The presidential elections on November 5 in the United States will also be felt in Cuba, where the political contest is closely followed because what the polls say could have repercussions on Washington’s sanctions regime against the island, say experts consulted by EFE.
The ruling party assures, at least publicly, that Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump They are, in essence, the same. They point to the current Democratic administration (in which Harris is vice president) for not reversing the bulk of the sanctions applied by the previous one, headed by Trump.
The current president, Joe Biden, relaxed some restrictions on remittances and flights, in addition to supporting the emerging private sector in Cuba with some measures.
However, it did not remove the island from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism that Trump put it on, something that the White House could decide alone and that would have important financial repercussions for Havana.
“They can say that (that they are equal) but they don’t believe it. They align themselves with an anti-imperialist discourse in which the differences between one party and another are not of major relevance,” censures the professor of International Relations and expert on the island Arturo López-Levy in an interview with EFE.
Cuba, more sanctions with Trump
Experts agree that a Trump victory could be more damaging for Cuba than a Harris victory.
Lillian Guerra, professor in the Department of History at the University of Florida, believes that, if she wins, Harris would continue supporting Cuban businesspeople in addition to generating investment opportunities. Although he considers that he would implement these changes “not silently, but cautiously.”
For American political scientist William LeoGrande, a second term for Trump would mean the return of the “maximum pressure” policy and the handing over of “control of policy over Cuba to the conservative Cuban community in South Florida.”
That last point, adds López-Levy, is what makes the difference: the power of legislators of island descent in the Republican Party and their staunch defense of sanctions.
“That does not exist in the Democratic Party,” says López-Levy, who recalls that the only prosanctional legislator in that party was Bob Menéndez, who resigned in August after being found guilty of a bribery crime.
But for the principal researcher for Latin America at Chatham House, Christopher Sabatini, there is an underlying problem: “We must understand that (for Washington) the issue of Cuba is not a priority.”
Sabatini argues that there are currently other issues in international politics far above the island: from the Russian invasion of Ukraine to the Middle East and Venezuela, including drug trafficking.
LeoGrande partially agrees with Sabatini’s point, although he adds an extra consideration, that in his opinion Cuba at this time “desperately needs humanitarian aid.”
Cuban migration
Experts add another factor, which is, along with the economy, the most important issue for voters in the United States: migration.
“There is a migration crisis that the United States is going through and a large number of Cubans leaving the island are contributing to that crisis,” says LeoGrande.
In the last fiscal year alone – which ended in September – more than 200,000 Cubans crossed the US southern border with Mexico, according to official data.
Trump has promised that, if he wins the presidency, he will tear down the humanitarian parole program (implemented by the current administration to benefit Cubans, Nicaraguans, Haitians and Venezuelans) as well as the CBP One application to request asylum.
In this regard, Guerra highlights the support that the Republican has among the Cuban community in South Florida despite the fact that, if he keeps his promises, he could stop the arrival of Cubans in their tracks.
“I have been impressed with the degree of passion of many recently arrived Cubans who argue that there is no more space in Miami and that the people who remain on the island are going to have to stay there,” she laments.
López-Levy also points out what a border closure could mean for Cuba and, by extension, for the island’s government because, he argues, migration has been an “escape valve” for Havana against discontent.
Havana / EFE
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**Interview with Arturo López-Levy: Expert on U.S.-Cuba Relations**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Professor López-Levy. Recently, the U.N. General Assembly called on the U.S. to end its sanctions against Cuba, and with the upcoming presidential elections on November 5, how do you see the political landscape affecting these sanctions?
**Arturo López-Levy:** Thank you for having me. The situation is quite complex. The elections are being monitored closely in Cuba because the outcome could significantly influence U.S. policy towards the island. Both candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, represent different approaches, but as I mentioned earlier, many in Cuba believe they are essentially the same when it comes to tough stances on sanctions.
**Editor:** Can you elaborate on that perception? How do the current policies under Biden compare to what might happen under a second Trump administration?
**Arturo López-Levy:** Certainly. The Biden administration has made some steps to ease restrictions, such as on remittances and flights, and has shown some support for private enterprise in Cuba. However, the key policies, particularly the designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, remain unchanged. If Trump returns to power, I predict a return to what we call the “maximum pressure” approach, which would increase sanctions and empower conservative voices in South Florida, who are staunch supporters of those measures.
**Editor:** What impact do you think a possible continuation of Harris’s policies would have on Cuba?
**Arturo López-Levy:** If Kamala Harris were to win, I believe she would likely continue providing limited support to Cuban entrepreneurs and create avenues for investment. However, her approach would be more cautious compared to Trump, who would likely bring back more aggressive measures. The difference, as I mentioned, is in the power dynamics within the Republican Party, where you have a very influential pro-sanctions Cuban-American community.
**Editor:** It’s clear that U.S. policy is impacted by domestic political pressures. Beyond the elections, what do you think are the broader implications for U.S.-Cuba relations if the focus on Cuba remains low due to other international issues?
**Arturo López-Levy:** That’s a critical point. Christopher Sabatini rightly notes that Cuba is not a priority for the U.S. right now, overshadowed by crises in Ukraine, the Middle East, and other pressing matters. This means that regardless of who wins the presidency, the engagement with Cuba might not change significantly unless there is a substantial shift in public sentiment or political will.
**Editor:** Thank you, Professor López-Levy, for your insights. The upcoming elections indeed have far-reaching implications not only for U.S. domestic policy but also for our relations with Cuba.
**Arturo López-Levy:** Thank you for the opportunity to discuss this important topic.
