The Cuban Institute of Meteorology (Insmet) publishes tropical cyclone warning number 4 on the development and trajectory of Tropical Storm Rafael, a possible Hurricane in the next few hours.
During the early hours of today, Tropical Storm Rafael, located in the central Caribbean Sea, has gained in organization and intensity.
The maximum sustained winds increased to 95 kilometers per hour, with higher gusts, the minimum central pressure decreased to 993 hectoPascal.
At 6 in the morning, the central region of the Tropical Storm was estimated at 17.3 degrees North latitude and 77.8 degrees West longitude, a position that places it about 160 kilometers southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, 405 kilometers southeast from Grand Cayman Island and 670 kilometers southeast of Punta del Este, Isla de la Juventud.
It is moving on a course close to the northwest with a travel speed of 20 kilometers per hour.
In the next 12 to 24 hours this system will continue moving with a similar course and speed, approaching the vicinity of Jamaica.
During its movement it will continue to gain organization and intensity and could reach the category of hurricane near the Cayman Islands.
Insmet, morning report on Tropical Storm Rafael
Rains, showers and thunderstorms will continue in the eastern and central regions, which may be strong and intense in some locations. The rainfall will later extend to western Cuba.
The effects of the wind and the sea in the different regions of the country will depend on the trajectory and intensity that this tropical cyclonic organism reaches.
Taking into account the current position and future trajectory of this organization, the greatest attention must be paid to its evolution, the possible impacts on the national territory and the information issued by the Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology.
The next tropical cyclone warning for this system will be issued at noon.
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**Interview with Dr. Maria Velasquez, Meteorologist at the Cuban Institute of Meteorology**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Velasquez. Can you start by summarizing the current situation with Tropical Storm Rafael?
**Dr. Velasquez:** Absolutely. As of this morning, Tropical Storm Rafael has intensified significantly while situated in the central Caribbean Sea. It is currently characterized by maximum sustained winds reaching 95 kilometers per hour and a decreasing central pressure of 993 hectoPascals. This indicates that the storm is gaining strength and may soon reach hurricane status as it approaches the Cayman Islands and Cuba.
**Interviewer:** So, what are the specific forecasts for Rafael in the coming hours and days?
**Dr. Velasquez:** The Cuban Institute of Meteorology has issued tropical cyclone warning number 4, indicating that we expect Rafael to undergo what we call “rapid intensification.” This means it could become a hurricane within the next few hours. The storm is projected to move in a northwesterly direction, putting it in a position to impact the Cayman Islands and later Cuba. We are closely monitoring its trajectory and intensity.
**Interviewer:** What should people in the affected areas be doing to prepare?
**Dr. Velasquez:** Residents in the Cayman Islands and Cuba should heed local advisories and prepare for possible hurricane conditions. This includes securing belongings, preparing emergency kits with essentials like food, water, and medications, and having a plan for evacuation if necessary. We recommend staying tuned to official meteorological updates for the latest information on the storm’s path and intensity.
**Interviewer:** Are there any specific challenges that come with forecasting storms like Rafael?
**Dr. Velasquez:** Yes, forecasting hurricanes can be particularly challenging due to their rapidly changing nature. Factors like water temperature, wind shear, and atmospheric conditions can change abruptly, impacting both the storm’s intensity and pathway. Our team employs advanced models and technologies to provide the most accurate forecasts, but there is always a degree of uncertainty involved.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. Velasquez, for your insights. We hope everyone stays safe as Tropical Storm Rafael approaches.
**Dr. Velasquez:** Thank you for having me. Stay safe and informed!
