Fact check: How big are CO2 emissions from the Ukraine war?

Fact check: How big are CO2 emissions from the Ukraine war?

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Assessment: The war in Ukraine has an impact on the global climate as significant amounts of CO2 are emitted into the atmosphere. However, the quantities are not comparable to countries like Germany.

Verification: The fact that the viral post talks about a “20-month ongoing war in Ukraine” suggests that the false claim has been circulating online for some time. The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine has now been going on for over two and a half years.

The study cited as evidence is said to come from the University of Heidelberg and “calculated” that the war emitted as much CO2 “as Germany could not produce in 600 years” – that is greatly exaggerated.

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Fact check: How big are CO2 emissions from the Ukraine war?

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First of all, Germany’s CO2 emissions: According to the German Federal Environment Agency, Austria’s neighboring country released 746 million tons of greenhouse gases in 2022. In 2023 it was 674 million tons.

A study by, among others, Dutch climate researcher Lennard de Klerk concluded that 120 million tons of CO2 emissions equivalent were emitted in the first 18 months of the war. 24 months after the start of the war, CO2 emissions had risen to 175 million tons of CO2 equivalents, according to a recent publication by the study authors. That’s only around a quarter of what Germany emits in a year alone.

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A comparison of CO2 emissions with a country like Austria would be more accurate: According to the Federal Environment Agency, emissions were 72.8 million tons of CO2 equivalents in 2022 and around 69 million tons in 2023.

So what is the alleged study by Heidelberg University all about? These don’t even exist. A spokeswoman for the university said in May 2024 at the request of the German Press Agency (dpa): “We are not aware of the publication of a study of this type – in particular with the statement mentioned – at the University of Heidelberg.”

The narrative behind the false information is similar to claims that either Germany or Austria are only responsible for around two or just 0.2 percent of global CO2 emissions and that climate protection measures therefore have no effect anyway. Several articles and fact checks show that this is misleading.

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