The last 24 hours, the final rush. Then on Sunday 27th and Monday 28th the Ligurians will go to the polls to decide. And the unnerving wait for the wide field will begin as an important piece of its future is being played out in Liguria. If not quite literally the neck bone. Meanwhile, for a few hours today, all national politics moves to Genoa. Starting with the leaders of the center-right (at 4.30 pm at the Auditorium of the cotton warehouses, in the Porto Antico): Giorgia Meloni, Antonio Tajani, Matteo Salvini, Maurizio Lupi, and Stefano Bandecchi, to support Marco Bucci. An hour later (at 5.30 pm at the Politeama Theatre), the big names of the wide field, who hadn’t been seen since the July event, reunite: Elly Schlein, Giuseppe Conte, Angelo Bonelli, Nicola Fratoianni, Enzo Maraio and in video connection, to keep his distance, Carlo Calenda, to encourage Andrea Orlando. Precisely, the last ball of hope for an alliance weighed down by the outcome of the vote and which during the electoral campaign has already risked falling apart several times.
It is precisely in Liguria that Giuseppe Conte decided to put Elly Schlein in his sights, first by prevaricating on the candidacy of Andrea Orlando, then shortly before the closing of the lists, deciding to expel Italia Viva. Greeted with jubilation by the allies: most of the dems, the duo Bonelli Fratoianni and Ferruccio Sansa, practically an “execution” squad. In the last two weeks, Pd and M5S, complicit in increasingly worrying polls, have decided to put the silence on the controversy and to make a unitary closure, the one today. The secretary of the P peace and the leader of the M5S know that theirs is in the hands of the former minister. If he were to lose, the abyss of controversy over Elly Schlein would reopen for the Nazarene. Is he really capable of leading an alternative coalition to that of Giorgia Meloni? Or is it all “talk and badge”? A cliff that would bring back to the surface all the challengers to the succession, real and imaginary. Starting with one: the former European Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni, who is the real hole card of the Dem reformists, who have never truly accepted the command of the unexpected. In short, a stop in Liguria would reopen the eternal construction site of the Democratic Party, the fight for the succession of a secretary considered not up to par, endless discussions and unnerving analyzes of the defeat.
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A similar situation concerns Giuseppe Conte, a misstep by Orlando would automatically transform him into the scapegoat. In fact, Volturara’s lawyer Appula has demanded the exclusion of Matteo Renzi, if in the end there are only a few votes missing, he will be the one responsible, and certainly the one who will have to suffer the opening to the former mayor of Florence, without saying a word. Already Matteo Renzi, after the broad camp diktat, has left his voters free to vote. What will Italia Viva do? Marco Bucci has no doubts: «Many people who joined Italia Viva e Azione immediately embraced this line, some even ran with us. Orlando didn’t want them, but now he’s asking for their votes, a bad way to do things.” An inference that unnerves Calenda who declares to the agencies: «Bucci has a bad way of doing politics. Action has the symbol with the Civic Alliance, Republicans and Europeanist Republican Movement in support of Orlando.” The fact is that the leader of Action today will not be at the Politeama with the big names of the wide field but only in connection, will it be a coincidence, or is it better not to show his face? The calendar also says that it is an electoral round of national importance. Liguria opens the ball, then on 17-18 November Umbria and Emilia Romagna will also vote.
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A close succession which in the summer gave the Democratic Party hope for a “trouble”. At the Nazarene the forecasts left no room for doubt: “we will win 3-0”, announced Elly Schlein proudly, who was anticipating the push against the centre-right government. Now with their feet more on the ground, the Dem parliamentarians exchange more pessimistic statements: “it will be fine if we lose 2-1, basically a disaster”. It is the real terror that pervades the broad field: «starting with defeat in the Region in which we were certain we would succeed». Maybe this is why Andrea Orlando on the microphone of Un giorno da pecora tries his last shot: «I will win 51 to 47». If it didn’t go like this, ultimately little would change for him, he would immediately return to Rome, to settle accounts with a secretary, supported in the primaries, but not particularly loved. In short, in the grand finale, all the contrasts of recent months re-emerge, the coldness between the leaders, the irreconcilable agendas, the “tribal” antipathies. A caravanserai that could stop permanently in Genoa.
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Interview with Political Analyst, Dr. Alessio Riva
Date: October 25, 2024
Host: Good afternoon, Dr. Riva, and thank you for joining us today. We’re just a couple of days away from the critical regional elections in Liguria. Can you give us a brief overview of the political climate leading up to these elections?
Dr. Riva: Good afternoon, and thank you for having me. The political atmosphere in Liguria is incredibly tense right now. With national figures like Giorgia Meloni and Marco Bucci rallying support on one side, and Elly Schlein and Andrea Orlando seeking to unify the broad coalition on the other, the stakes are high. This election is not just about Liguria; it has implications for the broader political landscape in Italy.
Host: You mentioned the significance of this election beyond Liguria. In what ways could the outcome affect national politics?
Dr. Riva: Certainly. If the center-right, led by Meloni and Bucci, secures a strong victory, it could solidify their dominance and embolden them ahead of future elections. Conversely, a strong showing from the center-left could revitalize their coalition, which has struggled as seen in recent polls. The results will likely trigger discussions about leadership within the Democratic Party, especially regarding Elly Schlein’s position.
Host: There’s been considerable infighting, especially with figures like Giuseppe Conte and Andrea Orlando involved. How do you see this impacting voter sentiment?
Dr. Riva: The infighting has created a perception of disunity among the left. Electorate frustration is palpable, as voters often prefer cohesive and clear leadership. If Schlein and Orlando can present a united front, they might regain some lost support. However, any misstep—even a slight one—could exacerbate their challenges and lead to a loss of faith in their leadership.
Host: What about Matteo Renzi’s involvement? How does his role influence the upcoming election?
Dr. Riva: Renzi’s influence cannot be understated. His departure from being a vocal supporter to letting his voters decide freely speaks volumes. If the outcome is close, his previous backing—or lack thereof—may become a focal point for blame. Given the complexities of coalition politics in Italy, any dissent could lead to significant repercussions for all involved.
Host: what do you predict for the election outcome in Liguria?
Dr. Riva: Predicting electoral outcomes can be tricky, especially with the numerous variables at play. However, if past trends hold, we might see a closely contested race. Voter turnout will be crucial, and given the stakes, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some surprises come Sunday and Monday.
Host: Thank you, Dr. Riva, for your insights. It will certainly be interesting to see how this unfolds in the coming days.
Dr. Riva: Thank you for having me! I look forward to seeing the results as well.
Play out in the elections? What’s at stake for these leaders?
Dr. Riva: The internal dynamics among the center-left are particularly fraught. If Andrea Orlando fails to secure a victory, the scrutiny will inevitably fall on Elly Schlein’s leadership. Conte has made significant moves to consolidate power, and a defeat could open the floodgates for challenges to his authority as well. Essentially, this election acts as a litmus test for the viability of their alliances and overall strategy. The stakes are not just about winning Liguria; it’s about survival and potential reshuffling within the party ranks.
Host: Given the potential consequences, do you believe voter sentiment in Liguria reflects broader national issues?
Dr. Riva: Absolutely. Liguria is often seen as a microcosm of national sentiments. Issues like economic recovery, governance effectiveness, and immigration are prevalent. Many voters are expressing dissatisfaction with the status quo, which could favor either side depending on how candidates address these critical areas. This election is shaping up to be a barometer for how Italians feel about the current government and the opposition’s ability to present a coherent alternative.
Host: With only a couple of days left until the polls, what strategies do you anticipate the candidates will employ to sway undecided voters?
Dr. Riva: In these final days, we’ll likely see intensified campaigning, with both sides doubling down on their messaging. The center-right will likely emphasize stable governance and economic growth, while the center-left will focus on unity and revitalizing public trust. Personal engagements, rallies, and local outreach can make a significant impact at this stage. It’s crucial for both parties to connect with voters on a personal level as they attempt to seal their support.
Host: Thank you for your insights, Dr. Riva. It will be interesting to see how these elections unfold and what they mean for the future of Italian politics.
Dr. Riva: Thank you for having me. It certainly is an exciting moment in Italian politics.