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From /apa, October 29, 2024, 12:35 p.m
Image: AFP
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Image: AFP
WASHINGTON. The election campaign in the United States of America is entering its final phase.
Will Kamala Harris become the first woman president in US history? Or will Donald Trump return? According to surveys, the outcome of the US election is closer than it has been for a long time. The 60-year-old Democrat is running as vice presidential candidate with Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota. The 78-year-old Republican chose JD Vance, a young senator from Ohio, as his running mate.
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Around 155 million people cast their votes four years ago. 81 million of these went to Joe Biden, more than ever before for a candidate. But what was really crucial was just 43,000 people in three states. This is due to the complicated electoral system. Here are the most important questions and answers.
On November 5th, US citizens will decide who will lead the world’s most powerful democracy for four years starting in January. In addition to the presidential election, thousands of other decisions are being made everywhere. Particularly important is the US Congress with the Senate and House of Representatives – the two chambers that decide on laws in the USA. A third of the 100 senators are newly elected and their term of office is six years. The 435 representatives in the House of Representatives are only appointed for two years; they are completely re-elected. In addition, there are decisions made by the governors and congresses of many individual states, city parliaments, school boards, public prosecutors or referendums on abortions, the question of whether Maine will get a new flag or whether fur will be banned in Denver in the future.
There are historical reasons for this: the harvest should be over, believers should not be expected to vote on Sunday, and in rural areas they should not even have to make the sometimes arduous journey to the polling station, but should only set off to do so on Monday. In 1845, Congress passed a law designating the “Tuesday after the first Monday in November” as election day.
In principle, as in Germany, all citizens aged 18 and over are allowed to vote. That was around 232 million people in the 2020 election. Because there is no general reporting requirement in the USA, those wishing to vote must be entered into a register. They also indicate a general party preference and whether they want to register as a “Democrat,” “Republican,” or “Independent.” This does not commit you to actually voting in the voting booth, but registration usually determines that you can only take part in the primaries for that party.
In addition, more than five million people in the United States were disenfranchised because they were in prison – in the vast majority of states, it is not regained even after release. It hits the mark disproportionately often. They tend to vote for Democratic candidates more often, so Republicans tend to fight changes to prison rules.
Because of these restrictions, it is difficult to accurately quantify the number of eligible voters in the United States. According to the US Census Bureau, around 155 million Americans voted in the 2020 election. Measured against the population of voting age, this corresponded to a voter turnout of around 66.8 percent – a record high.
The voters do not decide directly about the president, but rather they decide who the electors in their respective state should vote for. These delegates will be sent to formally vote on the president in December. As a general rule, if a candidate is ahead by even one vote in a state, he gets all the voters in that state – except in Nebraska and Maine, all delegates in a state vote as a block.
In the USA, as in many other countries, there are strong geographical and demographic differences in voting behavior: city dwellers and people on the east and west coasts vote more often for Democrats. Voters in more rural areas and southeastern states are more likely to vote Republican. Based on historical experience, it is already certain who will win in over 40 states. The election campaign is focused on seven states in the middle that have in the past voted for one party and sometimes for the other. In the USA they are called “swing states” or “battleground states”. In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the north and in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina in the south, every vote counts. In surveys, the two candidates in all of these states are currently at most around two percentage points apart.
Because of the many time zones in the USA, there is no uniform closing of polling stations. Instead, the election ends first in the states in the east, followed by Hawaii. Unlike in Germany, there is no forecast when the polling stations close and no projections during the counting. However, if historical results and pre-election polls indicate that a candidate’s victory in a state can hardly be taken away, then the major television networks proclaim a winner. These statements are considered very reliable; the broadcasters maintain their own “decision-making tables” with experts who have had decades of experience.
Most observers assume that there will be no winner on Tuesday evening, but it is not impossible. In 2020, Joe Biden was declared the winner on the Saturday morning after the election. Unlike in Germany, depending on the federal state, there are often very different counting modalities with computers or just on paper. In very close calls, most states require a manual recount.
It’s really very unclear. In national polls, Kamala Harris has a minimal lead, but both are tied in the crucial swing states. Donald Trump has made up a little ground in the last few weeks.
Generally more reliable than their reputation. But it is difficult to predict the exact composition of the electorate. In 2020, follow-up surveys revealed that around 20 percent of voters had not voted four years previously. This proportion was similarly high in previous years. Trump was underestimated in 2016 and 2020, the Democrats have done significantly better in the midterm elections and in unscheduled elections since 2022 than in the 2020 election. This is because the nationwide right to legal abortion was removed in the USA. The big question is whether Trump or Harris’ streak will continue in 2024.
There is a fear that Trump and Republicans will again try to cast doubt on the election results if Harris wins. In some states, votes cast in person are announced first on Election Day, followed by votes received by mail or in person in the days before the election. Democrats in particular vote more often in advance, which initially makes the Republicans look better and over time adds more votes for the Democrats. Trump therefore claimed on election night in 2020 that he was unassailably ahead and had won, even though not all the votes had been counted yet. Almost all observers think it is certain that he will try to do the same this year.
After certification in the states and possible hand recounts, the electors will meet in Washington on December 17th to vote. In January, the result will be certified again in the Senate, with the Vice President as chairman of the meeting. This meeting led to the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021 because Trump’s then deputy Mike Pence wanted to recognize the election. Trump incited a mob and hundreds of demonstrators broke into the Parliament building, some chanting “Hang Mike Pence!” This time, at the beginning of January 2025, Harris will preside over this session as the incumbent vice president.
