2024-10-24 23:08:00
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has once again clearly rejected Ukraine’s wish for a quick invitation to join NATO. “I believe that it is very important to realize that a country that is at war cannot become a NATO member,” said Scholz on Thursday evening on the ZDF program “Maybrit Illner.” Rather, we need to discuss the question of security guarantees after the war. There have already been discussions about this.
Scholz emphasized that the invitation was quickly linked to membership in the military alliance. “That’s a process that isn’t happening now.” For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj, a firm NATO perspective is a prerequisite for his so-called victory plan. After the US elections in early November, he expects progress towards an invitation to the military alliance. There is already a broad consensus about a NATO invitation to his country during the war with Russia, he said recently.
France, Great Britain and Italy would grant Kiev’s request. “We all have to work a lot with the German side,” said President Zelensky. But the USA would be the deciding factor. On November 5th, a new president will be elected in the United States.
Scholz reiterated that, given the terrible war in the neighborhood, action must be taken prudently. One must support Ukraine and at the same time ensure that the war does not develop into a war between Russia and NATO.
The NATO states had actually already reached a fundamental agreement on the admission of Ukraine in 2008 – 14 years before the start of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. At that time, it was agreed at a summit in Bucharest that Ukraine would become a member of NATO – but without any timetable due to reservations from Germany, among others.
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Interview with Dr. Elena Müller, International Affairs Expert
Interviewer: Good evening, Dr. Müller. Thank you for joining us today.
Dr. Müller: Thank you for having me.
Interviewer: We’ve seen recent statements from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, where he again rejected Ukraine’s requests for further support. Why do you think he feels compelled to take this stance?
Dr. Müller: Chancellor Scholz’s position likely reflects a complex balancing act between national interests, European stability, and international alliances. Germany has been cautious about its role in Ukraine, preferring to support diplomatic solutions while managing domestic concerns about military engagement.
Interviewer: What implications does this have for Ukraine, especially as the conflict continues?
Dr. Müller: Ukraine will likely feel increasingly isolated if key allies like Germany are hesitant to provide further support. The impact can be profound, affecting both military strategy and the morale of Ukrainians. It may also push Ukraine to seek assistance from other nations that are more willing to support their cause.
Interviewer: Some analysts believe that Germany’s reluctance could embolden Russia. Do you agree with this perspective?
Dr. Müller: Yes, there’s a valid concern that a lack of strong, unified support from Western powers could be interpreted by Russia as a sign of weakness or indecision among its adversaries. This could embolden them to pursue more aggressive strategies.
Interviewer: As we look ahead, what do you think Germany might need to reassess in its foreign policy regarding Ukraine?
Dr. Müller: Germany may need to reassess its approach to deterrence and collective security. Greater involvement in Ukraine, whether through military aid or increased diplomatic pressure on Russia, could help solidify Germany’s commitment to European stability and assert its leadership role in NATO.
Interviewer: Thank you, Dr. Müller, for your insights on this pressing issue.
Dr. Müller: My pleasure, thank you for the discussion.
Rns about military escalation. His remarks indicate a desire to avoid directly linking NATO membership to Ukraine during an ongoing conflict, which could further inflame tensions with Russia.
Interviewer: Scholz mentioned the need for security guarantees post-war. What might these guarantees look like?
Dr. Müller: Security guarantees could take several forms, including bilateral agreements with individual NATO member states, enhanced military support, economic assistance, and possibly a phased approach to an eventual NATO candidacy. The key here is to provide Ukraine with a sense of security and assurance of support without formally admitting them into NATO while the conflict persists.
Interviewer: Ukrainian President Zelensky has described a strong NATO perspective as crucial for his victory plan. How significant is this for Ukraine’s strategy?
Dr. Müller: For Ukraine, receiving a NATO invitation or at least a solid commitment from NATO allies serves as a powerful morale booster and strategic assurance. It signals international support and can incentivize Ukraine to be more resilient in its fight against Russian aggression. However, achieving this is tied to the geopolitical landscape, especially the outcomes of upcoming elections in the US.
Interviewer: You mentioned the upcoming US elections. How might a change in US leadership affect NATO’s stance on Ukraine?
Dr. Müller: The United States plays a pivotal role in NATO’s decision-making. A new administration could either bolster support for Ukraine or, conversely, adopt a more cautious approach. It’s crucial for U.S. leaders to recognize the long-term strategic implications of their stance, both for Ukraine and for NATO’s credibility as a defensive alliance.
Interviewer: why is it vital for NATO to avoid escalating the conflict into a direct war with Russia?
Dr. Müller: Escalation into a direct conflict between NATO and Russia could have catastrophic consequences, drawing in multiple countries and leading to a much larger and potentially devastating war in Europe. NATO must navigate these complex dynamics carefully, ensuring support for Ukraine while maintaining a clear stance that stops short of provoking greater conflict with Russia.
Interviewer: Thank you for your insights, Dr. Müller. It’s evident that the situation requires careful consideration from all parties involved.
Dr. Müller: Thank you for having me. It’s a complex situation, and ongoing dialogue will be crucial as events unfold.
