2024-11-04 21:04:00
The New York Stock Exchange closed lower on Monday, as investors prepare to go through a zone of turbulence on the eve of the presidential election and a few days before a new meeting of the American central bank.
The Dow Jones fell 0.61%, the Nasdaq index lost 0.33% and the broader S&P 500 index lost 0.28%.
A few hours before the American election which promises to be particularly close, “there are a lot of fears accumulating”, adds the analyst.
At the opening Monday, the American market reacted to the publication of a poll by the daily Des Moines Register, giving the Democratic candidate in the lead against the former president in Iowa, a state where Donald Trump won in each of the last elections.
This rise of Kamala Harris in the polls caused the yield on 10-year US government bonds to fall to 4.29%, compared to 4.38% at the close on Friday. Earlier in the day, they had fallen to 4.27%.
“There will be a lot of back and forth on the market (…) until the winner is announced,” said Mr. Sarhan.
Wall Street “hopes for a clear result and that there is no dispute, because the markets like certainty”, he added.
Investors are also awaiting the meeting of officials of the American central bank (Fed) on Wednesday and Thursday.
The Fed lowered its key rates by half a percentage point in September, and two additional quarter-point cuts are anticipated by the end of 2024, an additional half-point less in total.
In the table of values, Nvidia advanced (+0.48%) after the announcement on Friday of its integration into the famous Dow Jones index.
The semiconductor giant will replace its competitor Intel (-2.93%) before the opening of the November 8 session on Wall Street.
Several nuclear energy companies fell on Monday, affected by the refusal of the American energy regulator of a project to supply power to Amazon (-1.09%).
The operator Talen Energy, with whom Amazon had agreed to buy a data storage and processing center, lost (-2.23%).
A major operator of nuclear power plants in the United States, Constellation Energy (-12.46%) collapsed, as did Vistra Corp (-3.15%).
The energy sector shone, benefiting from the rise in oil prices and helped by the announcement of a postponement of the production increase of the OPEC+ alliance (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners).
ExxonMobil (+3.18%), Chevron (+0.59%), EOG Resources (+1.73%) and ConocoPhillips (+0.95%) all finished in the green.
Tesla was sanctioned (-2.47%) after the decline in its sales of electric vehicles in China, while its Chinese competitor NIO was rewarded (+0.78%) for good figures.
Boeing kept its head above water (+0.31%) while the more than 33,000 striking workers of the aircraft manufacturer were to vote on a new draft social agreement on Monday.
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**Interview: Economic Analyst Discusses Wall Street’s Election Predictions**
**Host:** Welcome to our weekly financial update. Today, we’re joined by economic analyst Sarah Johnson to discuss the insights from Wall Street regarding the upcoming presidential election. Sarah, thank you for being here.
**Sarah:** Thanks for having me!
**Host:** So, Sarah, earlier today a SumZero survey revealed that many professional investors expect Donald Trump to win the election. How significant is this prediction for the markets?
**Sarah:** It’s quite significant. When major investors signal confidence in a candidate, it often reflects their expectations for the economic policies that candidate would implement. In Trump’s case, many believe his policies typically favor businesses and could provide a more favorable environment for the stock market.
**Host:** Interesting. But we’ve also seen the markets reacting negatively leading up to the election. Why is there such turbulence?
**Sarah:** Yes, the markets closed lower on Monday, and this is largely due to uncertainty. Polls indicate a tight race—Kamala Harris is currently gaining ground in key states like Iowa. This uncertainty creates volatility as investors try to assess potential outcomes and their impacts on the economy.
**Host:** You mentioned the drop in government bond yields. What does that indicate about investor sentiment?
**Sarah:** The drop in yields suggests that investors are seeking safety amidst uncertainty. When political risks rise, many tend to move their money into less risky assets like government bonds, which pushes yields down. It’s a classic flight to safety.
**Host:** And you referred to the desire for a clear result from the election. How does uncertainty affect market performance?
**Sarah:** Absolutely. Markets thrive on certainty. If the result is close and there’s potential for disputes or recounts, that could lead to prolonged volatility. Investors prefer a decisive outcome to move forward with their strategies confidently.
**Host:** Lastly, what should investors be keeping an eye on as we approach the election day?
**Sarah:** Investors should watch the polling data closely, particularly in key battleground states, and keep an ear out for any news regarding potential disputes. Also, the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve will be crucial, as interest rates and monetary policy can significantly influence market reactions in this volatile period.
**Host:** Great insights, Sarah. Thank you for joining us today!
**Sarah:** Thank you for having me!
**Host:** And that’s all for our market update. As the election draws near, remember to stay informed and prepared for any unexpected fluctuations.
