As the world grapples with an alarming surge in climate-induced disasters and greenhouse gas emissions soaring to unprecedented levels, the upcoming UN climate summit (COP29) is poised to be a critical platform for enhancing global climate action.
Scheduled to unfold in Baku, Azerbaijan from November 11 to November 22, 2024, this summit will center predominantly around the urgent need to mobilize increased and more effective climate financing for nations and communities that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts. Additionally, it presents a pivotal moment for global leaders to reaffirm their dedication to strengthening national climate commitments and to honor previous commitments made during prior negotiations.
This article delves into what is at stake during the forthcoming COP29 discussions and outlines the crucial actions that must be taken in Baku to foster significant progress across vital areas:
Delivering a New Climate Finance Goal
For the past three years, nations have engaged in extensive technical discussions aimed at finalizing the New Climate Finance Goal (NCQG). However, pivotal questions regarding both the goal’s financial scope and framework remain unresolved. In Baku, negotiators and political leaders will bear the responsibility of reaching a decisive agreement.
A panel of WRI and external experts is prepared to discuss actionable approaches for facilitating an ambitious climate finance goal that genuinely addresses the needs of developing countries.
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A significant resolution will involve determining the primary financial target for the NCQG. Various countries and organizations have proposed annual climate finance goals ranging from billions to trillions of dollars. It appears increasingly likely that the final goal will feature multiple benchmarks reflective of various financing flows, with distinctions between public and private funding. Crucial aspects of the negotiations will include the identification of funding countries, the prioritization of specific financial instruments like grants or concessional loans, and the requirements for transparency in reporting.
While the NCQG is not designed to resolve all climate finance dilemmas, it is an essential element in the broader narrative. The outcomes of COP29 will provide an avenue to establish a robust new finance target that enables nations to meet and expand their climate ambitions in the years ahead. Additionally, the conclusions drawn at the summit can urge reforms across all stakeholders in the climate finance landscape—multilateral development banks and other entities—aimed at amplifying overall climate finance, unlocking private investment, introducing innovative funding sources, and ensuring equitable support for low-carbon transitions.
Showcasing More Ambitious National Climate Commitments
Countries are expected to announce updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in 2025, forming the bedrock of global efforts to combat climate change under the Paris Agreement. Major emitters, such as Brazil (the host for the upcoming UN climate summit), the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates, have signaled their intention to unveil new climate commitments at this year’s COP. By releasing stronger, more ambitious pledges, these nations could set a challenging benchmark for the current round of NDCs, prompting other countries to enhance their commitments.
These next-generation NDCs should encompass new economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets for 2035 and more stringent objectives for 2030, collectively aligning with the global goal to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). These urgent benchmarks are essential; if emissions are not significantly curtailed by 2030, it will unlikely be feasible to recover sufficiently by 2035 to cap warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, thereby avoiding increasingly dire climate repercussions. Near-term targets must establish credible pathways for nations to achieve their net-zero objectives by mid-century or thereabouts.
Committing More Funding for Loss and Damage
The climate crisis has intensified to a point where certain impacts have surpassed the limits of human adaptability, leading to devastating losses of life and livelihoods due to extreme weather events like floods and wildfires, as well as the erosion of coastal heritage sites exacerbated by rising sea levels. This phenomenon is classified as “loss and damage” within UN climate negotiations.
On the opening day of COP28, the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) was initiated to allocate financial resources to developing nations facing these critical challenges. Subsequently, the World Bank confirmed its role as trustee, while the Philippines was designated as the host country for the Fund’s governing board; Ibrahima Cheikh Diong was appointed as the inaugural Executive Director. Current efforts are focused on establishing a resource mobilization plan, which is anticipated to be implemented by 2025.
Enhancing Adaptation Finance and the Global Goal on Adaptation
During COP29, nations must prioritize addressing the significant adaptation finance gap, currently estimated at an alarming $194–$366 billion annually and rising. In 2021, countries committed to doubling adaptation finance by 2025 under the Glasgow Climate Pact. Developed nations are preparing to share a report on their progress in this regard by COP29, as emphasized in last year’s Global Stocktake outcome. Negotiators should also advocate for resilience initiatives in developing countries, ensuring that the NCQG equitably prioritizes adaptation funding alongside mitigation efforts while also recognizing the necessity for adaptation finance to be offered with more flexible and low-interest conditions.
Another critical focus during Baku will be strengthening the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), a collective commitment designed to accelerate adaptation actions across all countries. At COP28, a framework for the GGA was adopted, delineating targets to be met by 2030 and initiating a two-year work program aimed at defining how adaptation efforts will be monitored. At COP29, negotiators will strive to agree on a streamlined set of indicators that can effectively gauge progress and track financial flows at both national and local levels.
Leveraging Carbon Markets to Drive Climate Action
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement enables countries to engage in carbon credit trading to fulfill their national climate objectives. For instance, a nation abundant in tropical rainforests could sell credits to generate funds for preserving its forests, with purchasing countries able to count the corresponding emissions reductions toward their own NDCs. Key regulatory frameworks governing the implementation of these carbon markets must be finalized before trading proceeds, which negotiators will prioritize in Baku. Proper regulation is vital to guarantee that international carbon markets under Article 6 adhere to environmental standards and do not compromise global emission reduction efforts.
Since failing to reach comprehensive agreements on Article 6 rules at COP28, there has been notable progress on common ground. The Supervisory Body for the newly branded Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) has recently established technical standards related to methodology requirements and removals, which underpin carbon crediting practices. Additionally, it has been resolved that all projects undergoing the crediting mechanism must conform to environmental and human rights safeguards.
Nonetheless, several technical yet critical issues require resolution in Baku, including:
- whether the Supervisory Body’s approach to standard-setting will proceed;
- how to manage the authorization of carbon credits, including the potential for countries to revoke previously authorized credits;
- whether credits must undergo a technical review process prior to utilization;
- and the feasibility for developing nations with limited resources to access the international trading registry for credit transactions.
Boosting Transparency Around National Climate Action
COP29 will mark a significant milestone in implementing the enhanced transparency framework of the Paris Agreement, requiring countries to present their first biennial transparency reports (BTRs) by year-end. These reports will encompass comprehensive insights into how nations are confronting climate change, showcasing their GHG emissions reduction strategies, adaptation projects, and the financial support they have accessed or require. This inaugural series of reports will also provide valuable data on countries’ progress toward their 2025 and 2030 NDC targets, serving as an essential resource for future NDC planning and decision-making.
Compiling these biennial transparency reports is a complex and demanding process, particularly for developing nations that are less experienced with international climate reporting and will therefore need support for capacity building. Acknowledging these obstacles, the Azerbaijani presidency has launched the Baku Global Climate Transparency Platform, intended to highlight the significance of reporting standards and the value of transparency, while hosting regional workshops to bolster reporting efforts.
Demonstrating Progress Toward Collective Climate Commitments
Beyond formal negotiations, COPs serve as a venue for governments, private sectors, and cities to jointly commit to collaborative initiatives that advance climate action. In recent years, the volume of cooperative initiatives has surged, yielding critical outcomes from previous summits, such as commitments to enhance renewable energy, phase down fossil fuel use, encourage urban climate actions, green the finance sector, and halt deforestation.
While these pledges signify heightened ambition, WRI research reveals that most initiatives lack mechanisms for tracking transparency and accountability regarding progress made by governments and other stakeholders. COP29 serves as an invaluable opportunity for these entities to showcase tangible progress against existing commitments. For current initiatives, this involves publicizing advancements through the UNFCCC’s Global Climate Action Portal or by releasing progress reports, to provide insights into the role that cooperative efforts can fulfill in driving ambitious climate actions. Governments engaged in various initiatives should contemplate integrating their contributions in their NDCs. Furthermore, new initiatives introduced at COP29 should encompass comprehensive operational plans that facilitate transparency in future advancements.
COP29: Unlocking Climate Action for All
COP29 signifies an exceptional opportunity to amplify global climate ambitions significantly. A successful financial outcome in Baku will empower all nations—particularly the most disadvantaged and vulnerable—to secure the necessary resources for pursuing low-carbon development, supporting local communities and workers, and safeguarding against escalating climate threats. To achieve this outcome, it must be complemented by clear supportive actions from other international bodies, including the G20 and multilateral development banks. Both public and private finance, alongside domestic and international funding mechanisms, must function cohesively as a system to facilitate transformative change.
As nations reassess their climate commitments, COP29 also presents a pivotal moment for major emitting countries to exemplify strengthened leadership by proposing more ambitious climate agendas and recommitting to earlier pledges. Developed countries should lead by example with new and updated NDCs that delineate a clear trajectory toward low-carbon, climate-resilient, nature-positive, and inclusive economies.
Conclusively, a robust outcome in Baku has the potential to pave the way for a safer, more equitable, and prosperous future for all humanity.