The Cuban Meteorological Institute has issued an updated bulletin on Hurricane Rafael, which in recent hours has emerged into the Gulf of Mexico after strongly impacting the western region of the country.
This powerful hurricane continues to generate intense winds, torrential rains and storm surges in several provinces in western Cuba.
Information updated at 7:00 pm:
Position: 23.2 °N – 83.2 °W
Location: 30 km north of Bahía Honda, Artemisa and 90 km west-northwest of Havana.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 170 km/h
Minimum Central Pressure: 966 hPa
Motion: Noroeste and 20 km/h
Analysis and forecast
Rafael’s center of circulation emerged into the Gulf of Mexico around 6:20 pm, crossing the northern coast of Artemisa between Bahia Honda and Cabañas Bay. During its passage through western Cuba, the hurricane has weakened slightly, now being a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Rafael maintains hurricane force winds up to 45 km from its center and tropical storm winds up to 185 km.
Over the next 12 to 24 hours, Rafael is expected to follow a northwesterly to west-northwestward track, moving further into the Gulf of Mexico and away from Cuba. Its intensity may fluctuate slightly over the next 12 to 18 hours.
Meteorological conditions in western Cuba
The western region of Cuba remains under the effects of sustained winds of 60 to 100 km/h, with gusts reaching 150 km/h.
In areas such as Mariel, Bahía Honda and La Palma, winds can reach sustained speeds between 110 and 140 km/h, with gusts of up to 180 km/h.
The strength of the winds is expected to gradually decrease throughout the night and early morning, although in the early hours of Thursday morning there could still be winds from the southeast to the south, between 25 and 50 km/h, with some gusts. superiors.
The bands of rain and thunderstorms associated with Rafael continue to affect the west and center of the country.
Accumulated rainfall between 60 and 150 mm is expected from Pinar del Río to Sancti Spíritus, and even up to 200-300 mm in some areas of the western region between Wednesday and Thursday. This could cause flooding in low-lying areas and landslides in mountainous areas.
Swells and waves on the Cuban coasts
The southern coast, from Sancti Spíritus to Matanzas, including the Isla de la Juventud and the Canarreos archipelago, continue strong swells with waves between 2.5 and 4 meters high, causing moderate coastal flooding that will decrease at night and early morning.
In the Gulf of Batabanó, light to moderate coastal flooding is observed, which will also reduce during the early morning hours.
The northern coast, from Pinar del Río to Mayabeque, has strong swells with waves of 3 to 5.5 meters, although coastal flooding is not expected in this area. However, heavy rains can cause water accumulation in low areas.
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**Interview with Dr. Ana Martinez, Meteorologist at the Cuban Meteorological Institute**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us, Dr. Martinez. Can you provide an update on Hurricane Rafael and its impact on Cuba?
**Dr. Martinez:** Thank you for having me. As of our latest report, Hurricane Rafael is currently located about 30 kilometers north of Bahía Honda, Artemisa, and 90 kilometers west-northwest of Havana. The hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 170 kilometers per hour and has weakened to a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, but it continues to pose significant threats to western Cuba.
**Interviewer:** What kinds of effects are we seeing as a result of the hurricane?
**Dr. Martinez:** The hurricane is generating intense winds, torrential rains, and dangerous storm surges across several provinces. The western part of the island is experiencing severe weather conditions, which have already led to issues with our electrical grid. This infrastructure damage is critical as it affects not only power supply but also emergency services.
**Interviewer:** What can you tell us about the forecast for Hurricane Rafael?
**Dr. Martinez:** Over the next 12 to 24 hours, we anticipate the hurricane to continue moving north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Its intensity might fluctuate slightly, but we expect it to gradually move away from Cuba. It’s crucial for residents to continue monitoring updates and remain vigilant as we assess the unfolding situation.
**Interviewer:** Given the current conditions, what advice do you have for those in affected areas?
**Dr. Martinez:** It’s imperative for residents to adhere to local authorities’ instructions. Stay indoors, avoid unnecessary travel, and prepare for possible evacuations if necessary. Stocking up on essentials and ensuring that emergency kits are ready can make a significant difference during these emergency situations.
**Interviewer:** Thank you for sharing this important information, Dr. Martinez. Stay safe, and we will continue to follow this story closely.
**Dr. Martinez:** Thank you. Our thoughts are with those affected, and we’re committed to providing accurate updates as the situation develops.
