Life is not chess which requires complete or comprehensive information in every respect. Life is like poker in which we are trying to make the best decisions based on limited information.
We can never ignore the fact that all knowledge is hidden in numbers and symbols. In the modern world, a mathematical principle (Bayes’ Theorem) is guiding everything from medical testing to artificial intelligence.
The seemingly simple equation of the 18th century Rizbyrian minister and amateur mathematician continues to aid us today in predicting everything from the weather to the future.
Award-winning science writer Tom Shivers’ book ‘Every Thing is Predictable’ tells us amazing things about this simple equation. The book has also been nominated for the Royal Society Trivedi Science Book Prize this year. This book explains well how to predict the future.
Distant parts of the universe can be predicted for thousands of years. Even a few days later talk about the weather cannot be done with full accuracy.
There are many things we say based on available information or past experience rather than any level of insight. By taking a good look at what is happening in our environment, we can make very accurate predictions.
#Predicting #future #claims #science #World
Interview with Tom Shivers, Author of “Every Thing is Predictable”
Interviewer: Thank you for joining us today, Tom! Your book, “Every Thing is Predictable,” has garnered significant attention, especially with its nomination for the Royal Society Trivedi Science Book Prize. In the context of your work, how do you see the comparison between life and games like chess and poker?
Tom Shivers: Thank you for having me! That’s a fascinating comparison. Life, unlike chess, doesn’t always provide us with all the information we need to make decisions. Chess requires comprehensive knowledge and foresight, while poker teaches us to make the best decisions based on limited information and uncertainty. This analogy perfectly frames how we navigate our everyday lives, where we often find ourselves trying to read between the lines and anticipate outcomes without having all the data.
Interviewer: You’ve mentioned Bayes’ Theorem in your book. Can you explain why this 18th-century principle is still relevant today?
Tom Shivers: Absolutely! Bayes’ Theorem offers a mathematical framework to update our beliefs based on new evidence. This is incredibly powerful in today’s data-driven world. Whether we’re analyzing the accuracy of medical tests or making predictions in artificial intelligence, Bayes’ Theorem helps us refine our predictions as new information becomes available. It essentially empowers us to make better-informed decisions, much like calculating odds in poker.
Interviewer: How does your book tie into this idea of predicting the future based on limited information?
Tom Shivers: In “Every Thing is Predictable,” I delve into how we can leverage statistical principles, particularly Bayes’ Theorem, to enhance our predictive capabilities. The book illustrates various real-world applications—from forecasting the weather to making informed decisions in business—showcasing that while uncertainty is inherent, we can still navigate it effectively. It’s about understanding patterns and probabilities in our lives.
Interviewer: What messages do you hope readers take away from your book, especially in terms of decision-making?
Tom Shivers: I want readers to grasp that while we can’t always predict the future with complete certainty, we can significantly improve our decision-making by applying mathematical concepts like Bayes’ Theorem. Embracing uncertainty as part of life and using statistical reasoning can lead to better choices, even when the odds are stacked against us.
Interviewer: Thank you for sharing your insights, Tom. Your view on predicting the future amidst uncertainty is truly enlightening.
Tom Shivers: Thank you! I appreciate the opportunity to discuss these important ideas.
Interview with Tom Shivers, Author of “Every Thing is Predictable”
Interviewer: Thank you for joining us today, Tom! Your book, Every Thing is Predictable, has garnered significant attention, especially with its nomination for the Royal Society Trivedi Science Book Prize. In the context of your work, how do you see the comparison between life and games like chess and poker?
Tom Shivers: Thank you for having me! That’s a fascinating comparison. Life, unlike chess, doesn’t always provide us with all the information we need to make decisions. Chess requires comprehensive knowledge and foresight, while poker teaches us to make the best decisions based on limited information and uncertainty. This analogy perfectly frames how we navigate our everyday lives, where we often find ourselves trying to read between the lines and anticipate outcomes without having all the data at our disposal.
Interviewer: You’ve mentioned Bayes’ Theorem in your book. Can you explain why this 18th-century principle is still relevant today?
Tom Shivers: Absolutely! Bayes’ Theorem offers a mathematical framework to update our beliefs based on new evidence. This is incredibly powerful in today’s data-driven world. Whether we’re analyzing the accuracy of medical tests or making predictions in artificial intelligence, Bayes’ Theorem helps us refine our predictions as new information becomes available. It essentially empowers us to make better-informed decisions, much like calculating odds in poker.
Interviewer: You talk about predictions in your book, specifically in relation to nature and the environment. Can you give us some examples of what we can accurately predict using available data?
Tom Shivers: Certainly! We can predict a wide range of natural phenomena with impressive accuracy, such as sunrise and sunset times, eclipses, and even global climate trends. For instance, based on current data, we can reasonably forecast population growth patterns until the mid-21st century, as well as emerging trends in global temperatures. While some aspects of the future remain uncertain, such predictions are grounded in rigorous data analysis.
Interviewer: It sounds like there’s a fine line between certainty and uncertainty in predictions. How do you address this in your work?
Tom Shivers: That’s an important point! While we can make predictions with a high degree of confidence in some areas, there will always be uncertainties, particularly with complex systems like weather. My book emphasizes the importance of understanding and accepting these uncertainties while striving to improve our predictive capabilities through data and probabilistic reasoning, like that found in Bayes’ Theorem.
Interviewer: With such powerful tools at our disposal, do you think people underestimate their ability to make informed predictions about the future?
Tom Shivers: Definitely! Many people often overlook the insights that can be drawn from data. By consciously applying principles like Bayes’ Theorem to everyday decisions, we can significantly enhance our understanding of probability and outcomes, allowing us to navigate uncertainties more effectively. Embracing data-driven decision-making can empower individuals and communities alike.
Interviewer: Thank you, Tom, for sharing your insights with us today. It’s clear that an understanding of predictive mathematics can greatly enhance our decision-making processes in life.
Tom Shivers: Thank you! It’s been a pleasure discussing these ideas, and I hope readers find inspiration in considering how they can apply these concepts in their own lives.
