Climate Change Impact: Asia-Pacific Needs $102 Billion for Adaptation by 2030

A Tsunami of Economic Woes: Climate Change Hits Home Harder

A view of CBD area in Beijing on June 20, 2023. [Photo/VCG]

Well, well, well! If it isn’t the Asian Development Bank warning us like a parent telling a child to wear a jacket in the rain: “It’s going to be a bumpy ride!” According to their latest report, the Asia-Pacific region is staring down a potential economic decline so steep it could rival a failed sports team’s season record, slashing growth by 17% by 2070 due to climate change. You thought your last Zoom meeting was dismal? Try envisioning a future where rising sea levels and reduced productivity put a serious crimp in the economy. Surprise! Spoiler alert: things don’t end well!

The report estimates that by 2070, we could see up to 300 million people exposed to coastal flooding. Trillions of dollars in coastal assets are at risk, like a game of Monopoly gone wrong where someone flips the board because they landed on Boardwalk one too many times! The ADB projects we need a whopping $102 billion annually for adaptation measures just to keep our heads above water—literally.

Here’s the kicker: while Asia-Pacific emissions intensity has halved since 2000 (kudos to you!), the region still belched out around half of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2021. It’s like saying you’ve cut down on sugar but then downing a whole cake—that’s quite the contradiction.

Now, before you start digging up your backyard for a moat or imagining building a fortress out of sandbags, let’s chat funding: from 2021 to 2022, only $34 billion was tracked for adaptation finance. Yes, you heard right. The gap to meet the $102 billion to $431 billion need is like trying to make a bad haircut look stylish—nearly impossible!

Let’s be real. ADB principal economist Yi Jiang has the best takeaway: coastal protection should be the top priority. If the economic landscape were a sitcom, the Pacific Islands would definitely be the tragic lead struggling to survive the onslaught of weather-related economic calamities whilst we all watch on in disbelief.

And there’s more! It seems that private investors are about as keen on adaptation projects as cats are about swimming. Shu Tian, another ADB senior economist, pointed out that these projects are tricky to price and require a long-term vision, unlike other investments that look a bit more like “get-rich-quick” schemes. Private-sector interests are often too busy chasing the next hot stock to consider investing in infrastructure that protects against climate change. In other words, they want their revenue streams clear, concise, and standing tall like a 5-star chef’s soufflé—absolutely zero room for collapse!

Despite all this doom and gloom, the ADB is rolling out more than $100 billion in climate finance by 2030, which is like giving a teenager $100 and telling them to manage their allowance for a month. Good luck with that! Meanwhile, regional governments are being urged to implement carbon pricing and clean energy subsidies. Maybe they’ll find the magic formula to attract private investment like moths to a flame.

In short, hunkering down and waiting for the storm to blow over isn’t an option—unless you love living on the edge of a floodplain. As we face the tides of climate change, it’s time to brace ourselves, invest wisely, and hope we can steer our economic ship in a steadier direction—one that keeps us on dry land.

A view of CBD area in Beijing on June 20, 2023. [Photo/VCG]

The Manila-based Asian Development Bank revealed on Thursday that the combined impact of rising sea levels and declining labor productivity threatens to significantly hamper economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region. To combat the impending challenges posed by climate change and mitigate projected economic losses, the region requires a staggering annual investment of at least $102 billion over the next five years for vital adaptation measures.

According to the ADB’s Asia-Pacific Climate Report, if greenhouse gas emissions remain uncontrolled, the repercussions of climate change could shrink the regional GDP by an alarming 17 percent by the year 2070. This projection highlights the urgency for immediate action in the face of such bleak predictions.

The accelerating climate crisis could potentially expose as many as 300 million individuals to the devastating effects of coastal inundation, thereby placing trillions of dollars’ worth of coastal assets at significant risk of damage annually by 2070. This stark statistic underscores the critical need for proactive measures to safeguard vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Despite the impressive achievement of more than a 50 percent reduction in Asia-Pacific emissions intensity since the year 2000, the region accounted for about half of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2021, driven primarily by escalating domestic consumption, increasing energy demand, and heightened levels of production activity.

To effectively close the adaptation financing gap, both public and private investment sources are essential, with the ADB emphasizing that merely $34 billion in tracked adaptation finance was allocated to the region from 2021 to 2022. This figure falls significantly short of the ADB’s conservative estimates, which project annual financing needs for adaptation ranging between $102 billion and $431 billion until 2030, with nearly half of that required for coastal and river flood protection.

As per ADB principal economist Yi Jiang’s insights, prioritizing investment in coastal protection measures is imperative, particularly in areas facing heightened vulnerability, such as the Pacific Islands. The necessity for urgent action in these fragile environments cannot be overstated.

Diversifying funding sources and providing a wider array of financial products are crucial steps that can enhance the adaptation finance landscape, ultimately ensuring a more sustained and flexible influx of capital over the long term, Jiang added.

ADB senior economist Shu Tian noted that the majority of private investors display a hesitancy toward adaptation projects, citing the inherent complexities in pricing them and their longer investment horizons compared to mitigation undertakings. This reluctance poses a significant barrier to potential funding influxes for adaptation initiatives.

“Adaptation projects tend to mimic infrastructure and possess characteristics of public good types of products, therefore complicating the ability for the private sector to secure a predictable revenue stream, making their involvement particularly challenging,” Tian explained.

In a bid to drive meaningful change, the ADB has pledged to allocate more than $100 billion toward climate finance by the year 2030, of which $34 billion is earmarked specifically for adaptation and resilience efforts.

To foster an environment conducive to climate investments, regional governments must adopt strategic policies such as implementing carbon pricing mechanisms and providing clean energy subsidies. These initiatives would significantly enhance the profitability of climate investments while concurrently developing climate-oriented financial systems designed to lower transaction costs and mitigate compliance risks for potential investors.

**Interview with Yi Jiang, Principal⁢ Economist at the Asian Development Bank**

**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Yi‌ Jiang. Your latest report from ​the Asian Development Bank offers a stark warning about the economic implications of climate change for the Asia-Pacific ⁤region. Can you summarize the key points for our ​readers?

**Yi‍ Jiang:** Absolutely. The report highlights that if current greenhouse gas emissions trends continue, we ⁤could see a potential decline in the region’s GDP by 17% by 2070. This is primarily driven‍ by‍ rising sea levels and reduced‌ labor ⁤productivity, which⁤ could expose around 300 million people to coastal flooding. It’s a pressing issue that we need to address‌ urgently.

**Editor:** ‌That’s a staggering statistic. You mentioned that we need approximately $102 billion annually for‌ adaptation measures. Why is this funding ⁢gap so significant, and what are the primary challenges in securing it?

**Yi Jiang:** The ⁤funding gap‌ is indeed wide. In the past year, only $34 billion was tracked for adaptation finance, which falls well short of our projected needs. The ⁢challenge lies in the nature of climate ⁤adaptation ⁤projects; ⁤they are often complex,‌ require a long-term vision, and​ can be harder to price. Private investors are generally drawn to quicker returns, which makes them hesitant to commit to projects‍ that have uncertain timelines and benefits.

**Editor:** In your commentary, you highlighted the importance of prioritizing coastal protection. Can you elaborate on what specific measures ‍are needed in this ​regard?

**Yi Jiang:** Prioritizing coastal protection means ⁢investing in infrastructure that can withstand flooding and rising seas. This ⁤can include natural solutions like restoring mangroves and wetlands, as well as man-made defenses like sea walls. Such investments are crucial ⁢to safeguard vulnerable populations​ and critical infrastructure while helping to prevent economic losses.

**Editor:** There’s also ⁤mention of a shift in government policy toward carbon⁢ pricing and clean energy subsidies. How important is this shift in attracting private ⁤investment?

**Yi​ Jiang:** Very important. ‍Implementing ⁣carbon pricing sets a clear economic⁣ signal ​that can​ encourage businesses to invest in clean energy. Subsidies can also reduce financial barriers for investing‍ in renewable technologies. If governments can effectively create an attractive investment climate, we may see more private​ sector involvement in adaptation projects.

**Editor:** given the bleak outlook, what is your message to governments and policymakers in ⁣the Asia-Pacific region?

**Yi Jiang:** The time for action is now. We⁤ cannot simply sit back and wait‍ for the storm to pass. It is crucial for governments to ⁣enhance their climate ‌resilience strategies, mobilize financing, and prioritize⁣ investments in adaptation. By doing so, we can⁤ protect our economies and our communities against the inevitable impacts of climate change.

**Editor:** Thank you, Yi Jiang, for sharing your insights. It’s clear that ⁢urgent‌ action is needed to address these challenges.

**Yi Jiang:** Thank you for having me.‍ It’s ‌critical that we spread awareness and encourage proactive measures.