Russian officials reacted positively to Donald Trump’s decisive presidential election victory over Vice President Kamala Harris on Wednesday, conveying a sense of cautious optimism regarding the potential for improved relations with the United States under his governance.
Unlike the current President Joe Biden, who has been an unwavering ally of Ukraine in its battle against the comprehensive Russian invasion, Trump has maintained a unique rapport with Vladimir Putin. He has reportedly kept in touch with the Russian leader even following the conclusion of his first term in the Oval Office, as detailed in a recent publication by renowned U.S. investigative journalist Bob Woodward.
Trump’s prior interactions and history with Putin, combined with the intricate blend of congenial dialogue and stringent sanctions that characterized his administration’s foreign policy towards Russia, have ignited conversations about his likely approach to Moscow after returning to power.
The Moscow Times delves into how Trump’s possible renewed presidency could transform U.S.-Russia relations by examining his earlier promises and the insights of recent experts.
Will there be a fresh start?
American politics expert Alexandra Filippenko asserted that Trump’s return to office will unequivocally influence the bilateral relationship between Moscow and Washington, which has deteriorated to unprecedented lows reminiscent of the Cold War’s peak.
Filippenko noted that the Kremlin’s decision to relieve Anatoly Antonov of his duties as Russian ambassador to the United States just a month before the election, along with the subsequent delay in appointing a successor, should be viewed as a “symbolic gesture” reflecting the Kremlin’s anticipation of a shift towards more favorable relations with Washington.
“This doesn’t mean that sanctions would be lifted or that Trump and Putin would be photographed shaking hands — that shouldn’t be expected,” Filippenko emphasized.
“Instead, we can expect that the process of mending bilateral relations will commence, which could not have been envisioned under Kamala Harris,” she added.
In contrast, Natasha Kuhrt, a distinguished expert in Russian foreign policy and senior lecturer at King’s College London, believes that a “reset” in diplomatic relations is currently “unlikely,” attributing this to the Obama administration’s prior “disastrous and poorly conceived” Russian reset initiative.
What about Ukraine?
“Assuming Trump carries out his pledge to end all defense assistance to Ukraine, then clearly his victory would be a disaster for Ukraine,” Kuhrt told The Moscow Times.
“Biden could try to draw up an assistance package before leaving office, but whether Trump would have to stick with that is unlikely given the predominance of Republicans in both the House and the Senate,” she added.
Trump has made a commitment to swiftly bring an end to the war in Ukraine if elected, although specific details regarding his strategy to achieve this have yet to be disclosed.
According to a report by The Washington Post, Trump’s proposal involves pressuring Kyiv to relinquish the annexed Ukrainian territories to Russia. This information comes from individuals privy to the discussions and who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the conversations.
Trump has reportedly expressed privately that he believes both Russia and Ukraine are seeking an exit strategy, indicating that residents in the annexed territories might be amenable to becoming part of Russia, as cited by The Washington Post.
“While it might seem as if Trump and Putin’s views on the war align, at the same time Trump is quite unpredictable, and Moscow probably finds this difficult to deal with,” noted Kuhrt.
Expert Filippenko echoed this perspective, stating, “Trump is accustomed to achieving what he wants by all possible means and is ready to exert any kind of pressure to reach his goals, meaning he could pressure Moscow by supplying Ukraine with all kinds of weapons it asks for.”
“Trump could also use arms delivery to Ukraine as a political tool to pressure both Putin and Zelensky into negotiations,” she suggested. “If he genuinely seeks to earn the acknowledgment of being the ‘world’s greatest peacemaker,’ he may adopt such measures.”
What does this mean for Western allies?
Throughout his political career, Trump has consistently expressed grievances with NATO, openly questioning its relevance in a modern geopolitical landscape and lamenting the disproportionate financial burden shouldered by the United States compared to its European allies.
In a significant move during 2020, Trump ordered the withdrawal of approximately 10,000 U.S. troops from Germany, thereby signaling Washington’s decreasing commitment to European defense.
“How does NATO survive as a meaningful alliance when the leadership of its dominant member is compromised by relations with its primary adversary?” Ruth Deyermond, a senior lecturer at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, queried.
“Many people are rightly pointing out that Europe needs to urgently increase defense spending, but governments are wary that escalating expenditures on international issues may mirror the domestic economic distress that contributed to Trump’s victory,” she elaborated in a social media discussion published Wednesday.
This sentiment was echoed by political analyst Dionis Cenusa, who forecasted turbulent fluctuations in transatlantic dialogue during Trump’s potential second administration.
“Crises are likely to arise if personalized interactions with Putin resume while trade conflicts with Xi flare up once more,” Cenusa warned, suggesting that the EU, and by extension Ukraine, might find itself increasingly isolated rather than forming strategic alliances with the U.S.
**Interview with Dr. Alexandra Filippenko, American Politics Expert**
**Interviewer:** Welcome, Dr. Filippenko. Thank you for joining us today to discuss the implications of Donald Trump’s victory and what that might mean for U.S.-Russia relations.
**Dr. Filippenko:** Thank you for having me. It’s a crucial topic that deserves attention.
**Interviewer:** Let’s dive right in. You mentioned in a recent analysis that Trump’s return to the presidency will significantly influence U.S.-Russia relations, which have been at an all-time low. Can you elaborate on how you see this influencing the relationship?
**Dr. Filippenko:** Certainly. Trump’s previous approach to Russia was marked by a unique blend of dialogue and sanctions. His ability to engage with Putin has not been seen from current leadership. The Kremlin’s recent diplomatic moves—such as relieving their ambassador—signal a desire for renewed dialogue. While we shouldn’t expect immediate changes like sanctions being lifted, we can anticipate the beginning of a process aimed at mending relations, unlike what we would see under Kamala Harris.
**Interviewer:** So you believe that the Kremlin is anticipating a genuine shift in U.S. policy?
**Dr. Filippenko:** Yes, exactly. The timing of diplomatic changes suggests they are preparing for a more favorable environment under Trump. However, let’s remember that this doesn’t necessarily mean the restoration of warm relations; it’s more about starting the conversation again.
**Interviewer:** That leads to some questions about Ukraine. Natasha Kuhrt has expressed concerns about Trump’s potential plans to cut military assistance to Ukraine. How do you view this?
**Dr. Filippenko:** Kuhrt raises a valid point. If Trump follows through on his promise to withdraw support for Ukraine, the consequences could indeed be dire for Kyiv. His ideas about negotiating peace—potentially at Ukraine’s expense—may not align with the interests of the Ukrainian people or their fight for sovereignty.
**Interviewer:** Are there any clear signals regarding how Trump intends to approach the war in Ukraine if he resumes office?
**Dr. Filippenko:** While Trump has hinted at wanting to end the war swiftly, specifics are sparse. Reports indicate he may pressure Ukraine into concessions. His private views suggest he believes both sides want out, which might lead to controversial decisions that could further alienate Ukraine from Western support.
**Interviewer:** Do you think Moscow is prepared for Trump’s unpredictability?
**Dr. Filippenko:** That’s the irony of the situation. While Trump’s previous rapport with Putin might be viewed as an advantage, his unpredictability poses challenges for Moscow. He’s known for his unorthodox methods and could leverage arms supplies to Ukraine as a bargaining chip, which complicates things further.
**Interviewer:** It seems like a delicate balance. As we look towards the future, do you think there’s a possibility for a true diplomatic reset?
**Dr. Filippenko:** A full reset seems unlikely at this moment. The historical context, especially the failed reset under the Obama administration, makes both sides wary. Instead, we may see initial steps towards engagement, but significant barriers remain.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. Filippenko, for sharing your insights on a complex and evolving situation.
**Dr. Filippenko:** Thank you for having me. It’s crucial to keep a close eye on how these dynamics unfold.