The easiest path to peace would be for Russia to stop its aggression. She doesn’t seem willing to proceed that way. Instead, Russia seeks to reap the benefits of the current war of attrition, which by definition gives an advantage to the country with the most manpower. In June, Putin demanded even more land, namely land defended by the Ukrainian armed forces, as a condition. For Ukraine, silencing Russian weapons is not enough. He has a lot of experience with broken promises and covert actions from previous deals. Ukraine seeks the withdrawal of Russian occupation forces from its territory. This is central to Zelensky’s “peace formula”. This was, and remains, typically the key and inevitable part of Ukrainian thinking. However, it is obvious that the reclamation of huge territories (close to 19%) will not be possible in the near future.
If the Ukrainian position sounds and appears maximalist, then let me say this: No one wants peace more than Ukrainians. The country has been targeted by invaders for 33 months and has been under military attack by the Kremlin for 10 years (since 2014). The economic cost of war can easily be 1 trillion. $ or more and the human cost is unknown (the US Wall Street Journal reported that at least 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 400,000 wounded).
This does not mean that people everywhere are ready to accept the Russian demand for capitulation, including the admission of the enemy’s territorial gains (Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Crimea, etc.). With Russia not slowing down and showing no sign of willingness to compromise, there is clearly a gap between the two sides’ positions. How to square the circle?
Unfortunately, some (including in our country) are promoting ideas to achieve peace at the expense of Ukraine and at the price of settling Russia. The grim spirit of Munich in 1938 is always in the air. The much-discussed China-Brazil “peace plan” should be seen in this light. Any proposal for an unconditional ceasefire implies a freeze on the conflict along current lines (indefinitely), which effectively supports Russian land grabs. In return, Russia will be freed from the vast web of sanctions that have shut it out of the global economy and massively increased its costs through costly sanctions-busting schemes.
Remember that Ukraine’s struggle is not a matter of choice, it is a matter of national survival. However, among some of our Western friends there is a growing sense that Ukraine is doomed to fail and Russia is destined to win. In fact, there is still a real opportunity for Ukraine to, if not completely change the tide of this war, then at least win significant tactical successes and further complicate the Russian war effort. Yes, Ukraine has suffered terribly, and so has Russia. Behind the impassive facade, Putin and his aides know that Russia cannot go on forever. US estimates say it has suffered more than 600,000 casualties, with at least 115,000 dead, although the actual death toll may be much higher. It suffers casualties of around 1,200 men daily and has lost at least 10,000 armored fighting vehicles, including nearly 3,500 tanks.
So to encourage a deal, Ukraine would need serious security guarantees, the likes of which the West has never offered. It would require the pro-Ukraine coalition to double both arms supplies and humanitarian aid. What can happen? A so-called West German solution is much debated: The entry of areas controlled by Ukraine into NATO and the European Union, and an ambiguous status for the occupied territories, with Kiev making it clear that it seeks their eventual return to the motherland. Most Ukrainians at present would not accept this. Ukrainians fear a sell-off.
The current US administration has wrestled with its strategic vision for this war throughout, including its optimal outcome and potential for peace. He has supported Ukraine in the most meaningful way, but, perhaps, he has failed to articulate an idea of what would come next and what would be in America’s best interests. In part, it can be explained by the dynamic nature of the war and the assumption that Ukraine itself will have to decide its own destiny, including how to fight and whether and when to pursue peace. But the first step to any just, long-term settlement is to establish that the Ukrainian people cannot and will never be bullied into submission and dissolution by the Russian imperial state. And that the Allies remain determined and willing to reimagine a Europe that includes brave people who defended its values with their blood.
RAILWAY NETWORKS
Russia’s Insidious Role in Transportation Sabotage
Russia’s heavy reliance on its rail network for military logistics has highlighted the critical role of transportation systems during military conflicts. The rail network is by its nature a long, stable system, almost impossible to defend at any time. Russia’s top leaders may be extremely violent, but they are not stupid. They know that NATO’s European allies also rely heavily on integrated transport networks to move troops, equipment and supplies.
Meanwhile, there are growing signals that Russia is already testing its destructive capabilities on Western networks through sabotage and cyber attacks. France experienced this from suspected Russian sabotage of its own rail networks that marred the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics. Germany has also suffered a series of attacks.
Lessons learned from Ukraine’s own effort to degrade Russia’s rail system offer a blueprint for European nations to protect their own transport networks. Some measures could be the following:
* Reinforcement of physical security at key points. European countries need to strengthen the safety of their rail networks, particularly at key junctions such as signaling points, bridges and junctions.
* Increasing physical surveillance, employing specialized security personnel and creating rapid response teams will reduce the risk of sabotage.
* Improving cyber security to protect transport control systems. Modern transport networks are increasingly dependent on digital control systems. Cyber attacks on these systems can cause disruption across Europe.
* Use of modern technology for real-time monitoring. European governments should integrate advanced technologies such as satellite surveillance, drone reconnaissance and sensors to monitor critical infrastructure.
* Timely exchange of information about potential threats.
* Promoting public awareness and participation in civil defense. Citizens should be committed to spotting and reporting potential sabotage attempts.
* Develop contingency plans for quick repairs. European nations should continue to prepare contingency plans to rapidly repair transportation infrastructure in the event of sabotage, by pre-positioning repair materials and equipment near critical infrastructure points, training specialized teams for rapid recovery, and conducting preparedness exercises .
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