This Sunday, Brazil is preparing for the second round of municipal elections, a challenge for the forces led by President Lula da Silva and former President Jair Bolsonaro, in view of the 2026 presidential elections.
The first round, held on October 6, was very favorable for the right, especially highlighting the performance of the former president’s Liberal Party (PL).
“What is at stake in this second round is the redistribution of the cards of power between the right-wing and center-right parties in Brazil,” already in the majority in Parliament, explained Geraldo Monteiro, professor of Political Science at the University of the State of Rio de Janeiro.
Municipal elections in Brazil
The latest poll by the Datafolha institute, published this Saturday, gives Nunes 57% of voting intentions, while her left-wing opponent receives 43%.
Unlike the first round, Lula could not accompany Boulos on the campaign trail the day before the vote due to the domestic accident he suffered on October 19.
The president hit his head after falling in the bathroom while cutting his nails, forcing him to restrict his schedule to Brasilia.
Lula will not be able to travel this Sunday to vote in his town of Sao Bernardo do Campo, on the outskirts of Sao Paulo.
Second round of municipal elections in Brazil
The second round will take place in 51 cities: the largest ones with more than 100,000 inhabitants in which no candidate obtained an absolute majority three weeks ago.
In Rio de Janeiro, centrist Eduardo Paes, supported by Lula, was comfortably re-elected for what will be his fourth term.
But in 15 of the 27 state capitals there will be a second round, with a tight fight in nine of them, such as in Fortaleza (northeast) and Cuiabá (central east).
In both cities the duel is between candidates from Lula’s Workers’ Party and Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party.
However, the former far-right president had a discreet presence in the campaign and one of his closest allies, the influential evangelical pastor Silas Malafaia, called him a “coward.”
(Agencies)
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**Interview with Geraldo Monteiro: Analyzing Brazil’s Second Round of Municipal Elections**
**Editor:** Welcome, Professor Monteiro. Thank you for joining us today to discuss the upcoming second round of municipal elections in Brazil. With the first round indicating a strong showing for right-leaning parties, could you explain the significance of these elections in the context of Brazil’s political landscape?
**Geraldo Monteiro:** Thank you for having me. The second round of municipal elections is pivotal as it sets the stage for the 2026 presidential elections. The performance of right-wing parties, particularly Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party, in the first round indicates a shift in power dynamics. This election isn’t just about local governance; it’s about reconfiguring the political landscape ahead of the presidential race.
**Editor:** Interesting. You mentioned a “redistribution of power.” Could you elaborate on what this means for the center-right and right-wing parties moving forward?
**Geraldo Monteiro:** Certainly. The right and center-right parties are already influential in Congress, but their performance in these elections could solidify their majority. If they succeed in the municipalities, it allows them to control local policies and align more effectively for the presidential elections. The municipal level often serves as a breeding ground for presidential candidates, so gaining ground now is crucial.
**Editor:** The first round showcased the Liberal Party’s strength. How do you see President Lula da Silva’s coalition responding during this second round?
**Geraldo Monteiro:** Lula’s coalition faces a tough challenge. They need to rally support in key areas where right-leaning parties performed well. If they can increase voter turnout and focus on local issues that resonate with constituents, they might counteract the momentum of the right. However, it will require a strategic approach to engage voters effectively.
**Editor:** As we approach the elections this Sunday, what should voters particularly pay attention to?
**Geraldo Monteiro:** Voters should focus on the candidates’ platforms and how they plan to address pressing local issues such as public safety, healthcare, and economic recovery post-pandemic. Additionally, observing how each party aligns with national issues can provide insights into the broader political affiliations and future implications for the presidential race.
**Editor:** Thank you, Professor Monteiro, for your insights. It will certainly be interesting to see how the elections unfold and their implications for Brazil’s future.
**Geraldo Monteiro:** Thank you for the discussion. It’s an important moment for Brazil, and I appreciate the opportunity to share my thoughts.
**Editor:** The stakes seem particularly high in this election cycle, especially with President Lula unable to campaign fully due to his recent accident. How do you think this absence will impact his party’s performance in the second round?
**Geraldo Monteiro:** Lula’s absence is indeed a significant factor. His charisma and direct involvement have historically been crucial in galvanizing support for the Workers’ Party. The fact that he cannot campaign this time may hinder their ability to mobilize voters in key areas. It could create a gap that opponents can exploit, especially given the favorable conditions the right-wing parties experienced in the first round.
**Editor:** You mentioned that there are tight races in cities like Fortaleza and Cuiabá. What should voters look for as they head to the polls this Sunday?
**Geraldo Monteiro:** Voters should focus on the candidates’ platforms and their potential to bring about local change. In cities with tight races, like Fortaleza and Cuiabá, the outcome could hinge on voter turnout and engagement. Additionally, the interaction between local issues and broader national narratives, influenced by the upcoming presidential elections, can sway undecided voters. Understanding the candidates’ alignment with either Lula or Bolsonaro could also play a significant role in voter decision-making.
**Editor:** Lastly, considering the overall political environment, what do you foresee for Brazil in the lead-up to the 2026 elections based on the results of these municipal elections?
**Geraldo Monteiro:** The results of the municipal elections will likely shape the strategies and alliances moving into 2026. If the right and center-right parties secure key municipalities, they may feel emboldened to challenge Lula’s legacy more aggressively. Conversely, a strong showing by the Workers’ Party could rejuvenate left-leaning movements and potentially unify opposition against Bolsonaro’s influence. these elections are critical for both sides not just for immediate governance but for the long-term strategies they will adopt as they gear up for the presidential race.
**Editor:** Thank you, Professor Monteiro, for your insights. The upcoming elections are sure to be a pivotal moment in Brazil’s political landscape.
