The German Book Trade Peace Prize at the Frankfurt Book Fair always gets a lot of attention. Last year it was given to the writer Salman Rushdie under special security conditions, two years ago, at a fair where there was a lot of talk about the war in Ukraine, this award was given to the Ukrainian writer Serhiy Zhadan, who himself gave an incendiary speech in Frankfurt.
This year, this prize is dedicated to the American journalist and historian Anne Applebaum. In her books, she explores the nature of totalitarianism, paying particular attention to Russian terror. After the start of the war in Ukraine, she also speaks loudly about the need to stop Russia. In a recent interview with The Atlantic, she said that “this war will only end when the Russians run out of resources – and their resources are not infinite – or when they finally realize that Ukraine’s allies are certain that Ukraine will not surrender and that Russia cannot to win”.
ZUMAPRESS / Scanpix nuotr./Anne Applebaum
Where is the power of autocracies?
At the beginning of the press conference on Friday, A. Applebaum said that she felt a bit strange participating in the press conference, because she herself works as a journalist. When she found out that this year’s award was for her, she was surprised: “Are you sure you’re giving it to me?”
During the meeting, she spoke on a wide range of topics, from the rise of autocracies to the current wars in the world or the elections in the United States.
Her latest book, Autocracy, Inc., focuses on the rise of autocracies around the world. A. Applebaum says that recently we have seen a new phenomenon in the world – a network of dictatorships, autocracies, which are not united by one ideology, goal or project, they act opportunistically and have one enemy: “And that enemy is us”. By the way, when talking with A. Applebaum, she always emphasizes that she doesn’t like the word Western countries, the word “democratic world countries” is much more acceptable to her, because there are democracies both in Asia and in other parts of the world.
She mentions Russia’s war in Ukraine as a good example of how autocracies interact with each other – it uses drones from Iran and soldiers from North Korea. What makes autocratic regimes strong is the new business models they use and the new surveillance models and propaganda they spread.
The business model, when state-controlled companies are actively used in politics, was the first to be tested by Russia, but now other countries are also using it successfully. Digital technology makes it possible to track people better and spread your propaganda in a coordinated manner. “We’re a little late in understanding how it works and how important it is,” Applebaum said.
We are a bit late in understanding how it works and how important it is.
True, she said that autocracies have weaknesses. Let’s say, unlike democracies, where the election mechanisms are clear, there is no clarity about who will replace Vladimir Putin and how it will happen.
Audrius Ožalo/ 15min photo/Anne Applebaum at the Frankfurt Book Fair
The world is not divided as it was during the Cold War
To the question of whether it is possible to destroy autocratic networks, A. Applebaum answered that, first of all, it is necessary to understand that the current system is not an alliance, the countries belonging to it are different, and there are soft autocracies that are interested in relations with democracies. “I don’t believe that the world is black and white, you can’t divide the world into two parts like during the Cold War,” said A. Applebaum. Therefore, in her opinion, it is necessary to act through diplomatic channels – to talk even with autocratic states. Let’s say that diplomatic means should be used with the countries that are helping Russia in the war in Ukraine. She says she envisions even Russia moving in a different direction than it is now.
To the remark, whether this desire to talk with autocracies did not also lead to the war in Ukraine, because it was imagined that it is possible to talk with Russia, and whether this is not naive, she replied that the imagination heard in Washington too, that there is no need to talk, is no less naive with China.
But she acknowledged that as autocracies increasingly aggressively spread their ideas on social networks, in the media they own, we need to think about how we speak to the rest of the world, how we present the liberal way of life. Because autocracies do not sleep – let’s say China spends millions of dollars on programs and training to spread its message in Asia, Africa.
Audrius Ožalo/ 15min photo/Anne Applebaum at the Frankfurt Book Fair
Is peace possible?
Is peace possible in today’s world? “True peace is when you have an open relationship with governments, and we’re not in that situation right now,” Applebaum says. In addition, as the writer and journalist claims, there is no single formula for dealing with war situations. In the world today, we have three wars raging in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan. Each situation requires different measures.
Speaking about Ukraine, she said that we have to admit that we did not adequately arm Ukraine, we did not arm ourselves, we did not prevent Russia, and arming is difficult to avoid in this situation. Sometimes defense is the way out – said A. Applebaum. In Sudan, according to her, there is room for diplomacy, although it is not easy. In the Middle East, a combination of both measures is needed – convincing Iran that Israel has a right to exist, and convincing Israel that a Palestinian state has a right to exist.
At the end of the press conference, she talked about the election in the United States, although she admitted that she does not know who will win the election – a few thousand votes in Pennsylvania could decide the election. When asked what would happen if Donald Trump was re-elected as president, she said that first of all we need to understand that he cares about his power and his money first: “One thing is clear, he will not be the leader of a democratic coalition fighting against autocracies.”
If Kamala Harris won, she would try to be the leader of the democratic world, but A. Applebaum pointed out that the large number of D. Trump’s voters testifies that the USA has a very strong autocratic current, so Europe should look ahead. “If Europe wants to be a democratic force, it has to think about how to do it without the United States,” said A. Applebaum, who warned that US support for Europe could drop sharply.
A. Applebaum has been awarded many important prizes, she was awarded the Pulitzer Prize for the book “The History of the Gulag”. Her books “History of the Gulag”, “Iron Curtain” and “Red Famine” were published in Lithuanian. This piece 15min was awarded as the best translated non-fiction book in the annual book selection.
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