These are the last moments of the campaign in the US, and polls still indicate that every vote will count in the fight for the White House. According to a New York Times/Siena College survey conducted in seven key states, Donald Trump improved his result in Pennsylvania, where he tied Kamala Harris. However, this one leads in four other states. However, the differences between them are minimal.
This year’s presidential campaign in the US is focused on seven key states – they will, in practice, decide the winner of the presidential election. Three of them are industrial “rust belt” states that historically favor Democrats – Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10). The remaining states are the southern states of the “sunbelt”, until recently Republican strongholds – North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and the desert states of Arizona (11) and Nevada (6).
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The competition between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is extremely fierce, which means that the outcome remains highly uncertain until the final moments. Meanwhile, the campaign is entering its final moments.
As the New York Times writes, polls haven’t shown such a close presidential race in decades in so many states in both the Sun Belt and the Rust Belt. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll, published on Sunday (the study is considered one of the most reputable in the US), shows a slight advantage for the Democratic Party candidate in four of the seven key states.
This is Nevada, where, according to the survey, Harris wins 49 percent. compared to 46 percent Donald Trump, North Carolina – 48 percent up to 46 percent, Wisconsin – 49 percent. up to 47 percent, Georgia – 48 percent. up to 47 percent
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Trump and Harris scored identically in Pennsylvania (48% each) and Michigan (47% each). In Arizona, the Republican Party candidate is in the lead with 49 percent. up to 45 percent
As the Journal notes, in all previous NYT/Siena polls conducted since Harris entered the race, the vice president had a four-point lead in Pennsylvania. Now the result has put the rivals in this region on an equal footing.
However, the NYT notes that “results in all seven states are within the margin of error, meaning neither candidate has a decisive advantage in any of these states.”
Nevertheless, the newspaper points out, “there are signals that people who have only recently decided who to vote for are leaning towards Harris.” According to the American daily, she wins in this group by 55 percent to 44 percent.
Support for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in seven key statesNew York Times/Siena Collage
TVN24 BiS journalist Michał Sznajder, who is in Washington and closely follows the competition for the presidency in the United States, reported on TVN24 that “the last several dozen hours are simply a festival of polls, from which one piece of information emerges – that no one can be certain of victory.”
He also emphasized that the New York Times/Siena College study “is probably the most valued, most reputable survey in the United States.” – He is always very widely quoted – he noted.
– Of course, Pennsylvania is particularly important because of all the swing states, it has the most electoral votes up for grabs there, as many as 19 – he explained. As Sznajder said, experts “actually agree that whoever wins in Pennsylvania can almost rest assured of the presidency.”
Michał Sznajder about the election polls in USATVN24
Some Americans have already voted. Who had more support among them?
It is worth noting that, according to data from the University of Florida Election Lab, the poll was conducted after over 70 million Americans had voted.
The NYT reports that “about 40 percent of those polled by the New York Times/Siena College in seven states said they had already voted.” Harris wins this group by eight percentage points. Trump has an advantage among voters who say they will vote soon.
The newspaper highlights that early voting rates are particularly high in North Carolina, where more than half of voters said they had already voted. Kamala Harris beats Donald Trump by 8 percentage points among respondents from this state who have already put their ballot in the ballot box.
Supporters of Kamala Harris at her rally in Atalanta. Georgia, USAPAP/EPA/EDWARD M. PIO RODA
What’s more, the Democrat has an advantage over the former president among people who have already voted in almost all key states – except Arizona. There 46 percent of those asked said they had already cast their votes. Of those, 50 percent supported Trump and 46 percent supported Harris.
What topics interest voters
The survey also shows some change in what topics became most important to Americans in the final phase of the campaign.
Economic issues still dominate, but in Wisconsin, for example, the issue of abortion is almost as important. Meanwhile, in Arizona, the importance of migration is increasing as a key topic for voters’ decisions.
The New York Times/Siena College poll was conducted among a sample of 7,878 declared voters between October 24 and November 2. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 pp in each condition.
Main photo source: PAP/EPA/ERIK S. LESSER
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the final act of the political circus that is the U.S. presidential campaign! As we unroll the red carpet to the White House, every vote is a golden ticket—because, believe it or not, folks, it’s shaping up to be as nail-biting as a soap opera finale! According to the latest New York Times/Siena College survey, it seems that in Pennsylvania, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are engaging in a delightful tango! They’re tied, and she still leads in four other states. It’s a rollercoaster of electoral excitement!
So, where’s the spotlight on this electoral stage? Ah, the glorious seven key states, the ones that hold the keys to the Oval Office, or whatever you funky Americans call it. We’re talking about the industrial “rust belt” starlets: Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), and Wisconsin (10). Add to that mix the southern “sunbelt” players, which recently became a bit more Democratic. We’re talking about North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Arizona (11), and Nevada (6). It’s like an electoral game show, and the stakes couldn’t be higher!
Now, let’s get down to the details, shall we? The competition between Trump, a man who thinks he invented America, and Harris, who has been making quite the name for herself, is more intense than a Lee Evans comedy routine! Polling is showing a fierce contest, with results so close that, if I were a betting man (and I assure you I’m not, unless it’s on the right punchline), I’d be sweating bullets.
According to the latest polling from our friendly neighborhood New York Times, Harris is strutting ahead in four of the crucial states. Nevada? She’s leading 49% to Trump’s 46%. North Carolina? A solid 48% to 46%. Wisconsin? 49% to 47%. Georgia? Same story at 48% to 47%. Meanwhile, in a shocking twist, Trump and Harris are side by side like they’re on a political dating app in Pennsylvania and Michigan. That’s right folks, both clocking in at 48% each in Pennsylvania—it’s a tie! That place must be giving out free coffee to keep up with this madness!
But hold your horses! The esteemed New York Times has thrown a wet blanket on everyone’s jubilation, mentioning that these results could be as accurate as a drunk man’s attempts to draw a straight line—meaning they’re all within the margin of error. It’s about as predictable as a cat on a hot tin roof!
But there’s a twist in the plot! It seems that the undecideds—those folks standing in the middle of the dance floor—are leaning in Harris’s direction. They’re like the crowd at a stand-up comedy show waiting for a punchline: they want something—55% of them want Harris! Talk about a surprising turn of events!
Michał Sznajder over at TVN24, clearly feeling the pressure akin to being the last slice of pizza at a party, has punctuated this polling frenzy stating, “No one can be certain of victory!” It’s like playing poker with a room full of bluffers, and Pennsylvania? That’s the kingpin. With the most electoral votes at stake, the winner there is practically wearing the presidential crown already. Talk about high stakes!
Voting: Early Birds and Topics of Interest
Now we’ve had over 70 million Americans leap into the voting pool already! Yes, that’s right—about 40% of those leaned towards Harris, who is winning early voters by a solid margin of eight percentage points. Seems like Trump is getting a bit too excited and is counting his chickens before they hatch among those who plan to vote soon. I mean, slow down, Donald, we don’t know the results yet! It’s not a race to the finish line just yet!
Each state has its own candy shop of issues. In Wisconsin, abortion is approaching economic issues in importance—because what’s more appealing than a woman’s right to choose, am I right? And Arizona? The migration topic is heating up faster than my last batch of poorly made chili! Who knew a political campaign could be so spicy?
Main photo source: PAP/EPA/ERIK S. LESSER
T wait, there’s more! While Harris may be winning over early voters by a significant margin, Trump still has a strong foothold among those planning to vote shortly. With early voting rates skyrocketing, particularly in North Carolina, it’s a head-to-head showdown that feels straight out of a thriller novel!
So, to dive deeper into this electoral extravaganza, we’ve invited political analyst and commentator, Laura Goodman. Laura, welcome to the show!
**Interviewer**: Thank you for joining us, Laura! First off, how do you read the latest polling results? Are we really looking at a toss-up?
**Laura**: Thank you for having me! Yes, it’s truly a nail-biter! The polls indicate that we are in for a very tight race. In Pennsylvania, where both Trump and Harris are tied, it shows just how critical this state is… The former industrial stronghold seems up for grabs, and with 19 electoral votes, it’s a game-changer.
**Interviewer**: Absolutely! And with Harris leading in four other states, how much weight should we put into this information?
**Laura**: While Harris has the edge in those states, it’s essential to remember the margin of error. In polling, while it gives us an insight into voter sentiment, these numbers can fluctuate significantly. Both candidates have opportunities to sway undecided voters, and that makes everything very unpredictable.
**Interviewer**: Speaking of unpredictable, how crucial are early voters in shaping this election narrative?
**Laura**: Early voters are incredibly important. They account for a considerable portion of the electorate, and their preferences could signal broader trends. Kamala Harris’s eight-point lead among early voters is promising for her campaign, particularly since it indicates that enthusiasm might be on her side at this juncture. But Trump still has a solid base geared up for election day.
**Interviewer**: And what about the issues? How are current hot topics influencing voter decisions?
**Laura**: Economic issues undoubtedly lead the charge, but we’re seeing varied interests across states. In Wisconsin, for example, abortion has surged to the forefront of voter concerns. In Arizona, immigration is becoming increasingly crucial. Candidates that can tap into these localized topics will likely resonate better with voters.
**Interviewer**: Fascinating insights, Laura! As we count down to election day, what should voters keep in mind?
**Laura**: Voters should remember that every single vote truly counts. Given how tight these races are, make sure to research local issues, know how to vote, and of course, encourage others to do the same. The stakes have never been higher!
**Interviewer**: Thank you, Laura, for those valuable perspectives. With the clocks ticking down, it’s sure to be a week filled with electoral excitement!
And there you have it—an exhilarating close to the race! With everything on the line come Tuesday, let’s see who will take home that golden ticket to the White House!
