How a Trump 2.0 administration will handle the world’s conflicts, no one knows for sure.
– The experiences from Trump’s first term were that there was a lot of management and chaos. In many contexts it was the case that the storm raged on the surface, but below water it was mostly as usual, says Paal Sigurd Hilde, professor at the Department of Defense Studies at the Norwegian Defense Academy
He and other researchers in the field believe that American foreign and security policy is fixed – regardless of who moves into the White House in January next year.
The biggest moment of uncertainty is linked to Ukraine and whether the country is pressured into a peace solution they do not want.
Tror Ukraina presses
Trump has said that he will easily find a solution in Ukraine – and that if he is elected, it will happen before he is inaugurated as president.
The war broke out a year after Trump had to move out of the White House and has now lasted two and a half years. The suffering seems to see no end, despite Western countries supplying the Ukrainians with support and weapons.
He has also criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi and called him a sellout because of the support he receives from the United States.
– Trump’s most important means of pressure on Ukraine will be that he can stop the extensive support the US now provides – both in the form of weapons and ammunition, but also intelligence and other things, says Hilde and warns:
– In the worst case scenario, a second term with Trump as president could mean that Ukraine is pressured to enter into an unfavorable peace agreement, or lose American support and thus be in greater danger of losing the war.
The China conflict in focus
Prio director Henrik Urdal also believes that Trump’s attitude towards Ukraine is one issue that could become important in American security and foreign policy if he wins the election.
“Trump has indicated that he can achieve a peace solution within a short time, and the Republicans have been more skeptical than the Democrats about continuing arms support to Ukraine,” writes Urdal in a posts in Panorama News.
Urdal is clear that regardless of which of the two candidates wins the election in the USA on Tuesday 5 November, the USA’s long-term security and foreign policy interest will be directed at the rivalry with China.
And “with an expectation that Europe takes a greater part of the responsibility for its own security”, writes the Prio director.
Change in the world order
The trade conflict between the US and China started with Trump, but Democrat Joe Biden has continued the punitive tariffs and introduced a number of new restrictions aimed at Chinese technology companies.
– If Trump becomes president again, I think it will only be tightened even more, then in all areas, such as tariffs, sanctions, protectionism and subsidies, says Øystein Tunsjø, professor and head of the Asia program at the Department of Defense Studies at the Norwegian Defense College.
Tunsjø also shows that the two countries compete strongly in all areas, including the green shift. For the USA, there is The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and China has its Made in China strategy (MIC 2025).
– I think there will be further subsidization of strategically important industry. And that means that the world order, as it has been for the past 30 years, is going to change dramatically from having faith in market forces and liberalisation, to a “re-globalised” world.
This may mean that one moves production home or to close allies and partner countries in order to make oneself less dependent on China.
I don’t think the policy will change
Tunsjø says that there is little indication that Trump will make radical changes in the foreign policy of the United States and points out that he did not do so during his previous presidency. Much of Trump’s policy has proven to be good strategies, the professor points out.
– He said he was going to tighten up against China, and did so, and it was not a bad strategy. He asked the Europeans to foot more of the bill for their own defense, and that wasn’t a bad strategy either. And then he asked Angela Merkel and Germany to stop importing so much Russian gas, and that turned out to be not so stupid either.
Under Merkel, Germany’s dependence on Russian gas grew. It led to fears of energy shortages and increased electricity prices as Russia cut off large parts of its gas supply to Europe in response to economic sanctions against the country following its invasion of Ukraine.
– In many important questions, he hit the mark quite well, even if he communicated it in a bad way, he says.
He also believes that an eventual new President Trump will have more than enough to do with domestic politics.
– Unlikely with a NATO exit
The three researchers all believe that it is unlikely that Trump will pull the US out of NATO, but Professor Hilde still believes that the unorthodox Republican can take steps that could contribute to weakening the defense alliance.
– However, he can undermine confidence that the US will comply with the collective self-defense obligation in the Atlantic Treaty. If this trust disappears, so will the trust in and interest in NATO in Europe, he says.
Hilde refers to Trump’s previous presidency from 2017 to 2021. In these years, NATO held shorter and toned-down summits, according to Hilde, who explains that it was in order not to give Trump the opportunity to do damage to the alliance.
He points out, however, that weakened trust in the US has already proven to be a driving force in the development of security and defense policy cooperation in the EU.
– A strengthened European cooperation at the expense of NATO is consequently a possible long-term consequence of a new period with Trump.
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**Interview with Paal Sigurd Hilde, Professor at the Norwegian Defense Academy**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Professor Hilde. With the upcoming 2024 election, many are curious about how a potential Trump 2.0 administration might shape U.S. foreign and security policy. What are your thoughts on this?
**Paal Sigurd Hilde:** Thank you for having me. Reflecting on Trump’s previous term, we saw a mix of management and chaos; events were often tumultuous on the surface, but underneath, many traditional structures stayed relatively intact. I believe that whichever candidate comes to power, the overarching principles of American foreign policy will largely remain unchanged.
**Interviewer:** So, it’s fair to say you expect stability in policy despite the candidate?
**Hilde:** Exactly. However, there is significant uncertainty surrounding specific issues, particularly regarding Ukraine. Trump has made bold claims about quickly resolving the conflict there, yet the reality is much more complicated.
**Interviewer:** How do you see the situation in Ukraine evolving under a Trump presidency, especially in light of his criticisms of President Zelenskyy and support for Ukraine?
**Hilde:** Trump’s approach could lead to the U.S. slowing down or even halting support for Ukraine, which is crucial for their defense against Russian aggression. This could force Ukraine into a disadvantageous peace agreement or, worse, lead to significant losses in the war. With Trump suggesting he could “solve” this issue before taking office, it raises concerns about the pressure that might be placed on Ukraine.
**Interviewer:** Beyond Ukraine, what do you think will be the primary focus of U.S. foreign policy regarding China?
**Hilde:** The rivalry with China will remain a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy, no matter who wins the election. Both candidates recognize the significance of this relationship, but Trump might adopt an even more aggressive stance, strengthening tariffs and sanctions against Chinese companies.
**Interviewer:** Some experts suggest that the world order we’ve known is shifting. How do you see this playing out under a potential Trump administration?
**Hilde:** If Trump returns, we may witness a move towards de-globalization, where the U.S. and its allies try to reduce dependence on China. This will not only affect trade but also have implications for technology and green strategy. The competition in these areas is intensifying, and we are likely to see further fiscal support for key industries both in the U.S. and China.
**Interviewer:** Do you believe Trump’s foreign policy will differ significantly from that of President Biden?
**Hilde:** While there may be shifts in rhetoric and emphasis, I don’t anticipate radical changes. Many of the strategies Trump employed previously, such as pressuring allies to contribute more to their own defense, proved effective. His general approach towards China will likely remain an important pillar of his policy given the competitive landscape.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Professor Hilde, for sharing your insights. It’s clear that the stakes are high, and the implications of the election will be felt across the globe.
**Hilde:** My pleasure. This election is pivotal, not just for the U.S. but for international relations as a whole.
