The São Paulo Election: A Comedy of Errors, or Just a Regular Tuesday?
As the dust settles on the São Paulo mayoral election, we find ourselves at the intersection of political farce and tragedy. Ricardo Nunes, the 56-year-old candidate—sponsored with all the enthusiasm of a cat at a dog show—managed to clinch victory with a comfy 59% of the votes. That’s right! He’s now officially the mayor of the richest city in Brazil, which, I must say, really raises the stakes for all our local pub quizzes.
This election served as yet another blockbuster episode of Brazilian politics, featuring a gripping cast: one conservative mayor and a challenger backed by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who, by the way, was absent during what many would consider a crucial moment for his party. Yes, it seems Lula was busy nursing some stitches from an unfortunate *incident* that required his absence, almost like he was trying to avoid the facepalms of his supporters. Talk about being out of the game!
The results are akin to the plot twist in a soap opera that nobody asked for: while Nunes basked in his politically-charged victory—with a comfortable lead over Guilherme Boulos, the leftist candidate—Lula’s Workers’ Party found itself shuffling through the rain of disappointment like a soggy postcard from holiday. If you’re keeping score, the left barely holds onto just two out of 26 state capitals. I guess you could say they really have *left the building* on this one!
What’s more surprising is how Nunes, a “gray right-wing technocrat” (a phrase that sounds suspiciously like something straight out of a robotic dystopia), navigated his way through this electoral quagmire. It’s almost as if he inherited the mayoral seat without breaking a sweat. Just to add a sprinkle of chaos into the mix, Tarcisio de Freitas—the governor of São Paulo and Bolsonaro’s favorite pupil—made a rather questionable accusation against Boulos, implying that prisoners were rallying behind leftist candidates. I mean, hey, if we’re throwing around wild assumptions like it’s confetti, why not aim it higher, folks?
Now, Lula’s supporters might find solace in the fact that less extreme right parties managed to do moderately well. It’s like finding a five-dollar bill in the laundry; it’s not the jackpot, but it’s better than nothing. Thomas Traumann, our trusty political analyst, summed it up perfectly when he suggested that Bolsonaro’s anti-PT magic has waned. Could it be that even in Brazil, people are getting tired of the same old villain? No way!
And speaking of villains, let’s not overlook Nunes’ rather colorful sidekick, Ricardo Mello Araújo—a retired military officer with a background in ‘hands-on’ policing. Let’s just say his résumé might raise a few eyebrows in more progressive circles. It appears that politics these days is just one big audition for a Netflix series titled “Law and Disorder.”
So here we are, folks: another series of Brazilian elections proving that political dramas never go out of style. Will Lula bounce back? Will Bolsonaro continue to haunt the right-wing views of politics? Or will Nunes head to a local mayorship and turn it into a circus? If you ask me, there’s enough political fodder here to fill an entire Netflix season. So grab your popcorn, sit tight, and let’s see how the political chips fall in this land of samba and politics!
Remember, politics is just like stand-up comedy: it’s all about timing, delivery, and occasionally, a good punchline. And guess what? In São Paulo, it looks like the punchlines are getting funnier!
Ricardo Nunes, 56, the candidate endorsed with little enthusiasm by former President Jair Bolsonaro, celebrated a decisive re-election as the mayor of São Paulo on Sunday, triumphing against 42-year-old Guilherme Boulos, the candidate backed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Nunes’s comfortable victory saw him clinch an impressive 59% of the votes, establishing a significant 20-point lead over Boulos’s 40%. This election, which unfolded in São Paulo—Brazil’s richest city and the most populous in the southern hemisphere—was the focal point of the municipal elections, marking a pivotal contest in a political landscape that finds itself at the mid-point of Lula’s current presidential term. The results signaled a considerable setback for the Workers’ Party (PT), illustrating a Brazil that remains steadfast in its alignment with traditional conservative values and the Bolsonaro-era right, while simultaneously punishing leftist political factions. Notably, progressives will only oversee two of the 26 state capitals, including one governed by Lula’s PT, while the far-right controls five, with nine under more moderate right-wing leadership.
Nunes, a pragmatic and unassuming right-wing technocrat, stepped into the mayoral role following the passing of his predecessor due to cancer. With four years of experience at the helm of this sprawling metropolis—an economic powerhouse of Brazil—he has now solidified his political foothold. While Bolsonaro’s backing was tepid, it became evident that Tarcisio de Freitas, the governor of São Paulo and Bolsonaro’s most promising protégé, played a crucial role in Nunes’s campaign. “I thank the greatest leader, without whom this victory would not be possible. The friend who gave me a hand in the most difficult moment, Governor Tarcísio de Freitas,” Nunes stated as he acknowledged de Freitas after his victory.
Amidst the voting process, Governor de Freitas delivered a significant rhetorical blow to Boulos, subtly insinuating allegations—without any substantiation—that the notorious First Capital Command (PCC), Brazil’s largest criminal faction, had influenced votes for leftist candidates from within prisons. This assertion, while unfounded, serves to consolidate the right’s position in São Paulo, thus bolstering de Freitas’s political standing. The governor appears more inclined towards a pragmatic approach than his political mentor and is in no rush to pursue a future presidential candidacy, especially since Bolsonaro remains ineligible to run until 2030 following his controversial statements on electronic voting security.
One of the few reminders of hope for President Lula amidst these results might be noted in the fact that traditional, less ideologically driven parties within the right have frequently outperformed the more extreme factions associated with his predecessor in recent electoral contests.
For political analyst Thomas Traumann, the latest elections exemplify that the same municipalities elucidating the vulnerabilities of both the PT and Lula’s administration have also highlighted a diminishing control over anti-PT sentiments that once characterized former President Bolsonaro’s tenure, as expressed in a recent article for the magazine Look.
The municipal elections coincided almost precisely with the second anniversary of Lula’s narrow election victory in 2022, which was achieved through an extensive coalition spanning from traditional right-wing parties to far-left groups. Lula currently faces a congress that remains predominantly right-leaning, often stymieing many of his initiatives and enabled to demand substantial compromises for legislative support.
Despite Lula’s attempts to rally support for the Boulos campaign, he opted not to make a personal appearance in the final phases of the electoral race and was unable to vote due to health concerns stemming from a recent injury that required five stitches. This incident hindered his travel to the BRICS+ summit, marking his 79th birthday in a challenging and tumultuous chapter of his presidency.
The situation surrounding the Workers’ Party remains precarious, as this once formidable electoral force in Latin America grapples with diminishing municipal influence. Although it was at the forefront of Brazilian politics in the early 2000s, the party has struggled to maintain significant territorial control. This year marks the first occasion since 2016 that a municipal capital has come under PT governance. In recent years, their municipal presence has waned, leading them to opt for strategic support of candidates from other parties rather than fielding their own in São Paulo and various other cities.
Among the few successes for the PT in this election cycle, only one of the four candidates they presented in state capitals managed to secure victory by the slimmest of margins; Evandro Leitão narrowly defeated his opponent from the Freedom Party by 0.7 percentage points, translating to fewer than 11,000 votes in Fortaleza, Ceará.
Nunes’ victory also shines a spotlight on Colonel Ricardo Mello Araújo, a retired military police officer chosen by Bolsonaro to run against him. Araújo, who led ROTA, the São Paulo Military Police intervention unit, has been a subject of multiple homicide investigations linked to fatalities during police operations, although his campaign asserts that all inquiries have been resolved by judicial authorities.
