Russia has provided Yemeni Houthi militiamen with satellite data useful for targeting Western ships transiting the Red Sea with drones and missiles. This is what the Wall Street Journal writes exclusively, citing a well-informed source and two European defense officials on condition of anonymity. The data was transmitted through members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Pasdaran, in contact with the Houthis in Yemen, one of the sources said. Russia, the newspaper points out, supported the Iran-backed Houthis who the United States designates as a terrorist group. More generally, the newspaper continues, the Kremlin has sought to fuel instability from the Middle East to Asia to create problems for the United States, analysts say. “For Russia any outbreak anywhere in the world is good news, because it diverts the world’s attention from Ukraine and where the United States needs to commit resources (Patriot systems or artillery shells). With the Middle East at stake , it is clear where the United States will choose to invest,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a Berlin-based think tank.
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The Houthis began launching their attacks in the Red Sea, where ships travel to and from the Suez Canal, late last year to protest Israel’s land invasion of Gaza, and have continued them in first months of this year. In total, militants have struck more than 100 ships since November 2023, sinking two and hijacking another. Attacks that caused major disruption to global trade, as shippers were forced to divert ships for a period south around the Cape of Good Hope, making a longer and more expensive journey. Nearly one in 10 barrels of oil shipped around the world every day passes through Bab al-Mandab, the strait that separates the Red Sea from the Indian Ocean. Tanker traffic through that route was 77% lower in August 2024 than in October 2023, according to Windward, a maritime intelligence firm. The United States has vowed to protect international shipping lanes and, in December last year, launched a multinational naval coalition to escort ships passing through the strait. By April, the United States had spent about $1 billion on munitions to disable Houthi drones and missiles and protect shipping in the Red Sea. Since then, the US has gone further and earlier this month sent B-2 Spirit bombers to target Houthi arsenals.
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Interview with Alexander Gabuev, Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Editor: Thank you for joining us today, Alexander. Recent reports suggest that Russia is providing satellite data to Houthi militiamen in Yemen. Can you explain the implications of this development in the context of regional security?
Gabuev: Thank you for having me. The provision of satellite data by Russia to the Houthis is significant because it enhances the group’s capabilities to target Western shipping in the Red Sea. This not only poses a direct threat to maritime security but also raises concerns about the broader geopolitical consequences of increased Iranian and Russian influence in the region.
Editor: How do you see this move fitting into Russia’s larger strategic objectives?
Gabuev: For Russia, any destabilizing event anywhere in the world serves its interests by diverting attention and resources from Ukraine. By fueling conflicts in the Middle East, Russia can complicate U.S. engagement and force Washington to allocate resources to address emerging threats rather than focusing solely on the situation in Ukraine.
Editor: Analysts have noted that the Houthis are designated as a terrorist group by the U.S. How does their alignment with Russia and Iran impact the dynamics of U.S. foreign policy?
Gabuev: The alignment certainly complicates U.S. foreign policy. It creates a challenging situation for the Biden administration as it attempts to balance its commitments to allies in the region while addressing the evolving realities on the ground. As the conflict in Yemen interacts with broader U.S. interests, there will likely be pressure to engage more robustly.
Editor: Given this context, what should we expect from the U.S. in response to these developments?
Gabuev: I believe we can expect an increase in U.S. military presence and support for its allies in the region. Moreover, there may be calls to rethink engagement strategies to counter both Iranian and Russian influence. The unfolding situation may also prompt diplomatic initiatives aimed at stabilizing the region.
Editor: Thank you, Alexander, for sharing your insights on this critical issue. Your perspective sheds light on the complex interplay of regional geopolitics in the face of ongoing conflicts.
Gabuev: Thank you for the opportunity to discuss this important topic.
Interview with Alexander Gabuev, Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Editor: Thank you for joining us today, Alexander. Recent reports suggest that Russia is providing satellite data to Houthi militiamen in Yemen. Can you explain the implications of this development in the context of regional security?
Gabuev: Thank you for having me. The provision of satellite data by Russia to the Houthis is significant because it enhances the group’s capabilities to target Western shipping in the Red Sea. This not only poses a direct threat to maritime security but also raises concerns about the broader geopolitical consequences of increased Iranian and Russian influence in the region.
Editor: How do you see this move fitting into Russia’s larger strategic objectives?
Gabuev: For Russia, any destabilizing event anywhere in the world serves its interests by diverting attention and resources from Ukraine. By fueling conflicts in the Middle East, Russia can complicate U.S. engagement and force Washington to allocate resources to address emerging threats rather than focusing solely on the situation in Ukraine.
Editor: Given the Houthis’ recent attacks on shipping—over 100 strikes since late last year—what do you think the response from the U.S. and its allies should be?
Gabuev: The U.S. has already taken significant measures, including the establishment of a multinational naval coalition to protect shipping lanes. However, a more robust and coordinated response may be necessary to deter Houthi aggression, which, fueled by Russian support, is likely to persist. Strengthening diplomatic efforts in the region, alongside military support for allies, will be crucial in addressing this growing threat.
Editor: what can we expect in terms of the future dynamics in the Red Sea region with these developments?
Gabuev: The dynamics are certainly shifting. As the Houthis enhance their capabilities and the U.S. is forced to spread its resources, we may see increased tension in the waters off Yemen. The potential for broader conflict exists if these attacks continue unchecked. Therefore, it’s essential for the international community to engage proactively to ensure maritime security and regional stability.
