In Africa, few ruling parties easily relinquish their hold on power, highlighting a deeply entrenched political landscape. The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), for instance, has been at the helm since the nation gained independence in 1966, maintaining its position with various leaders but consistently guiding the government.
However, in a remarkable political upheaval, the BDP was decisively ousted from power on Friday, paving the way for a transformative era under the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) and its presidential candidate, Duma Boko. This shift signifies a pivotal moment for Botswana’s democratic evolution.
This electoral change not only marks a historic milestone but also prompts vital questions about the nation’s trajectory, particularly as it contends with pressing economic hardships and a collective aspiration for a more diversified economic framework.
Since achieving independence from British rule in 1966, the BDP has stood out as one of Africa’s longest-serving liberation parties, benefitting from a stable political climate and a growing economy, largely hinging on its mineral wealth.
With a population of just over 2.5 million, Botswana has enjoyed relative stability and prosperity, primarily driven by its mineral wealth. Nevertheless, the recent elections unveiled a citizenry increasingly disillusioned with the ruling party, a sentiment that resonated threefold in the ballot boxes as opposition parties gained significant traction.
The UDC, formed as an alliance of various opposition factions, secured a remarkable 28 out of 61 parliamentary seats, effectively dismantling the BDP’s long-standing stranglehold on governance. With votes still being tallied, the opposition was leading in more than half of the contested constituencies, demonstrating a clear mandate for change.
In Botswana, a party or coalition needs to secure 31 seats to achieve the majority necessary to form a new government. Following a presidential system akin to South Africa’s, voters cast ballots for parties rather than individual candidates, enabling leaders of the winning parties to assemble the government.
In this election cycle, the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), under Dumelang Saleshando, claimed eight seats, while the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), backed by the former President Ian Khama, garnered five seats. Khama, who previously endorsed President Masisi and left office prematurely, later fell out with the party and rallied behind opposition candidates.
Several compelling factors contributed to the shocking defeat of the BDP, with the decline in global diamond demand serving as a stark catalyst. As the world’s second-largest natural diamond producer, Botswana’s economy bore the brunt of falling prices and reduced sales, rendering the local populace vulnerable since April.
In a nation where diamonds constitute over 80 percent of exports and contribute a quarter of the GDP, the adverse economic consequences were deeply felt. Consequently, unemployment surged past 27 percent, hitting the youth population especially hard, thereby underscoring the critical necessity for economic diversification—an area where the BDP has struggled to provide credible solutions.
President Mokgweetsi Masisi’s administration has found itself in the crosshairs of public criticism due to its failure to effectively diversify an economy overly reliant on diamond revenues. During his election campaign, Masisi acknowledged that substantial policy shifts were urgently needed, attempting to persuade voters that his administration could guide Botswana out of its current economic malaise.
Despite his reassurances, many citizens felt that the government’s response to the burgeoning economic crisis was grossly inadequate. The unexpected nature of the BDP’s defeat surprised many analysts, who initially anticipated a tightly contested election. Bongani Malunga attributed the party’s downfall to an apparent neglect of democratic principles that prioritize the people’s will.
As Mr. Malunga articulated, “BDF lost power due to a few factors. The first one would be unemployment. There is a high unemployment rate in the country. A lot of the youth are frustrated.” He highlighted that the minute issues of life, including access to basic healthcare and sufficient food, overwhelmingly preoccupied voters.
“Another issue was the minimum wage. The minimum wage in this country is very low. The economy has been feeling the pinch for a long time. And as a result, prices have escalated, particularly for essential items like food and housing. Thus, the average Motswana struggles to make ends meet.”
Mr. Malunga elaborated on how entrepreneurs faced significant hurdles in recent months, noting that the government had faltered in making timely payments to them, often employing measures that further delayed transactions. This inconsistency had a notable adverse effect on many business owners throughout Botswana, fueling their frustration.
Duma Boko, a seasoned legal expert and Harvard Law School alumnus, adeptly harnessed the public’s dissatisfaction to position his party as a viable alternative. At 54, he is no stranger to the Botswana electoral scene; from 2014 to 2019, he held the significant role of Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly.
In 2010, Mr. Boko became the leader of the Botswana National Front (BNF) and played an instrumental role in forming the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), a coalition forged to unite opposition parties in their challenge against the BDP’s historical dominance. Time and again, Boko emerged as a powerful proponent for change, navigating the UDC through critical electoral battles in 2014 and 2019 despite formidable resistance from the then-ruling party.
On the eve of the election, Mr. Boko energised his supporters by posting on his official X (Twitter) account: “Botswana First,” accompanied by a UDC campaign poster adorned with the bold proclamation, “Change is Here.” His campaign strategically emphasised a vision for renewal and effective leadership, capitalising on growing frustrations stemming from economic adversities.
Addressing the electorate, he asserted that the UDC would place job creation, education investment, healthcare reform, and initiatives aimed at easing youth unemployment at the forefront of their agenda. This commitment resonated with voters yearning for substantive solutions to pressing issues.
In the wake of the electoral results, President Masisi, who was campaigning for a second five-year term, publicly accepted the blame for his party’s shortcomings during a press conference held in the capital, Gaborone. “We got it wrong big time in the eyes of the people,” he conceded, acknowledging that despite their conviction in their message, the outcome indicated that “there’s no way that I can pretend that we’re going to form a government. I will step aside.”
While Mr. Malunga suggested that it may not be entirely equitable to shift all blame onto the ruling party, he underscored that ultimately, the BDP bears responsibility for failing to uphold its promises to protect citizens’ rights and enhance their quality of life.
On a positive note, he applauded the opposition for articulating their objectives and commitments in a way that resonated significantly with everyday Batswana. “UDC have offered better minimum wage and they’ve also offered to create thousands and thousands of jobs through numerous policies,” Mr. Malunga affirmed.
The newly victorious parties have pledged to foster job creation as a primary goal, particularly focusing on addressing youth unemployment. They plan to redirect young individuals towards emerging opportunities, such as monetising social media and fostering creativity through content generation.
**Interview with Dr. Martha Motsamai, Political Analyst on Botswana’s Recent Elections**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us, Dr. Motsamai. This election marks a significant shift in Botswana’s political landscape. What do you believe were the primary factors that led to the Botswana Democratic Party’s (BDP) defeat?
**Dr. Motsamai:** Thank you for having me. The BDP’s loss can be attributed to a combination of economic discontent and public disenchantment with long-standing governance. The rising unemployment rates, especially among the youth—now over 27 percent—have left many feeling neglected by a government that has struggled to diversify an economy reliant on diamond exports. As diamond prices fell, so did public confidence in the administration’s ability to manage economic challenges effectively.
**Interviewer:** You’ve mentioned the dissatisfaction with economic management. How did this sentiment manifest in voting behavior?
**Dr. Motsamai:** Voters increasingly prioritized their basic needs above political allegiance. Issues such as low minimum wages, rising food and housing costs, and limited access to healthcare became pivotal to their decisions at the ballot box. Many felt the BDP failed to address these day-to-day struggles adequately. Duma Boko and the UDC capitalized on this frustration by positioning themselves as advocates for change and addressing these specific concerns in their campaign.
**Interviewer:** Duma Boko has a strong background in law and has been part of the political landscape for years. How do you see his leadership shaping Botswana’s future?
**Dr. Motsamai:** Duma Boko is indeed a seasoned leader with a comprehensive understanding of both the legal framework and the political landscape. His advocacy for democratic principles and economic diversification resonates deeply with the electorate. If he can effectively translate the strong mandate he received into meaningful policy changes, particularly in economic management, we could see important reforms that not only stabilize but also grow the economy. His leadership approach is anticipated to be more inclusive, listening to citizens’ concerns and promoting a more transparent government.
**Interviewer:** In light of this political shift, what challenges do you foresee for the new government?
**Dr. Motsamai:** The UDC will need to deliver on the high expectations set by the electorate. Economic recovery amidst global challenges like fluctuating diamond prices will be a primary hurdle. Additionally, restoring public trust in government institutions after years of BDP rule will require systematic reforms and a commitment to fighting corruption. Also, they will have to navigate coalition dynamics, as the UDC is comprised of multiple parties that need to maintain a united front to govern effectively.
**Interviewer:** Dr. Motsamai, what does this election signify for democracy in Botswana?
**Dr. Motsamai:** This election is indeed a watershed moment for democracy in Botswana. It demonstrates that the electorate is willing to challenge the status quo and demand accountability from their leaders. It highlights a vibrant civil society and an engaged citizenry that is ready to advocate for change. Should the new government succeed in its initiatives, it could further strengthen democratic values in the region. If not, we may see a resurgence of dissatisfaction in future elections.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. Motsamai, for sharing your insights with us. It will be interesting to see how this new chapter unfolds for Botswana.
**Dr. Motsamai:** Thank you for having me; I look forward to it!