2024-10-30 13:00:00
How many are there: 300, 400, 600… more? Since the 2022 European embargo on Russian oil and the <a href="https://www.archyde.com/putin-says-that-more-than-60-of-russias-energy-exports-correspond-to-the-asia-pacific/" title="Putin says that more than 60% of Russia's energy exports correspond to the Asia-Pacific”>sanctions capping the sale prices of Russian hydrocarbons in early 2023, the G7 countries and their allies have been concerned about the proliferation of the number of clandestine vessels used by Moscow to sell its oil. in complete opacity. So much so that the United Kingdom unveiled new sanctions for the fourth time, on October 17, targeting 18 new oil tankers which can no longer enter British ports, nor benefit from maritime services provided by companies in the country, in particular in matters of insurance. The ships of the Russian “ghost fleet” – so numerous that it is better to speak of “the” ghost fleets – are increasingly elusive.
In fact, attention was first focused on old tankers directly chartered by Russia. These were mainly boats belonging to the Russian public hydrocarbon company Sovcomflot, insured by non-Western companies and sailing in conditions that were as opaque as they were risky from a maritime security point of view. But Sovcomflot was quickly placed sous sanctionssoon followed by Sun Ship Managementthe Dubai shipowner which had tried to discreetly take back its ships, in the spring of 2022.
Now, new ghost fleets have come as reinforcements or have taken over, to transport Russian oil and hydrocarbons without respecting the price ceilings imposed under Western sanctions. They panic the radars of States and companies specializing in ocean surveillance, allowing Russia to continue to benefit from its oil windfall. However, there are insufficient figures to measure the extent of the phenomenon.
According to the latest estimates from the Kyiv School of Economics, established at the beginning of October, Russia would have invested nearly 10 billion dollars (9.26 billion euros) to set up a ghost fleet of several hundred ships, estimated at nearly from 600 in July. The latter would transport 70% of Russian oil exports by sea, and even 90% of crude. Transported volumes have quadrupled since April 2022.
Thus, part of the maritime transport market would now have passed into the hands of these small, ultra-opaque operators, closely linked to Moscow and located in the United Arab Emirates as well as in India and Asia, as noted from November 2023 Public Eye, a Swiss organization that investigates the social responsibility of multinationals. Their expansion is taking place with the help of flags of convenience, particularly located on the African continent, such as in Liberia, where controls remain rare.
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**Interview with Dr. Marina Petrov, Oil Market Analyst**
**Interviewer:** Good afternoon, Dr. Petrov. Thanks for joining us to discuss the recent developments regarding Russia’s oil trade and the emergence of the so-called “shadow fleets.” Can you start by explaining what you mean by “shadow fleet”?
**Dr. Petrov:** Good afternoon. A “shadow fleet” refers to the clandestine network of oil tankers that have been adapted or repurposed to transport Russian oil in defiance of Western sanctions. Since the European embargo and the G7-imposed price caps, many of these vessels operate without transparency, making it challenging for authorities to track their movements or enforce sanctions effectively.
**Interviewer:** Can you elaborate on the implications of these shadow fleets for international sanctions?
**Dr. Petrov:** Absolutely. The existence of these fleets undermines the effectiveness of sanctions designed to limit Russia’s access to global oil markets. With estimates suggesting hundreds of these vessels are now in operation, Russia is finding ways to circumvent price caps. Moreover, the continued ability to sell oil allows them to maintain revenue streams critical for their economy.
**Interviewer:** The recent UK sanctions targeting 18 oil tankers suggest that governments are responding to this issue. How effective do you think these measures will be?
**Dr. Petrov:** While the UK’s sanctions signal a robust response, the challenge lies in enforcement. As the shadow fleets grow, tracking and sanctioning individual vessels becomes increasingly complex. The effective enforcement of sanctions requires international cooperation and real-time monitoring, which is a significant hurdle.
**Interviewer:** What about the maritime security risks associated with these ghost fleets?
**Dr. Petrov:** That’s an important concern. Many of these older tankers are sailing under risky conditions, often without proper maintenance. This raises possibilities for environmental incidents, such as oil spills, which can have severe consequences for marine ecosystems and global shipping routes.
**Interviewer:** In your opinion, what strategies should countries adopt to combat the rise of these shadow fleets?
**Dr. Petrov:** Enhanced maritime surveillance and intelligence-sharing among nations is crucial. Additionally, creating incentives for shipowners to avoid engaging with these fleets, such as stricter penalties or repercussions for non-compliance, could deter illicit activities. Ultimately, a coordinated international approach is necessary to effectively counter this growing issue.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. Petrov, for sharing your insights on this pressing issue. Your expertise on oil markets is invaluable as we navigate these complex challenges.
**Dr. Petrov:** Thank you for having me. It’s an ongoing situation that warrants close attention from all stakeholders involved.
