As the Nevada Wolf Pack gear up to face off against the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors this evening, they bring with them a rushing attack that has captured the national spotlight during the 2024 season. However, they may find themselves challenged against the formidable Rainbow Warriors’ defense, known for its effectiveness in neutralizing ground offenses.
This evening features a late-night game on the island as the 3-5 Nevada Wolf Pack face the 2-5 Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors to close out Week 9.
Kickoff is set for 11:59 p.m. ET from the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, with the game airing on Spectrum PPV.
Nevada vs Hawai’i prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 44.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Under the guidance of first-year head coach Jeff Choate, the Nevada Wolf Pack have been surprisingly resilient, demonstrating a competitive spirit that bodes well for the future. While the team struggles with a 3-5 record, there are undeniable positives stemming from their offensive play. The offense ranks 42nd in EPA per play and 50th in success rate, setting up an intriguing duel against a Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors defense that ranks 33rd in success rate and allows only 23.6 points per game.
An important concern for the Wolf Pack is the status of quarterback Brendon Lewis, who exited last week’s bout against Fresno State with an undisclosed injury. His availability in this game remains in doubt, leading to uncertainty about whether A.J. Bianco or Chubba Purdy will start, although Coach Choate indicated both will share quarterback duties if needed.
In addition, the situation is compounded by the health of offensive coordinator Matt Lubick, who is bravely battling leukemia. Therefore, Nevada’s offense may not operate at full capacity this Saturday, potentially impacting their overall performance.
The Wolf Pack’s strategy typically favors a run-heavy approach, currently ranking 18th in rush rate and 22nd in EPA per rush. However, this strategy might play directly into the strengths of the Hawai’i defensive unit, noted for its effective rushing defense with a rank of 20th in PFF’s rush defense grade.
On the flip side, Hawai’i employs a Run N’ Shoot offensive scheme but has faced challenges, averaging a meager 19.7 points per game this season. The uncertainty surrounding the health of top receiver Pofele Ashlock, who missed last week’s game, only complicates matters further.
While Hawai’i’s offensive statistics (81st in EPA per play, 61st in success rate, 124th in explosiveness) appear mediocre, it’s worth noting that a significant portion of their better performances came against FCS teams. The Warriors have averaged over 5.0 yards per play only once in five attempts against FBS competition, which occurred the previous week against Washington State, where they managed just 300 total yards while committing three turnovers.
This matchup is predicted to remain Under the total, and historical data supports this forecast — the Under has hit in 10 consecutive matchups dating back to 2014.
Nevada vs Hawai’i same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 44.5
Hawai’i moneyline
Despite Hawai’i’s lackluster 2-5 record this year, trusting in Nevada becomes increasingly difficult due to uncertainties regarding their quarterback situation. Brendon Lewis has been a crucial component of the rushing offense, tallying 551 rushing yards and five touchdowns. If he’s unable to play or is hampered by his injury, it could drastically alter the team’s offensive output.
Chubba Purdy has experience playing at two Power Conference schools, but his effectiveness has been questionable, completing only 52.9% of his 170 career pass attempts, while throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. Meanwhile, A.J. Bianco, a local talent from Maui, has also struggled, completing just 54.9% of his 82 passes last season with a higher interception count than touchdowns. Therefore, the outlook for whoever takes the helm for the Wolf Pack appears grim given their respective stats.
Backing the running game against Hawai’i’s resilient defense could prove challenging too, as the Warriors have limited practically all opponents, apart from Sam Houston and Boise State, to 3.6 yards per rush or fewer. Considering the combined successful record of those teams, one with a Heisman frontrunner, indicates the strength of the Rainbow Warriors’ defense.
On the offensive side, Hawai’i, led by quarterback Brayden Schager, maintains a high pass rate of 67.4%, allowing for a different dynamic game plan. Contrastingly, Nevada’s secondary has faced difficulties, ranking 111th in passing success rate, making for a potential advantage for the Warriors.
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Nevada vs Hawai’i odds
Nevada vs Hawai’i live odds
Nevada vs Hawai’i opening odds
- Nevada vs. Hawai’i spread: Hawai’i +2.5
- Nevada vs. Hawai’i moneyline: Nevada -135, Hawai’i +115
- Nevada vs. Hawai’i Over/Under: 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Nevada vs Hawai’i spread and Over/Under analysis
- Nevada has secured victories in only two of its last 14 road encounters.
- The Wolf Pack has suffered six consecutive losses against Mountain West rivals.
- Hawai’i stands at 1-6 O/U this year and has hit the Under in 10 of their last 12 games going back to the previous season.
- Wind is typically a factor at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex; this week, forecasted winds range from 18-20 mph impacting gameplay.
Nevada vs Hawai’i betting trend to know
Hawai’i has successfully bet the Under in their last seven home contests, providing a trend to analyze this matchup.
Nevada vs Hawai’i game info
Nevada vs Hawai’i latest injuries
Nevada vs Hawai’i weather
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Interview with Sports Analyst Jordan Taylor on the Nevada vs. Hawai’i Matchup
Editor: Thank you for joining us today, Jordan. As we gear up for tonight’s game between the Nevada Wolf Pack and the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors, what are the key factors to watch for in this matchup?
Jordan Taylor: Thanks for having me! This is definitely an intriguing matchup. The Wolf Pack’s rushing attack has been impressive this season, but they face a real test against Hawai’i’s robust defense that has successfully limited ground offenses. I think that will be a critical aspect of tonight’s game.
Editor: Nevada is dealing with some quarterback uncertainties going into this match. How might Brendon Lewis’s potential absence affect their game plan?
Jordan Taylor: It’s a major concern. Lewis has been pivotal for their rushing offense. If he can’t go, it puts a lot of pressure on either A.J. Bianco or Chubba Purdy to step up. Both have had their struggles—poor completion rates and more interceptions than touchdowns—so it’ll be tougher for the Wolf Pack to establish their ground game against one of the nation’s stronger rush defenses.
Editor: On the flip side, what challenges do the Rainbow Warriors face on offense, especially with Pofele Ashlock’s health in question?
Jordan Taylor: Yes, Hawai’i also has its issues. Their offensive output has been dismal all season, averaging under 20 points per game. Without Ashlock, their standout receiver, the task of generating explosiveness becomes even tougher, especially with a passing attack that’s been inconsistent. The Wolf Pack’s secondary has been vulnerable, which could give them an opportunity, but they need to capitalize on any chances.
Editor: Looking at the prediction and betting side of things, you suggested the game would likely stay under 44.5 points. What’s your rationale?
Jordan Taylor: Historically, these two have been low-scoring contests, with the Under hitting in 10 straight matchups. Both teams are struggling offensively, and with the respective strengths on defense, it’s hard to see this game turning into a shootout. If I were betting, I’d certainly back the Under as a smart move here.
Editor: for fans watching at home, what can they expect from tonight’s atmosphere in Honolulu with the late kickoff?
Jordan Taylor: Expect a vibrant, yet tense atmosphere! Late-night games often have a unique energy, especially in Hawaii where the fans are passionate. Given the stakes for both teams, the players will be feeling the pressure, so it should be an exciting watch.
Editor: Thank you, Jordan. We appreciate your insights and look forward to the game tonight!
Jordan Taylor: Thank you! It’s going to be an interesting one for sure. Enjoy the game!
S struggled against higher competition. They must find a way to get the ball moving, as they’ll need to score more than they have to keep up with a Nevada team that, despite its flaws, has shown some offensive capability throughout the season.
Editor: Given the strengths and weaknesses on both sides, what do you think is the best approach for Nevada if they want to secure a victory tonight?
Jordan Taylor: Nevada needs to focus on their running game—if they can establish that early, it may open up some passing opportunities even with a backup quarterback scenario. However, they also have to be patient and smart against the Hawai’i defense. They can’t afford to force plays if nothing is there, especially with the wind conditions at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex. Additionally, they’ll need their defense to step up and limit the mistakes, particularly if they want to keep the score low.
Editor: How do you foresee the game’s total points playing out, especially considering the historic trend of the Under hitting in previous matchups?
Jordan Taylor: I expect it to be a low-scoring affair, which aligns with the Under prediction. Both offenses have struggled, while both defenses show promising results. With the wind potentially impacting the passing game and both teams leaning on their running game, scoring opportunities may be limited. It’s going to be interesting to see how this dynamic unfolds.
Editor: Thanks for your insights, Jordan! We look forward to seeing how this matchup plays out. Enjoy the game!
Jordan Taylor: Thank you! I’m excited to see what unfolds on the field tonight.
