Georgia’s Political Crossroads: A Comedy of Errors?
By Olga Ivshina | Tbilisi | October 27, 2024
Well, here we are again. Georgia’s parliamentary elections have just concluded, and guess what? The results are causing more drama than a soap opera caught in a love triangle. The ruling Georgian Dream party is claiming victory, while the opposition is throwing a tantrum, refusing to acknowledge the outcome, and planning protests like it’s 2003 all over again. How exciting!
Now, let’s break this down – it seems like the Georgian Dream party might just be the political equivalent of that one guy at a party who insists on playing all the music while pointing out how much everyone loves his playlist. And yet, if we’re to believe some of the polls, at least 40% of voters sided with him. Surprise! Democracy in action, or maybe not. The BBC explains it all with the usual flair of a well-educated magician – “Look over here while we pull this confusion out of our hats!”
Playing on Contradictions
For the first time in 150 years – or was it 150 deputies? – Georgia introduced a fully proportional voting system. That’s like setting a buffet and telling guests they can only eat one dish. The creation of voting blocs was forbidden, leaving the opposition parties to squabble among themselves like children fighting over the last cookie. Innovatively chaotic, wouldn’t you say?
Now, if you’re keeping count, three separate opposition alliances and one rebellious party stumbled to the polls like a bunch of superheroes without a united front. Spoiler alert: there was no coalition majority in sight. A real opportunity wasted, much like the last slice of pizza at a party: everyone wanted it, but no one could figure out who should take the first bite. And while the youth of Georgia held the key to the future, they didn’t seem keen on associating with any one party. It’s almost like they were looking for a brand they trust without wanting to commit fully. Understanding, yet frustrating!
Convincing Victory or Clever Fraud?
Preliminary reports have Georgian Dream strutting around with an impressive 54% of the vote, as if they didn’t have to look over their shoulders for the opposition. However, not everyone is ready to hang the “Mission Accomplished” banner just yet. The flavours of accusation are coming from the opposition who are insisting that something didn’t quite add up. They’ve brought in the “My Voice” observation mission, which sounds more like a singing competition than a watchdog group. Apparently, it recorded over 200 violations, which could fill a season of any good investigative series.
Ah, the drama! Things have escalated to ballot stuffing and, dare I say, identity card shenanigans. That’s right, folks – it’s not a real election until someone’s identity is borrowed, and a few scrappy journalists get the boot. Remember the last elections? Well, they would have been proud.
What is the Reason for the Popularity of Georgian Dream?
Despite the opposition’s stirring rhetoric, Georgian Dream has managed to resonate with a large section of society. How? By expertly playing on conservatism like a well-rehearsed piano concerto. They’ve wrapped themselves in the blanket of protection against “Western propaganda,” reassuring the fearful folks that their values will be maintained. Because nothing says “you’re safe” like fearmongering about enemy agents and bombs— a fantastic opening act at any political rally!
Amidst geopolitical tensions, Georgian Dream has poised itself as the calm amidst the storm. They’re promising union with Europe while keeping a safe distance from Moscow. Remember folks, when things get heated, make sure to keep your options open so that everyone is confused – progress, right?
Will the Opposition Turn the Situation in Their Favor?
In classic “who-done-it” style, the opposition seems dazed and confused about their next move. Between exit polls celebrating victory and official results hitting like a wet fish, they find themselves pondering over how to rally their base. The mood swings are palpable – from euphoria to the depths of despair quicker than a reality TV contestant after being voted off the island.
Political scientists are already predicting future protests to be significantly less… impactful than those in 2003. With no single strong leader out front, it’s like the cast of “The Avengers” got tangled in each other’s capes. As of now, the strongest message seems to be introspective meetings and spirited discussions on strategy rather than vigorous action.
About the article
- Author, Olga Ivshina
- Place of work, Tbilisi
-
October 27, 2024
Following the results of the parliamentary elections, Georgia is split. The country’s Central Election Commission previously gave victory to the ruling Georgian Dream party, but the opposition refuses to recognize these results and announces protests. However, even polls by opposition TV channels showed that at least 40% of voters voted for the Georgian Dream. The BBC explains why, after almost 20 years of moving towards Europe and the West, Georgia once again finds itself at a political crossroads.
Playing on contradictions
This year, for the first time, 150 deputies of the Georgian parliament were elected not according to a mixed system, as before, but according to a fully proportional system.
The creation of voting blocs in these elections is prohibited – this played into the hands of the Georgian Dream, which has been ruling for 12 years. The opposition parties had the opportunity to come to an agreement and act as a single list, but due to a series of disagreements on domestic policy issues, they were unable to do this.
As a result, as many as three different opposition alliances and one more party went to the polls, advocating speedy integration with Europe and the West. They hoped that in total they would be able to gain more than the ruling party. And then – to form a coalition majority in parliament.
But Georgian Dream skillfully exploited the lack of unity of the opposition, trying to discredit one opponent after another in its speeches.
“The main hope and salvation of the opposition in these elections could be the youth of Georgia. The absolute majority of young people support Georgia’s European course, but they do not necessarily associate themselves with any particular party. And this was the problem,” explains Georgiy Badridze.
He worked as a diplomat for more than 20 years, rising to the rank of ambassador. And now he works as an analyst at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
Play video, “Election results in Georgia. BBC special video report”, Duration 17.4817:48 Video caption, Election results in Georgia. BBC video special report
“When the opposition refused to unite under a single number, it actually refused to make these elections a referendum for or against the European future of the country. And so they lost some of the votes – especially that segment of Georgian society that would not want to affiliate itself with any one specific party,” adds Badridze.
Opposition parties also failed to clearly formulate a vision of Georgian policy on issues not related to accession to the European Union, notes expert on international and strategic issues Vano Machavariani.
According to him, while the ruling party speculated on the themes of peace in Georgia and war in Ukraine, the opposition did not present its “peace formula” and vision of relations with Russia and the West.
“The peace and war narrative worked very well. This was the main message and trump card of the Georgian Dream,” says political scientist Gia Nodia. “If we don’t, then there will be a war” – this affected many people. Even though it was not convincing from a rational point of view, it worked on an instinctive level – everyone is afraid of war.”
Convincing victory or clever fraud?
According to preliminary data from the CEC, Georgian Dream receives about 54% of the votes (at the time of publication, 99.9% of ballots were processed).
The opposition believes that these figures were the result of fraud. The For Georgia party announced systemic violations that directly affected the election results.
The “My Voice” observation mission, which brought together 30 non-governmental organizations, recorded more than 200 violations, including ballot stuffing, attacks and beatings of observers, and the expulsion of journalists accredited for the elections.
The vast majority of polling stations in Georgia are equipped with an electronic vote counting system.
Observers from Transparency International Georgia note that, on the one hand, the automation of ballot processing complicates fraud at polling stations, but on the other hand, it leads to more unobvious methods of influencing the outcome of elections being used more often.
Photo caption: Even on election day, Bidzina Ivanishvili convinced voters that external forces wanted to “draw Georgia into hostilities”
“We are still a very poor country, so many people are financially vulnerable. For example, inclusion in a social security scheme may be something very important to a person. Or, if a person has a small business, he may need some specific help from the government. And suddenly they answer him: “Yes, we are here, we can do this for you.” Or, for example, a person’s driver’s license was revoked due to drunk driving. And then his rights are returned to him in exchange for a tick on the election ballot,” Deputy Director of Transparency International Georgia Georgiy Oniani explained to the BBC.
Representative of the For Georgia party Natia Mezvrishvili named among the violations the confiscation of identity cards from opposition-minded citizens so that others could vote with their document. According to her, the party has evidence of such violations.
Transparency International Georgia explains the essence of a similar “document rental” scheme: “On the eve of elections, people are asked to give up their identity cards for a day in exchange for a monetary reward. In some cases, other people then vote using these certificates, in others, a failure to appear is simply recorded.”
What is the reason for the popularity of Georgian Dream?
Immediately after the end of voting on Saturday, several Georgian media published the results of exit polls conducted on their order.
The Imedi television channel, associated with the Georgian authorities, gave the ruling party 56.1% of the votes – this is close to the data that was eventually announced by the Central Election Commission.
But two opposition channels – Mtavari and Formula – received different results: their polls gave “Dream” 40-42%. Based on these two exit polls, the opposition was confident that together they had won the election.
But even 40% of the votes is a lot. Why does the Georgian Dream, which is often accused of serving Russian interests, have such support in a country where almost 80% of the population supports joining the European Union?
On the one hand, the ruling party skillfully uses the conservative sentiments of part of society.
For example, she talks about protecting the population from “propaganda and popularization of LGBT people” – this message appeals to many voters. By data According to the World Values Survey project, Georgia ranked 82nd in terms of tolerance among 88 countries surveyed between 2017 and 2022: more than 90% of respondents said they do not condone homosexuality.
Georgian Dream also skillfully uses the theme of war in its performances.
“Those who want to drag the country into war, internal and external enemies, are waiting for even the slightest chance to somehow replace the national government with agents, which directly means bombs in Georgia and the destruction of the country,” party head Bidzina Ivanishvili convinced voters.
Against the background of the crisis in relations with the West, some part of the population seems important to maintain peace with Russia, which directly borders Georgia.
“Of course, not everyone has to be an expert in geopolitics. And when you are constantly told that there is a huge risk of war with a neighbor, many simply believe it and are afraid, this is understandable,” notes analyst Badridze. He adds that Georgian Dream politicians have been careful not to reveal details of the dangers that allegedly loom over the country.
They describe the threats in extremely general terms, which, on the one hand, plays on deep-seated fears, and on the other hand, complicates the task of refuting the voiced versions.
Photo caption, Chairman of the Unity – National Movement Tina Bokuchava, after the announcement of the results of the Central Election Commission, said that the party does not recognize the election results
Another important aspect is that Georgian Dream continues to position itself as a force that will bring Georgia into the European Union, while maintaining a balance in relations with Moscow.
“It is this government that will lead Georgia along the path of European integration. In 2030, Georgia will be a country well prepared to join the European Union. It is in our hands that we have the opportunity to make this country better, improve the economy, and raise the social level of our citizens to European standards. Here’s what we can do. And we have already done this for many years,” Georgian Dream spokeswoman Maka Bochorishvilli told the BBC.
Opposition representatives and some analysts are skeptical about these words, noting that it was the ruling party that provoked this year the deepest crisis in relations between Georgia and the West in the last 20 years, passing, despite large-scale protests, the Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence (the Law about foreign agents). After this, the process of the country’s accession to the EU was suspended, and the United States, Tbilisi’s strategic partner, began a review of bilateral relations.
Dozens of representatives of the ruling party and officials found themselves under US visa restrictions “for undermining Georgia’s democracy,” and several Georgian citizens, including two high-ranking Interior Ministry officials, were under sanctions.
Will the opposition be able to turn the situation in their favor?
“I think the opposition was euphoric after the announcement of the exit polls, then, after the announcement of the official results, it turned into depression, and is still at a loss,” says political scientist Gia Nodia.
Immediately after the announcement of the first official data, they took a break to discuss the timing and strategy of the protests. This delay could play into the hands of Georgian Dream.
Former diplomat Badridze agrees: “In 2003, when the then government tried to steal the elections, the protests had very authoritative and energetic leaders. This time the opposition does not have one specific and prominent leader. I don’t know how much our society will be able to organize itself, how much the current opposition will be able to become the driving force of these protests.”
Gia Nodia concludes: “There will be protests, but I don’t expect large-scale protests that will lead to any tangible political results.”
