A Latvian from the USA: “Election day is here: some notes from California”
“Election day is here: some notes from California”, writes the Latvian, former member of the Saeima Gatis Eglītis from the USA on the social network “X” on November 5, expressing his observations about the election battle between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Eglitis writes on the social network:
“1. This election is the “closest” since 2000; Republicans were in the lead when K. Harris replaced J. Biden, but the positions have leveled off in the last month.
2. Historically, a Democratic candidate would have needed at least a 3 percentage point (pp) advantage over the Republicans (popular vote) in the primary election ratings to win the election with 270+ Electoral College votes, but this time this “law” may not work. There is a big chance that women’s votes will play in favor of K. Harris. Since the days of JFK, there has even been a saying that women voters form the backbone of the Democratic Party. For example, ~70% of African-American women support Harris, only ~15% support Trump.
3. In the previous vote by mail, the proportion of women/men is 54/46: women support K. Harris with a 9 pp advantage, men support D. Trump with an 8 pp advantage.
4. It seems that in recent weeks, a large number of undecided people have turned away from K. Harris, so that she refuses to give clear, rational answers to questions in interviews. Many undecideds also do not like the Democrats’ aggressive approach to Trump, JD Vance, calling them fascists, crazy, etc.
5. A poll conducted a few days ago asked who will win the presidential election? 44% answered D. Trump, 41% K. Harris, 16% answered that they do not know. Top issues for Americans: economy/cost of living (42%) and immigration (19%).
6. When can we expect the first results? At midnight Latvian time, polling stations will be closed in the SUN BELT states: Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, where good results for D.Trump are expected (also a lot of Mexican support for him). But the big intrigue is about the BLUE WALL states: so far in Wisconsin and Michigan, K. Harris has a 1-1.2 pp advantage, while in Pennsylvania D. Trump is in the lead with a slight 0.5 pp advantage. In voting by mail (about 20% of all votes), K. Harris has a big advantage in Pennsylvania, but ~66% of voters will cast their vote on election day, and D. Trump’s advantage is forming there. An interesting question in Pennsylvania is how the 80,000 Amish community will vote. In Michigan, both candidates have the same 49.4% rating.
7. ~38% of Americans believe that elections in America are not fair, especially in California, where ID is not required to vote. There is a risk that the supporters of the loser may not accept the election results calmly.
8. A big “anchor” for the Republicans in the last 2 years has been the abortion ban issue, so the Republicans removed it from their election manifesto in the summer. This makes it possible to attract new supporters: for example, California Senator G. Romero recently switched from the state’s ruling party, Democrats, to Republicans (for the first time in 80 years), until then she was deterred by the Republicans’ stance against abortion.
9. If D.Trump loses the election, the question will certainly arise whether it was a big mistake to agree to the CNN debate in Atlanta with J.Biden before the Chicago Democratic Convention approved him as a presidential candidate. J.Biden’s failure in the CNN debate gave the Democratic leadership a legitimate reason to “remove” J.Biden, who in turn was a much more capable opponent for D.Trump than K.Harris is.
10. Be that as it may: the result is so close that the election will be won by the party that will be able to mobilize its supporters more successfully by actually voting by mail or on election day.”
Election Day is here: some notes from California🇺🇸
1. These elections are the “closest” since 2000; Republicans were in the lead when K. Harris replaced J. Biden, but the positions have leveled off in the last month.
2. Historically, the Democratic candidate in the primary ratings… pic.twitter.com/7df9DMRca9
— Gatis Eglītis (@EglitisGatis) November 5, 2024
A Latvian from the USA: “Election Day Is Here: Some Notes from California”
Ah, Election Day in the good old US of A, where democracy is as vibrant as a freeway traffic jam after a celebrity malfunction. Gatis Eglītis, a Latvian former Saeima member now navigating the political battlegrounds of California, is here to dish out his hot takes on the chaotic spectacle we’ve come to love. Or loathe. But let’s be honest, it’s probably a bit of both!
Eglītis’s astute observations are as sharp as a butter knife, and we’ve got a list of ten captivating points that’ll have you rolling your eyes — or maybe just rolling off your chairs in laughter.
Election Day is here: some notes from California🇺🇸
1. These elections are the “closest” since 2000; Republicans were in the lead when K. Harris replaced J. Biden, but the positions have leveled off in the last month.
2. Historically, the Democratic candidate in the primary ratings…
Let’s dive in!
1. The Closeness: It’s Like Bumper Cars
Picture this: the Republicans cruising ahead until Ms. Kamala Harris burst onto the scene. But now? It’s as tight as a pair of Spanx post-Thanksgiving dinner. We’re talking the closest race since Y2K — a time when we feared our computers would implode, and little did we know that our political landscape would become even more explosive!
2. A Statistical Tango
Eglītis notes that over the years, Democrats have relied heavily on a solid lead in the primaries to secure their spot in the comfy presidential chair. He argues this year might be an exception — like that one time you thought you could play the ukulele but ended up making cat noises instead.
3. The Power of the Sisterhood
Turns out women are swinging votes harder than a bunch of high schoolers at a prom afterparty! They’re backing Kamala Harris like she’s the last slice of pizza. Sorry, Trump, but when it comes to ladies, the odds aren’t in your favor.
4. Forget “Keep Calm and Carry On”
Undecided voters seem to be doing anything but. K. Harris’s elusive responses have many scratching their heads like they’re trying to figure out how to use a fax machine. Meanwhile, the Democrats tossing around words like “fascists” may not win them any dessert at this political potluck.
5. Polls: Your Friend or Your Frenemy?
A recent poll puts Trump ahead just slightly. How can that be? Isn’t this the part where they say he’s “the king of the world”? Oh wait, that’s just what he thinks…
6. The Waiting Game
When will results roll in? At midnight Latvia time — which is much like waiting for the final season of your favorite TV show, except you might actually get surprised by the outcome! And just wait until we see how the Amish community votes. That’ll surely spark discussions over apple pie!
7. Fairness? What’s That?
About 38% of Americans believe elections aren’t fair, especially in California— an opinion as popular as avocado toast in San Francisco. But honestly, can we trust the critics? They can’t even agree on pineapple on pizza!
8. Abortion Ban: The Controversial Anchor
The abortion debate has docked some Republican ships recently, leading to some wild political maneuvering. It’s like watching a game of Twister — one wrong move and someone’s going down! Goodbye, old manifesto; hello, new supporters!
9. The CNN Debate Dilemma
If Trump loses, we’ll surely be asking if engaging in a debate with Biden was a rookie mistake. After all, a solid debate performance can be as pivotal as a good hair day!
10. The Battle of Mobilization
Ultimately, Eglītis summarily declares that it’s all about who can rally their troops. Who can get their peeps to the polls? All the memes, TikTok dances, and outrageous campaign slogans in the world won’t matter if your supporters decide to binge-watch Netflix instead of hitting the booths.
In the end, and as we so closely approach the election results, remember: politics might be a circus, but it’s one hell of a show. So grab your popcorn, and enjoy this rollercoaster of democracy! Just make sure to keep your arms and legs inside the ride at all times!
A Latvian from the USA: “Election day is here: some notes from California”
“Election day is here: some notes from California,” writes Gatis Eglītis, a Latvian and former member of the Saeima, from the USA on the social network “X” on November 5. He shares his insights into the heated electoral contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Eglitis writes on the social network:
“1. This election is touted as the ‘closest’ since the year 2000; initially, Republicans held a decisive lead when K. Harris took over from J. Biden, but in a remarkable turn of events, the positions have evened out over the past month, leaving both parties on shaky ground as voters head to the polls.
2. Historically, a Democratic candidate has needed a margin of at least 3 percentage points (pp) over Republicans in the primary election ratings to secure more than 270 Electoral College votes. However, this age-old ‘rule’ may not hold true this election. Notably, there’s a significant chance that women voters will be pivotal for K. Harris. Since the days of JFK, it’s been said that women voters are the backbone of the Democratic Party; for instance, approximately 70% of African-American women express support for Harris, whereas only about 15% lean towards Trump.
3. In previous mail-in voting, the demographic breakdown showed a split of 54/46 between women and men: women demonstrated their support for K. Harris with a 9 pp margin, while men indicated an 8 pp preference for D. Trump, exemplifying a stark divide in voter sentiment.
5. Recent polling conducted just days prior posed the question of who will prevail in the presidential election, revealing that 44% predict a victory for D. Trump, while 41% favor K. Harris; intriguingly, 16% remained uncertain about the outcome. The primary issues dominating Americans’ minds include the economy and cost of living (42%), followed by immigration (19%).
6. When can we expect the first results? At midnight Latvian time, polling stations will shut their doors in the Sun Belt states, including Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. Polls indicate favorable outcomes for D. Trump in these regions, where he also enjoys considerable support from the Mexican community. Meanwhile, the major intrigue lies within the Blue Wall states—currently, K. Harris shows a slight edge of 1-1.2 pp in Wisconsin and Michigan, while D. Trump leads in Pennsylvania by a narrow margin of 0.5 pp. With vote-by-mail comprising approximately 20% of total ballots, K. Harris boasts a significant advantage in Pennsylvania. However, around 66% of voters will cast their ballots on election day, potentially swaying the momentum in favor of D. Trump. An interesting variable in Pennsylvania remains the voting behavior of the 80,000-strong Amish community, while in Michigan, both candidates find themselves in a dead heat at 49.4% each.
7. Approximately 38% of Americans harbor doubts about the fairness of elections in the country, with California standing out where voter ID is not required, raising concerns about the legitimacy of the electoral process. This situation raises the specter that supporters of a defeated candidate may not accept the election results without contention.
10. Be that as it may, the race is so neck and neck that the victor will likely be the party that can effectively mobilize its base to turn out in significant numbers, whether through early voting, mail-in ballots, or final-day participation at the polls.”
Remain undecided. This uncertainty is akin to waiting for a carefully crafted cliffhanger episode on your favorite show, leaving everyone on the edge of their seats. Will the final act bring the twist we’ve all been dreading, or will it reinvent everything we thought we knew about the plot?
6. As we await results, the final tally is expected to roll in at midnight Latvia time—akin to the anticipation of a long-awaited sequel release. While we can speculate on trends and movements, it’s this imminent reveal that will dictate the narrative going forward.
7. A notable sentiment among voters is skepticism about the electoral process; 38% believe elections are rigged, especially here in California. This pervasive doubt is as common as the debates over whether ranch dressing belongs on pizza—everyone has an opinion, but consensus is elusive. Judging by the uproar on social media, the critics may need to focus on solidifying their arguments rather than diving headfirst into agrarian nuances.
8. Another significant issue at play is the abortion debate, which has recently rocked the Republican ship. The pivotal discussions around this topic have prompted some Republicans to reconsider their stance, reminiscent of a game of chess where one misplaced piece could lead to a checkmate—and a loss of support.
9. Should Trump find himself on the losing side of this contest, questions will arise about the strategic choice of participating in debates with Biden. The political arena mirrors the high stakes of a fashion runway; one error in presentation could lead to insurmountable consequences.
10. Ultimately, the crux of this election hinges on voter mobilization. Which candidate successfully rallies their supporters to make it to the polls? Despite the endless stream of memes, compelling TikTok campaigns, and vibrant slogans, the reality holds that if fans of either side opt for a Netflix marathon instead of casting their votes, the outcomes could dramatically sway in unpredictable directions.
As we inch closer to uncovering the final results of this contentious election, keep in mind that while politics often resembles a circus, it remains a high-stakes production worthy of our attention. Grab your snacks and attire yourself for the palpable excitement; this is democracy at its most entertaining and tumultuous!
