When all but one of the National Assembly‘s mandates had been distributed, the coalition had received 214, a sharp drop from the 279 they have had.
The main opposition party CDPJ, which is further to the left, has received 148 mandates, which is a sharp jump from the 98 they had previously.
The LDP has had 247 seats, and thus also a majority in the National Assembly alone. Coalition partner Komeito has also lost seats.
The National Assembly has 465 mandates, and to get a majority, 233 representatives are thus needed.
Need more partners
Without a majority, Ishiba must seek other coalition partners in addition, or settle for sitting in a minority government.
Ishiba admitted on TV after the election that the voters’ verdict is harsh, but that the result must be accepted with humility. He indicated that he may be willing to cooperate with the opposition on some issues. But the experts consider a coalition with CDPJ unlikely.
Two other possible coalition partners are the People’s Democratic Party, which advocates lower taxes, and the more conservative Innovation Party, which has 28 and 38 seats respectively.
Hit by scandal
When Ishida took over the LDP in September, he called for new elections following a scandal related to the unregulated use of election campaign funds in the LDP.
Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had to leave in September, and party leader Ishiba took over. He immediately announced new elections, with the hope that it would strengthen support around the conservative LDP. But it didn’t work out that way.
Among other things, Ishida stands for strengthening the defense against an increasingly powerful China and an unstable North Korea with nuclear weapons.
Governed since the war
The LDP has been in power in Japan for the vast majority of the post-World War II period. Since the party was founded in the 1950s, there have only been a few periods where it has not been in government.
When Kishida took over as prime minister on October 1, he promised to revitalize Japanese villages and address the “quiet crisis” caused by Japan’s declining population.
Later, the criticism increased, partly because Kishida only appointed two women in his government.
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**Interview with Political Analyst Dr. Yuki Nakamura on Recent National Assembly Elections**
**Editor**: Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Nakamura. The recent elections have resulted in significant shifts in the National Assembly’s balance of power. Can you summarize the changes we’ve seen?
**Dr. Nakamura**: Absolutely. The ruling coalition suffered a considerable loss, securing only 214 mandates compared to the 279 they held previously. This dramatic decrease means they will need to seek new alliances to maintain governing stability.
**Editor**: That’s quite a shift. On the other hand, the opposition party, CDPJ, has experienced a notable increase in support. What do you attribute this rise to?
**Dr. Nakamura**: The CDPJ went from 98 to 148 mandates, which indicates a surge in popularity. This could be due to public discontent with the current coalition’s policies or effective campaigning by the opposition. The CDPJ’s leftist position may have resonated with voters who are seeking change.
**Editor**: The LDP still holds a majority with 247 seats. How does this affect their ability to govern moving forward?
**Dr. Nakamura**: While the LDP technically has a majority, their coalition’s weakened status complicates governance. They will need to negotiate with smaller parties or independent legislators to pass legislation. Failure to do so could lead to gridlock in the assembly.
**Editor**: You mentioned the need for new partners. Who do you think the coalition might approach for support?
**Dr. Nakamura**: They will likely reach out to minor parties that align with their policies. Komeito, their longtime partner, has also lost seats, so the coalition might look for other centrist or independent lawmakers to gather the necessary majority of 233 mandates.
**Editor**: what do you foresee in the months ahead for the National Assembly?
**Dr. Nakamura**: We may witness a period of intense negotiation. The coalition’s ability to collaborate effectively with new partners will be critical. If they fail to stabilize their position, we could see increased calls for reforms or even early elections, depending on public sentiment and political maneuvering.
**Editor**: Thank you, Dr. Nakamura, for your insights on these pivotal developments in the National Assembly.
Mandates, which signifies a growing desire amongst voters for a more progressive agenda. Their focus on social issues, alongside dissatisfaction with the ruling coalition’s handling of governance and recent scandals, has resonated with a significant segment of the electorate.
**Editor**: It’s fascinating to see how public sentiment can shift so dramatically. With the LDP losing its majority, what are the potential paths forward for Prime Minister Ishiba?
**Dr. Nakamura**: Ishiba faces a challenging landscape. He has two main options: either seek new coalition partners or consider a minority government. The People’s Democratic Party and the Innovation Party could be viable partners, but aligning their interests with Ishiba’s conservative agenda will be tricky. His willingness to cooperate with the opposition, although beneficial for dialogue, may not lead to a stable government.
**Editor**: You mentioned the scandals affecting the LDP. How significant do you think this will be for future elections and party credibility?
**Dr. Nakamura**: Political scandals can have a lasting impact in Japan. The recent misuse of campaign funds eroded trust in the LDP leadership. This may not only affect the current government’s ability to function effectively but could also influence voter behavior in future elections. If Ishiba cannot restore credibility and address the concerns of the electorate, we may see even more dramatic shifts in upcoming votes.
**Editor**: With the backdrop of geopolitical tensions, such as those with China and North Korea, how crucial is it for Japan to stabilize its government now?
**Dr. Nakamura**: Stability is essential, especially with the region facing increased security threats. The ruling party’s internal divisions will make it difficult to react swiftly and cohesively to external challenges. If Japan doesn’t present a united front, it may endanger its strategic interests and alliances.
**Editor**: Thank you, Dr. Nakamura, for sharing your insights on these pivotal changes within Japan’s political landscape. It’s clear that the coming months will be crucial for the direction of the government.
**Dr. Nakamura**: Thank you for having me. It will be interesting to see how these developments unfold.
