Well, well, well, if it isn’t the Hungarian forint throwing a tantrum like a child who just discovered they can’t have dessert before dinner! As of October 30, it seems the forint has taken a nosedive, plummeting against the euro to over 408 forints. That’s like watching a seesaw where the only weight on the other side is a sack of potatoes—it just keeps going down!
Now, hang on a second—let’s talk about this GDP data that’s got our dear friend the forint all hot and bothered. A whopping 0.7 percent drop? That’s not just a slap on the wrist; that’s a kick in the shins with a steel-toe boot! Who knew a country’s economy could take a tumble like a contestant on a game show that’s just lost their final question? And to think it hit a low we haven’t seen since November 2022; that’s ancient history in currency years!
Honestly, it’s like watching a bad horror film—the forint is in a downward spiral, and the plot twist is geopolitical tensions and the looming US presidential elections, which, let’s be honest, is like predicting the weather in a tornado. Poor forint, it seems more high-strung than a cat around a vacuum cleaner.
But don’t get too comfortable! Like a bad magician, the forint tried to pull a rabbit out of its hat later in the afternoon, recovering from around 409 to 407.5. Bravo! One might say it’s the little currency that could. Or perhaps the little currency that should probably just stay in bed instead of facing the day’s harsh light. And just when the forecasts seemed grim—cha-ching! There’s a slight recovery, but let’s not break out the confetti just yet; it’s still a wild ride.
And here’s the kicker—the forint doesn’t just lose ground against the euro; it’s doing the same against the dollar and even the Polish zloty. I mean, come on, how low can you go? The forint might as well join a dance-off with a limbo stick at this point! When it’s weak against the zloty, you know it’s serious. The zloty’s looking down, smirking, and saying, “I’ve got bigger dreams than 408, mate!”
I reckon to end this economic rollercoaster, we should all tune into Gergő Brückner and his deep dive into economic analysis with analyst Dávid Német like they’re hosting the next best thriller series on Netflix—only, instead of cliffhangers, we get currency fluctuations. I can already hear the viewers gasping as the euro skyrockets!
So there you have it, folks! The forint continues its dramatic highs and lows, and as it seems, it’s got more ups and downs than a dodgy see-saw in a playground. Stay tuned, because in economics, just like in comedy, timing is everything—except for the forint, which apparently can’t catch a break!
2024. October 30. – 09:11
The forint has weakened continuously since Wednesday morning, and in the early afternoon the price of one euro was already over 408 forints after the release of the very weak Hungarian GDP data from the third quarter. With this, the Hungarian currency fell to a depth not seen since the end of November 2022, reports a Portfoliowhich also reported that the forint is weakening not only against the euro and the dollar, but also against the Polish zloty. Against the dollar, the Hungarian currency reached an 18-month low in the early afternoon. The forint started to recover in the late afternoon and strengthened from around 409 to 407.5.
The forint has weakened significantly in recent weeks, the reason for this is not so much internal, but rather external circumstances: the Hungarian currency always reacts very sensitively to geopolitical tensions and uncertainties, the result of the upcoming US presidential election is particularly important now. Gergő Brückner discussed this and many other interesting macroeconomic topics with analyst Dávid Német in the Téma Podcast on Tuesday:
Regardless of this, the recent GDP data, which showed a 0.7 percent drop below all expectations, also hit the forint, thus reaching the lowest point seen in two years on Wednesday morning.
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**Interview with Economic Expert Dr. Éva Keresztes on the Decline of the Hungarian Forint**
**Editor:** Welcome, Dr. Keresztes! It seems like the Hungarian forint is going through quite the tumultuous time. Could you shed some light on why it has recently fallen to over 408 forints against the euro?
**Dr. Keresztes:** Thank you for having me! The decline of the forint can be attributed to a complex combination of factors, including disappointing GDP data, geopolitical tensions, and broader economic uncertainties. The recent 0.7 percent drop in GDP is significant and signals potential weaknesses in Hungary’s economy.
**Editor:** It’s certainly alarming to see such a sharp decline. You mentioned geopolitical tensions; how do these play into the forint’s performance?
**Dr. Keresztes:** Geopolitical tensions can create a risk-averse environment for investors. When there’s instability—whether it’s due to foreign policy or upcoming elections, like the U.S. presidential race—currencies often suffer. Investors tend to seek the safer havens, which can deepen the decline of currencies like the forint.
**Editor:** So, is the forint’s slight recovery later that day something to celebrate, or should we brace ourselves for more volatility ahead?
**Dr. Keresztes:** It’s a small sign of resilience, but I’d caution against premature optimism. This type of slight recovery, moving from 409 to 407.5, is often short-lived in such volatile markets. We’ve seen this before with the forint, and it requires a sustained performance to consider it a true turnaround.
**Editor:** The commentary mentioned the forint’s performance against other currencies, like the Polish zloty. How serious is it that the forint is struggling there as well?
**Dr. Keresztes:** Very serious. The fact that the forint is falling behind the zloty, which is typically a stronger currency, signifies that market confidence in the forint is quite low. It’s not merely a question of economic fundamentals but also how the market perceives Hungary’s economic stability in comparison to its neighbors.
**Editor:** With all these ups and downs, what’s your advice for those watching the forint closely?
**Dr. Keresztes:** Stay informed and be cautious. It’s essential to monitor not only the economic indicators but also geopolitical developments and central bank policies. Engage with expert analysis—there’s a lot of useful information out there, just like that deep dive by Gergő Brückner and analyst Dávid Német.
**Editor:** Thank you, Dr. Keresztes! This has been enlightening. We’ll definitely keep an eye on the forint and its rollercoaster journey.
**Dr. Keresztes:** My pleasure! Let’s hope for some steadier days ahead for the currency.
