On the survey Selzer & Co has carried out for the local newspaper Des Moines Register and Mediacom, Harris gets 47 percent support, while Trump lands on 44 percent.
It is a big change from a similar poll in September, when Trump had a lead of 4 percentage points.
– Hardly anyone can say they saw this coming, says J. Ann Selzer, the head of the company that carried out the measurement.
– Oracle of the Midwest
More American media writes that it is a “shock poll” that is now available, just a few days before the election.
Several people point out that Selzer and her company have done very well in the past. Politico describes her as an “Oracle of the Midwest” with very high quality polling.
The figures indicate that it is especially older, politically independent women who now support Harris to a greater extent.
Trump lead in other measurement
The picture is still not clear-cut. Another poll conducted by Emerson College for RealClearDefence gives Trump a solid lead in Iowa with 54 percent to 45 for Harris.
This measurement must also be of high quality. The Emerson poll includes only Trump and Harris, while Selzer & Co has also included other candidates.
The result in the Selzer measurement is also within the margin of error.
Iowa accounts for six of the 538 electoral delegates in the college that formally elect the president. Until now, the state has not been considered a swing state in this year’s election.
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**Interview Transcript: Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump Polling Analysis**
**Host:** Welcome back to our show! Today, we’re diving into the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll results, which have captured significant attention. Joining us to discuss this is political analyst Jane Smith. Thank you for being here, Jane!
**Jane Smith:** Thank you for having me!
**Host:** The poll conducted by Selzer & Co shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 47% to 44%. What do you think are the key factors driving this result?
**Jane Smith:** There are several factors at play. For one, Harris’s positive ratings and connection with voters on issues like healthcare and social justice are resonating in Iowa. Additionally, Trump’s ongoing controversies might be impacting his appeal, even in traditionally strong Republican areas.
**Host:** Interesting point. Iowa is often seen as a bellwether for presidential elections. How significant is this lead for Harris at this stage?
**Jane Smith:** It’s quite significant. Polls in Iowa can set the tone for the rest of the campaign. If Harris can sustain or grow this lead, it signals strength heading into primary season and demonstrates that she has a viable path to challenge Trump.
**Host:** With the election still quite a ways off, how much weight should we give to this poll?
**Jane Smith:** While it’s important, we should be cautious about over-interpreting any single poll. Voter sentiment can change rapidly. However, trends in polling can provide valuable insights into voter concerns and candidate appeal.
**Host:** What should we keep an eye on moving forward?
**Jane Smith:** I’d suggest watching how both candidates respond to this information. Harris may seek to solidify her base, while Trump will likely continue to energize his supporters. Additionally, upcoming debates and campaign events will be critical in shaping voter perceptions.
**Host:** Great insights, Jane. Thanks for joining us and breaking down this important polling data!
**Jane Smith:** My pleasure! Thank you for having me.
**Host:** And that’s all for today’s interview. Stay tuned for more updates and analysis on the upcoming election!