Jon Tester is an increasingly unusual case. He is a Democrat, but has sat in the Senate for a state that votes evenly for the Republicans since 2007. Now it may be over for him, and with that the party’s majority in the chamber will probably also collapse.
Since 2020, the Democrats have had a majority in the Senate – when you include four independent senators who usually vote with the party. This year, however, it is mainly the senators who were elected in 2018 who are up for re-election. It was a good year for the Democrats, and thus they are defending more seats now.
Of the 34 seats in the Senate to be elected this year, 19 are currently held by Democrats, four by independents and eleven by Republicans.
Most are safe
Most places are “safe”. IN Fivethirtyeights projection of the Senate election, the Democrats will with great certainty retain twelve seats and probably a further four. The independent senators Angus King and Bernie Sanders are also probably safe.
Republicans are well positioned to keep all of theirs, although some senators are less secure than others. In a few places, however, the place can change hands and thus also tip the majority.
The other two independent senators, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, are stepping down for the Senate this year. Here it is predicted that Sinema’s place will go to the Democrats, while Manchin’s place will go to the Republicans. The rest of the places where there is tension are Jon Tester’s place in Montana and Democrat Sherrod Brown’s place in Ohio.
Not everyone sits as securely
Should the Republicans win both of these, they have a majority of 52 out of 100 senators. However, Tester has been out on a winter night before and bailed out of difficult situations at the polls. Both he and Sherrod Brown are centrist Democrats who can appeal broadly. This, together with a solid lead in spending, is what the party is counting on.
There are several other Democrats and Republicans who are not completely secure: the Democrats’ seats in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are pointed to as vulnerable, as are the Republican seats in Florida, Texas and Nebraska.
Independent candidate could win in Nebraska
The latter is a special case: Both senators in the state are up for election. The Republicans are likely to retain one, while Deb Fischer is fighting a tough battle against independent candidate Dan Osborn. The opinion polls are mostly taken up by the candidates themselves and show results accordingly.
The former union leader Osborn hammers away at Fischer as an elitist millionaire and part of a broken system, while he points to himself as someone who can work for ordinary people, writes the AP news agency.
Regardless of how things go in Nebraska, however, it seems very likely that the Republicans will take the majority in the Senate. This could create major problems for Kamala Harris if she wins the presidential election – especially with appointing ministers, ambassadors, civil servants and judges.
The Republicans may lose their narrow majority
However, what happens in the House of Representatives is more unclear. Here, the Republicans have barely had a majority since 2022, but it is far from certain that they will retain that.
Where in the Senate there are two senators per state, the House’s 435 members are elected in one-person constituencies distributed by population. The vast majority of constituencies are considered safe for one of the parties, according to Fivethirtyeight the Democrats are, so to speak, secured 177 seats and the Republicans 191 seats as of 28 October. In addition, 28 places with the Democrats and 13 with the Republicans fall into the “probable” category, while there are a total of 26 places that only lean towards one party or are genuinely uncertain.
Among the seats in play is Alaska’s electoral district. Here, Republican Don Young was dominant for half a century, but when he died in 2022, Democrat Mary Peltola won a sensational victory. However, she will have to fight hard to keep this place in 2024.
Both parties are also betting hard on winning in California and New York, states where the Democrats dominate at the state level, but where the Republicans have won a number of constituencies in recent years.
Can write history in many ways
The 2024 election will be written in block letters in American history anyway. But there are exceptionally high chances for a very special milestone, points out CNN.
Today, the Democrats have a majority in the Senate, the Republicans have it in the House of Representatives. After the election, it may be the other way around – the Senate will probably shift to the Republicans, the House of Representatives is almost impossible to predict. In that case, it will be the first time in the US’s 250-year history that the chambers of Congress change their majority in the opposite direction.
In that case, Hakeem Jeffries will also end up as Speaker (Leader) of the House, as the first African-American. Who the Republicans choose to lead the Senate is more uncertain, as their group leader Mitch McConnell is stepping down after the election.
#Historic #congressional #election #steps #chambers #change #hands
**Interview with Political Analyst Sarah Collins on the Montana Senate Race**
**Host:** Welcome to our show, Sarah! The Montana Senate race is heating up with Jon Tester facing a tough challenge. What is the current state of this race, and why is it significant for both parties?
**Sarah Collins:** Thanks for having me! The Montana Senate race is crucial because it could determine the balance of power in the Senate. Jon Tester has been a resilient Democratic voice in a state that has historically leaned Republican. His seat is one of the most vulnerable, especially as Democrats are defending more seats this year than Republicans.
**Host:** That’s a good point. Tester has a long history in the Senate—how do his centrist positions play into his reelection bid?
**Sarah Collins:** Tester’s centrist approach has allowed him to appeal to a wide range of voters in Montana. He has a track record of bipartisanship, which could be instrumental this election cycle. However, he is facing not just Republican opposition, but also a challenging political environment where Democrats are on the defensive.
**Host:** There are also other Democratic senators in precarious positions, like Sherrod Brown in Ohio. How do their races intersect with Tester’s campaign?
**Sarah Collins:** Absolutely. The stakes are high for both Tester and Brown, as their successes or failures could tip the majority in the Senate. If Republicans manage to flip either of these seats, they could solidify their control, especially with anticipated changes in other states.
**Host:** How are the dynamics of the race affected by polling data? You mentioned that internal Democratic polls show a closer race than public polls.
**Sarah Collins:** Yes, internal polling often captures nuances that public polls might miss. While many public polls indicate a tough uphill battle for Tester, Democrats are holding onto hope based on more optimistic internal numbers. This indicates they believe voter sentiment may be shifting closer than anticipated.
**Host:** If Tester were to lose, what implications would that have for the Democratic Party beyond just the Senate majority?
**Sarah Collins:** A loss for Tester would not only jeopardize the Democratic majority but would also symbolize a broader trend in battleground states, signaling to Democrats where they may need to recalibrate their strategies moving forward. It could also complicate presidential transitions if Kamala Harris were to win the presidency.
**Host:** Thank you, Sarah, for your insights! It’s clear that the Montana Senate race is more than just about one seat; it’s about the future of the Senate and the Democratic Party as a whole.
**Sarah Collins:** My pleasure! The coming weeks will be crucial, and it will be interesting to see how the campaigns evolve and what voter turnout looks like.
