If you’ve been following these Friday previews, you likely understand my perspective: While the marquee matchups like Bama-Georgia and Oregon-Ohio State are thrilling, the unpredictable weeks filled with surprising narratives and numerous games to follow are even more captivating.
Welcome to an exhilarating Week 9 grab bag filled with intriguing matchups. Among the standout games, LSU and Texas A&M are set to clash for the title of Surprise SEC Co-Favorite, complemented by an exhilarating slate featuring five ranked-versus-ranked showdowns. No. 3 Penn State, facing an in-form opponent, heads to confront the surging Big Ten powerhouse. Rising contenders Indiana and Navy also make waves this weekend, while Boise State and UNLV square off in a crucial Group of 5 showdown that could define the season. And can Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt defy the odds against another top-five rival?
As we dive into a weekend rife with tight Big 12 matchups and storied rivalries, including Miami-Florida State and Michigan-Michigan State, the football chaos intensifies. Here’s all you need to keep an eye on this weekend—it’s poised to be a football fan’s delight. (All times are Eastern. Lines from ESPN BET.)
A trio of unexpectedly important SEC games
After rocky starts to the season, LSU and Texas A&M have rebounded spectacularly, each riding matching six-game winning streaks. SP+ projections currently rank them as the No. 2 and No. 4 most likely teams to capture the SEC title, respectively. The Tigers travel to College Station for a matchup that has gained significant importance since the season began.
No. 8 LSU at No. 14 Texas A&M (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)
This upcoming clash marks the 53rd meeting between LSU and Texas A&M, and notably, only the third time both teams have been ranked in the top 15 during their matchup history. Given the combined stakes, this game arguably carries more weight than any previous encounter between the Tigers and the Aggies.
LSU has shown substantial improvement, becoming a more well-rounded team in recent weeks. Garrett Nussmeier, currently ranking 10th in QBR, has bolstered an offense that has been consistent. Conversely, coordinator Blake Baker’s defense, initially challenged, now boasts impressive metrics: a 21.2% havoc rate (ranking 10th nationally), a 48.8% pressure rate on dropbacks (second), and a 25.5% stuff rate on rushes (14th). This increased chaos has defined Baker’s defensive strategy and produced tangible results.
A&M’s offensive strengths typically lean toward stability. Running back Le’Veon Moss is highly effective at maintaining positive yardage, while quarterback Conner Weigman has contributed to a scoring surge with performances of 41 and 34 points since returning from injury. The physical nature of A&M’s offense will be tested against LSU’s quick defense.
The performance of A&M’s pass defense will also be critical in limiting Nussmeier’s efficiency. In LSU’s most significant win against Ole Miss, Nussmeier managed just 43% completion but averaged an impressive 15.3 yards per completion. Meanwhile, A&M stands 10th in completion percentage allowed and possesses elite pass rusher Nic Scourton.
Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 0.4 | FPI projection: A&M by 1.0
No. 21 Missouri at No. 15 Alabama (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)
Spare a thought for Alabama fans. They are navigating a season in which the Crimson Tide has suffered the shock of two losses already. Their path to a potential CFP spot remains viable, but it’s worth noting that they have not lost two games within the same month since November 2007. Their current challenge is to avoid a disastrous third loss in October.
Missouri has developed a reputation for resilience, winning three close games at home, including the recent epic dubbed the Brady Cook Game. However, concerns linger regarding injuries affecting four of their offensive starters, including key players like quarterback Brady Cook and running back Nate Noel. The Tigers’ defense has recently excelled, allowing just 4.5 yards per play against Auburn.
If Missouri can strike early, the atmosphere at Bryant-Denny Stadium could shift dramatically. Alabama faces its own vulnerabilities, including penalties and insufficient pressure on opposing quarterbacks, elements that could easily lead to an upset.
Current line: Bama -16.5 (up from -14 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Bama by 8.6 | FPI projection: Bama by 13.8
No. 5 Texas at No. 25 Vanderbilt (4:15 p.m., SECN)
Texas should aim for a rapid start. Despite Vanderbilt’s lackluster performance against teams like Georgia State, the Commodores have battled through an array of tough games, standing as the most tested team in 2024.
Diego Pavia leads Vanderbilt, who has faced top-40 opponents throughout the season. Their defensive challenges against Texas’s potent offense present an intriguing matchup that could dictate the outcome. Meanwhile, Texas should control the game, but the unexpected twist might come as Vanderbilt continues to rise in the ranks.
With numbers indicating success for Texas, Vandy must find a way to limit the Longhorns’ passing effectiveness. Injuries may play a role in how this game unfolds.
Current line: Texas -18.5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 19.8 | FPI projection: Texas by 20.2
Potential narrative shifts in the Big Ten?
As Week 9 unfolds, Illinois has a chance to disrupt the established order in the Big Ten as the race heats up. Currently, Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State emerge as the primary contenders while Indiana lurks as a dark horse.
No. 20 Illinois at No. 1 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Illinois, historically a powerhouse, aims to establish relevance this season. The Fighting Illini have thrived recently, showcasing a balanced offensive and defensive approach.
With a chance to upset Oregon, Illinois could thrust itself into College Football Playoff discussions. The Ducks, however, possess formidable talent, including Dillon Gabriel, who leads the nation with an incredible completion percentage.
Oregon’s defense has been successful in thwarting strong offenses, making them a challenging opponent. Any slip-up by Illinois could have dire consequences in this marquee matchup.
Current line: Oregon -21.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 20.4 | FPI projection: Oregon by 21.2
Washington at No. 13 Indiana (noon, BTN)
Indiana’s monumental 56-7 triumph over Nebraska last week was a significant milestone, leading to expectations of continued success. The Hoosiers now face new challenges, particularly with College GameDay making its inaugural appearance in Bloomington this Saturday. However, quarterback Kurtis Rourke will be sidelined following a thumb injury.
Despite quarterback Tayven Jackson’s relative inexperience, Indiana’s defense has yet to face a top-60 offense. Washington presents both an opportunity and a challenge, given their struggles in red zone efficiency. Jackson’s performance will be crucial in shaping Indiana’s prospects.
Current line: Indiana -6.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 10.0 | FPI projection: Indiana by 14.9
No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin (7:30 p.m., NBC)
Penn State has demonstrated exceptional skill this season, achieving notable success on both offense and defense. Facing a revived Wisconsin team brings fresh challenges for the Nittany Lions.
Wisconsin has turned its season around, showing improved performance after a shaky start. Quarterback Braedyn Locke has made impactful plays, while the Badgers’ defense has dominated weaker offenses. This contest will test Penn State’s mettle and their quest for a Big Ten title.
Current line: PSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 10.0 | FPI projection: PSU by 7.7
Elimination(ish) games in the Group of 5
The dynamics within the Group of 5 have shifted, with Boise State leading the pack. This week, two crucial matchups could significantly impact playoff chances.
No. 17 Boise State at UNLV (Friday, 10:30 p.m., CBSSN)
UNLV’s resurgence under Barry Odom has yielded impressive results, inching closer to matching their total wins from the previous five seasons.
Boise State enters this game as a favorite, but UNLV aims to end a long-standing losing streak against the Broncos. With a dynamic offense led by Ashton Jeanty, Boise State poses a significant threat.
Current line: BSU -3.5 (up from -2.5) | SP+ projection: BSU by 1.6 | FPI projection: BSU by 4.5
No. 12 Notre Dame at No. 24 Navy (noon, ABC/ESPN+)
The longstanding Notre Dame-Navy rivalry is captivating, with the Midshipmen aiming to end their recent struggles against the Fighting Irish.
This season, Navy has proved formidable, boasting a perfect record and a standout performance from quarterback Blake Horvath. However, Notre Dame’s high-scoring offense is a challenging test for Navy’s defense.
Current line: Irish -13.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 19.5 | FPI projection: Irish by 20.9
Latest round of tight Big 12 games with title stakes
The Big 12 is heating up, with unbeaten teams vying for supremacy after close games last week.
No. 11 BYU at UCF (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
UCF is eager to reclaim momentum after a string of tough losses, showcasing their potential against conference foes.
With a strong performance in their matchup against BYU, the Knights aim to flip the script, but the Cougars will be formidable opponents.
Current line: UCF -2.5 (flipped from BYU -1) | SP+ projection: BYU by 3.2 | FPI projection: UCF by 1.6
Kansas at No. 16 Kansas State (8 p.m., ESPN2)
Despite an early-season setback, Kansas State has emerged as a frontrunner in the Big 12, showcasing impressive form over the last several games.
Kansas, following a recent standout performance, could pose challenges for K-State, making this a fascinating matchup.
Current line: K-State -10 | SP+ projection: K-State by 11.6 | FPI projection: K-State by 10.0
Cincinnati at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN).
Cincinnati and Colorado have seen their seasons evolve dramatically, culminating in strong showings as they continue to jockey for position within the Big 12.
With playoff implications hanging in the balance, both teams are vying for crucial victories to enhance their standings.
Current line: Colorado -5.5 (up from -3.5) | SP+ projection: Colorado by 2.7 | FPI projection: Colorado by 6.9
Week 9 chaos superfecta
I utilize SP+ win probabilities every week to stir up chaos in the college football landscape, assessing potential upset scenarios.
This week suggests that Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, and Penn State all have less than a 44% chance of winning their games, setting the stage for a thrilling weekend of surprises.
Week 9 playlist
Here are additional games worth tracking this weekend, perfect for those looking to maximize their football viewing experience.
Friday evening
Rutgers at USC (11 p.m., Fox). In a unique matchup, Rutgers travels across the country to face USC in a game critical for both teams’ seasons, as they seek redemption following recent struggles.
Current line: USC -13.5 (down from -14.5) | SP+ projection: USC by 9.8 | FPI projection: USC by 19.2
Early Saturday
Nebraska at No. 4 Ohio State (noon, Fox). Nebraska seeks to rebound against a hungry Ohio State looking to showcase its dominance following a much-needed break.
Current line: Buckeyes -25.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 22.0 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 29.6
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (noon, ACCN). Virginia Tech looks to carry its momentum against Georgia Tech, hoping to capitalize on the Yellow Jackets’ inconsistencies this season.
Current line: Hokies -10.5 (up from -9) | SP+ projection: Hokies by 7.9 | FPI projection: Hokies by 5.2
Tulane at North Texas (noon, ESPN2). Tulane looks to continue its unbeaten conference run against a North Texas team eager to challenge for supremacy.
Current line: Tulane -8 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 3.6 | FPI projection: Tulane by 12.0
Oklahoma at No. 18 Ole Miss (noon, ESPN). A historical matchup with intriguing implications for both programs as they seek to capitalize on any potential opportunities.
Current line: Rebels -20 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 19.6 | FPI projection: Rebels by 17.9
Saturday afternoon
Northwestern at Iowa (3:30 p.m., BTN). Both Northwestern and Iowa have experienced inconsistent play, setting the stage for a potential clash of styles this Saturday.
Current line: Iowa -13.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 14.5 | FPI projection: Iowa by 13.9
Oregon State at California (4 p.m., ESPN2). A pivotal matchup for both teams as they seek to re-establish themselves within the competitive landscape.
Current line: Cal -10 (down from -11) | SP+ projection: Cal by 7.2 | FPI projection: Cal by 9.2
Texas Tech at TCU (2:30 p.m., Fox). Texas Tech faces TCU in a high-stakes matchup that could define the playoff landscape.
Current line: TCU -6.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 7.0 | FPI projection: TCU by 4.0
Bowling Green at Toledo (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). The MAC remains highly competitive, with Toledo looking to solidify its standing amidst a wide-open race.
Current line: Toledo -2.5 | SP+ projection: Toledo by 6.7 | FPI projection: Toledo by 5.7
Saturday evening
Florida State at No. 6 Miami (7 p.m., ESPN). A historical rivalry matchup, Miami looks to maintain its recent dominance against a struggling Florida State offense.
Current line: Miami -21 | SP+ projection: Miami by 22.5 | FPI projection: Miami by 21.2
No. 22 SMU at Duke (8 p.m., ACCN). Two competitive programs face off in an important game for both teams as they pursue playoff aspirations.
Current line: SMU -11.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 5.2 | FPI projection: SMU by 10.3
Michigan State at Michigan (7:30 p.m., BTN). A traditional rivalry, both teams are looking to establish dominance and improve their postseason hopes amidst competitive play.
Current line: Michigan -4 (down from -5) | SP+ projection: Michigan by 13.4 | FPI projection: Michigan by 6.5
Louisiana-Monroe at South Alabama (5 p.m., ESPN+). ULM’s formidable defense faces a challenge with South Alabama’s powerful run offense, making this a compelling matchup.
Current line: USA -7 (down from -8.5) | SP+ projection: USA by 12.2 | FPI projection: USA by 10.2
San José State at Fresno State (8 p.m., truTV). A significant rivalry showdown as both programs seek to enhance their standings within the Mountain West Conference.
Current line: Fresno -4.5 (down from -6) | SP+ projection: Fresno by 0.5 | FPI projection: Fresno by 3.6
Late Saturday
Washington State at San Diego State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). Even after last week’s loss, Washington State remains a thrilling team to watch as they pursue an impressive season finish.
Current line: Wazzu -14.5 | SP+ projection: Wazzu by 17.0 | FPI projection: Wazzu by 14.0
Smaller-school showcase
Smaller school matchups provide excitement, with several crucial games worth tracking this weekend.
Division III: No. 19 Wisconsin-Whitewater at No. 8 Wisconsin-Platteville (2 p.m., local streaming). Expect a thrilling matchup as Wisconsin-Whitewater aims to reclaim its dominance against a challenging Wisconsin-Platteville team.
SP+ projection: UWW by 1.6.
Division II: No. 3 Ferris State at No. 1 Grand Valley State (3 p.m., FloFootball). The stakes are high in the Anchor-Bone Classic, a historic rivalry as Ferris State seeks to assert its legacy against the top-ranked Grand Valley State.
SP+ projection: Ferris State by 0.6.
FCS: No. 4 South Dakota at No. 3 South Dakota State (7:30 p.m., ESPNU). In another intriguing matchup, South Dakota looks to leverage its strong recent performances against a formidable South Dakota State team.
SP+ projection: SDSU by 2.4.
Interview with Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer on Week 9 College Football Preview
Editor: Welcome, Bill! Thanks for joining us today to discuss this exciting Week 9 in college football. Let’s dive right in. You referenced the charm of unpredictable matchups earlier in your article. Can you elaborate on what makes this week particularly compelling?
Bill Connelly: Absolutely! This week is packed with electrifying storylines—there are five ranked-vs-ranked matchups and key implications for conference titles. LSU and Texas A&M, for instance, are both on six-game winning streaks, which sets the stage for a thrilling matchup. It’s captivating to see how teams that started rocky can rebound and contend for the SEC title.
Editor: Speaking of LSU and Texas A&M, what are the key factors you’re watching in their matchup?
Bill Connelly: Both teams have improved dramatically in recent weeks. For LSU, quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has been critical, ranking highly in QBR. Their defense has also become more aggressive under coordinator Blake Baker. On the other side, A&M’s running back Le’Veon Moss and quarterback Conner Weigman are crucial for maintaining offensive stability. The battle in the trenches will be pivotal; can A&M’s offensive line handle LSU’s quick defense?
Editor: Switching gears to the Big Ten, what’s the buzz surrounding the Illinois vs. Oregon game this weekend?
Bill Connelly: Illinois has a chance to make a statement. They’ve regained form recently and ideally want to disrupt the big three—Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State. Facing Oregon, who has a high-powered offense, will test Illinois’ defense. If they can pull off an upset, they’ll dramatically shift the narrative in the Big Ten.
Editor: You also mentioned some crucial Group of 5 games this week. What should fans specifically focus on there?
Bill Connelly: The matchups between Boise State and UNLV, and Notre Dame and Navy, are crucial. Boise State has had a strong season so far, but UNLV is on the rise under Barry Odom. Both UNLV and Navy have historical significance in their games, striving to prove they can compete against top-tier programs. The stakes are high, as victories could refine playoff chances for these teams.
Editor: To wrap things up, as the chaos of the college football season unfolds this week, what can fans expect in terms of surprises or upsets?
Bill Connelly: Week 9 always seems to have its surprises. According to the SP+ projections, teams like Indiana and Penn State might not be as secure in their wins as expected. The unpredictability can lead to significant shifts in rankings. Fans should strap in for a rollercoaster weekend—who doesn’t love a good upset?
Editor: Thanks so much for your insights, Bill! We’re looking forward to an exciting weekend of college football.
Bill Connelly: Thank you! Can’t wait to see how everything plays out!
He narrative in the Big Ten and potentially position themselves for College Football Playoff discussions. Oregon is certainly formidable, especially with their quarterback Dillon Gabriel, but if Illinois can bring their balanced offensive scheme to bear, they could surprise a lot of people.
Editor: What about Indiana’s chances against Washington? They’ve been on a high after their big win last week.
Bill Connelly: Indiana is riding some momentum, but the loss of their starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke is significant. Tayven Jackson will need to step up in a big way against a Washington team that can exploit weaknesses. The Hoosiers’ defense has yet to face a consistently strong offense, so this will be a major test for them. If they can hold Washington in the red zone, they could pull off the upset, but they need Jackson to be efficient and confident.
Editor: There are also some intriguing matchups in the Group of 5, particularly with Boise State and UNLV. What are your thoughts on that game?
Bill Connelly: Both teams have a lot to play for, particularly with UNLV having a resurgence. Boise State traditionally has been a powerhouse, but if UNLV can leverage their growing confidence and home-field advantage, it could make for a close contest. Boise’s offense led by Ashton Jeanty will be crucial in dictating the pace of the game. It’s a crucial matchup in the Group of 5 landscape, and both teams are motivated to prove themselves.
Editor: Before we wrap up, what games are you most keenly watching this weekend?
Bill Connelly: I’m particularly excited about the Illinois vs. Oregon game, as it’s a massive opportunity for Illinois and could reshape the playoff picture. Additionally, Texas and Vanderbilt is one I’m watching closely because it could show how good Texas truly is. Lastly, any game involving the Big 12 teams, especially BYU at UCF, will have significant title implications, making both those matchups must-watch games this Saturday.
Editor: Thanks for your insights, Bill! It’s going to be an exhilarating weekend of college football.
Bill Connelly: My pleasure! I can’t wait to see how everything unfolds.
