, Emily! It’ll be interesting to see how Bogosian’s season unfolds.
**Emily Richards:** Indeed! Looking forward to discussing it further as the season progresses.
