Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Over the last two years, the Detroit Lions have established themselves as a formidable force in sports betting, particularly when it comes to covering the point spread. With an impressive performance record, they have emerged as a go-to pick for betting enthusiasts.
When the Lions not only secure victories but also cover the spread, bettors find their wallets benefiting significantly from their winning ways.
This trend continued during NFL Week 9, as Detroit once again proved to be a reliable option for bettors looking for profitable returns.
With the Lions joining the ranks of other favored teams, which notably includes the Washington Commanders, bettors enjoyed a boost while bookmakers faced the brunt of the public’s winning streak.
“Too many favorites winning and covering. It was a good Sunday for the public,” remarked John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook, highlighting a trend that left bookmakers in a tough spot.
Oddsmakers from sportsbooks all around the country offered insights and recaps from the exhilarating weekend of NFL and college football betting.
Detroit Diesel
Since the midpoint of the 2022 season, the act of betting on the Lions has become almost effortless, as they boast an astonishing 30-8 record against the spread (ATS) across their last 38 matchups.
In a notable clash on Sunday, the Lions took on the Green Bay Packers as 2.5-point favorites, comfortably securing a 24-14 win that contributed to a strong overall performance by favorites, who were 10-4 ATS in Week 9.
These favorable results prompted sportsbook operators to voice their frustrations on Sunday night; one such sentiment was shared by Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports at TwinSpires Sportsbook, who described the situation as “Awful. Brutal afternoon and an even worse evening.”
Alongside the Lions’ victory, the late window of NFL games also featured the Los Angeles Rams, who triumphed 27-20 in overtime against the Seattle Seahawks and the Minnesota Vikings, who edged past the Indianapolis Colts 21-13 as 6-point home favorites.
While the Philadelphia Eagles narrowly escaped a cover as 7.5-point home favorites after defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars 28-23, their win ensured that moneyline parlays remained intact for many bettors, benefitting those who backed Detroit and Minnesota as well.
“The public had a good day, and I’m sure they will roll over into the Chiefs on Monday night,” predicted BetMGM senior trader Tristan Davis.
Kansas City is a commanding 9-point favorite as they prepare to face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions DOMINATE vs. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
In Command, In Demand
The Washington Commanders have surprised many by achieving a remarkable 7-2 record this season, surpassing the preseason expectation of 6.5 wins. Adding to their appeal for bettors, the Commanders are currently tied with the Lions at 7-1-1 against the spread.
On Sunday, they faced the New York Giants, emerging victorious with a score of 27-22 while successfully covering as a 4-point road favorite, thwarting a late two-point attempt by the Giants after a crucial touchdown.
Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has significantly boosted the popularity of the Washington team among betting circles.
“Our biggest need of the day was the Giants. Just super-one-way action on the Commanders,” Murray observed, noting the surprising shift in public perception regarding Washington’s betting appeal.
At BetMGM, the Commanders garnered the highest number of point-spread tickets and overall betting volume of any team this week. A similar trend was noted at DraftKings Sportsbook, where the Commanders topped the list for both bet count and money.
Giving Back
Despite the wave of popular favorites winning, sportsbooks experienced a few victories that helped mitigate their losses. The struggling Carolina Panthers, who have faced a challenging season, found themselves as 7-point home underdogs against the equally struggling New Orleans Saints.
In a surprising turn of events, the Panthers secured an outright victory by edging past the Saints with a final score of 23-22 after stopping a critical two-point conversion attempt following a touchdown.
Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills, one of the few favored teams unable to cover, managed to narrowly defeat the Miami Dolphins 30-27 after pulling off a last-second field goal.
“The Dolphins [covering] was one of our most needed outcomes,” expressed BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini, indicating the importance of this result for the books.
South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews remarked, “Miami was good for us, Carolina was really good. And the Ravens were actually good for us,” as the Ravens’ substantial defeat of Denver with a score of 41-10 provided some relief for bookmakers.
Ohio State BEATS Penn State: ‘One of the most impressive wins in the Ryan Day era’
On Campus
In college football, the Week 10 odds revealed that most sportsbooks were hoping for a win from Penn State as bettors widely favored Ohio State in an electrifying Big Ten matchup. The Buckeyes closed as 3-point favorites and successfully covered after clinching a 20-13 victory on the road.
At BetMGM, the three teams that attracted the most betting action on the spread — Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon — all emerged victorious and covered their respective spreads. Indiana, listed as a 7.5-point favorite, initially fell behind 10-0 against Michigan State before surging to a commanding 47-10 win. Oregon, a robust 14.5-point favorite, decisively defeated Michigan with a final score of 38-17.
While the public betting masses celebrated these wins, BetMGM managed to reclaim profitability with strong outcomes in other games.
“The Florida cover was a great result,” noted BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee, highlighting a successful end to the day. “And we had a great finish to the night. Louisville, South Carolina, and SMU made it a good day for the book.”
One of the highlights of the day involved Georgia, who was a popular 14.5-point favorite against Florida. Despite trailing at halftime with a score of 13-6, the Gators managed to keep the game competitive, eventually falling 34-20 and covering the spread by half-point.
However, Clemson, a 10.5-point favorite at home against Louisville, suffered an unexpected defeat, falling 33-21, alongside Texas A&M, who was a 3-point favorite at South Carolina and lost decisively 44-20. Furthermore, popular 7-point underdog Pitt was unable to fend off SMU, losing 48-25.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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Honey. “We needed them to come through for us among a sea of favorites winning overall.”
As the NFL and college football seasons unfold, sportsbooks are continually adjusting their strategies in response to public betting trends. Operators are especially keen on monitoring the performance of underdogs and the shifting dynamics in the market, which can significantly impact their bottom line.
while the weekend’s games favored public bettors with numerous victories from favorite teams, there were standout performances from teams like the Carolina Panthers and the Miami Dolphins that provided some relief for sportsbooks. As wagering activity continues to grow, operators like BetMGM and TwinSpires Sportsbook remain vigilant to trends and outcomes that could sway the betting landscape.
