Political chaos looms over Japan after Japan’s ruling party on Sunday (27/10) lost its majority in parliament for the first time in 15 years. It was the worst election result in more than a decade.
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its much smaller coalition partner, Komeito, were only able to win 215 seats, meaning they failed to obtain an absolute majority in the lower house elections. This is less than the 233 seats required to govern.
It threatened the future of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and marked the beginning of a period of political turmoil for the United States’ main ally in Asia. Shigeru Ishiba only took office on October 1, replacing Fumio Kishida who resigned last September.
Trust in the conservative LDP and Japan’s leadership is at an all-time low following a series of corruption scandals involving dozens of party members. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba promised to restore public confidence.
His first task was to call lower house elections a year earlier than expected, so he could use the momentum of his election to garner a public mandate for his party and his party’s control of the government.
But his tenure was troubled from the start, as he reversed his most characteristic policy proposals and struggled to convince the public that he would represent real political change.
“The public expected him to improve the LDP, but gradually they became disappointed with the fact that he became more like the LDP,” said Japanese government expert Izuru Makihara at the University of Tokyo.
Political instability is something that is unusual in Japan, because the LDP has strengthened its power for almost seven decades.
Legislative elections often serve to reassert the party’s dominance, making the LDP’s lead practically insurmountable to historically weak opposition parties.
The last time the LDP-Komeito coalition government lost its majority was in 2009, when the Democratic Party of Japan took power. After a disappointing term in office, the LDP regained its majority in 2012 and held it until Sunday’s election.
An LDP defeat would create greater uncertainty over the leadership of the world’s fourth-largest economy amid rising domestic prices and rising tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.
Kishida has transformed Japan’s role in the international community, and Ishiba is also expected to strengthen his country’s security ties with Washington to counter China.
Japanese political expert who runs political risk advisory firm Japan Foresight, Tobias Harris, said political instability could lead to certain shifts in Japan’s foreign policy.
“It may be difficult for the next president of the US or Japan’s Asian neighbors to establish serious diplomatic ties with Ishiba or his successor until the dust settles in Tokyo,” Harris wrote in a post-election analysis.
The LDP won 191 seats in Sunday’s election, down from a majority of 247 seats in the House of Representatives, which has 465 members.
His coalition partner, Komeito, won 24 seats, down from 32, based on election results. The LDP-Komeito coalition government won a total of 215 seats, short of the 233 seats needed to win an absolute majority.
“We are in a very difficult situation. We are aware that we are being judged very harshly. “We have to accept it with humility and seriousness,” said Ishiba when the vote count results were being recapped. (Thewashintongpost/Fer/P-3)
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**Interview with Political Expert Izuru Makihara on Japan’s Political Turmoil**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Izuru. With the recent elections resulting in the LDP losing its majority for the first time in 15 years, what implications do you see for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s leadership?
**Izuru Makihara:** Thank you for having me. The implications are quite serious for Ishiba. Losing the majority means he must navigate a fragmented parliament, which could limit his ability to push through reforms and respond adequately to the public’s discontent. His leadership is already threatened by a lack of trust and the shadow of past corruption scandals within the LDP.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned public discontent. Can you elaborate on the factors contributing to this distrust in the LDP?
**Izuru Makihara:** Certainly. The LDP has faced multiple corruption scandals, which have drastically eroded public confidence. Ishiba promised change, but his recent actions suggest a return to traditional LDP politics rather than the reformative approach that many hoped for. This shift has disappointed voters who sought genuine political change.
**Interviewer:** How does this political chaos differ from Japan’s historical stability?
**Izuru Makihara:** Japan’s political landscape has typically been stable, dominated by the LDP for almost seven decades. The current situation is unusual; losing a majority signifies a significant shift. Prior elections served to reinforce LDP dominance, making the current disarray particularly notable.
**Interviewer:** What are the possible future scenarios for Ishiba’s government?
**Izuru Makihara:** There are a few scenarios. Ishiba could attempt to form coalitions with smaller parties to navigate his legislative agenda, but that might not be sustainable if public support continues to wane. Alternatively, this political turmoil could lead to new elections if a viable opposition emerges, or internal shifts within the LDP could push for a new leader who might resonate better with the electorate.
**Interviewer:** Thank you for your insights, Izuru. It will be interesting to observe how this unfolds in the coming months.
**Izuru Makihara:** Thank you. It’s certainly a pivotal moment for Japan, and the global implications are also significant, considering Japan’s role as a primary ally in Asia.